Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment

Footnotes

1. EAVE II | The University of Edinburgh

2. The REACT 1 programme | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

3. Office for National Statistics (24 September 2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

4. Public Health Scotland. Covid-19 Daily Dashboard.

5. Public Health Scotland (22 September 2021). PHS COVID-19 Statistical Report

6. Public Health England (9 September 2021). Duration of protection of COVID-19 vaccines against clinical disease.

7. WHO (13 December 2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted?

8. SAGE. Insights on transmission of COVID-19 with a focus on the hospitality, retail and leisure sector.

9. Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: NTIA Scotland Briefing Paper

10. Previous restrictions have been subject to separate BRIA. For instance, see: Nightclubs (p54-71): The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk); Stadia and Events (p90-118):The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk).

11. See https://www.gov.scot/publications/monthly-gdp-july-2021/

12. BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 38 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

13. Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: NTIA Scotland Briefing Paper

14. Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_4709_3 on 21-23 September). Methodology: This survey has been conducted using an online interview administered to members of the YouGov Plc UK panel of 800,000+ individuals who have agreed to take part in surveys. Emails are sent to panellists selected at random from the base sample. The e-mail invites them to take part in a survey and provides a generic survey link. Once a panel member clicks on the link they are sent to the survey that they are most required for, according to the sample definition and quotas (the sample definition could be "GB adult population" or a subset such as "GB adult females"). Invitations to surveys do not expire and respondents can be sent to any available survey. The responding sample is weighted to the profile of the sample definition to provide a representative reporting sample. The profile is normally derived from census data or, if not available from the census, from industry accepted data. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).

15. Scottish Government (2020), Scottish Household Survey 2019: Culture and Heritage Report, Table 3.3. Scottsh household survey 2019: culture and heritage - report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

16. Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_4708_rb on 21-23 September). These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (23%)'. Methodology as per footnote 14.

17. Scottish Annual Business Survey, Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS) 2018, Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2018 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot). Note that SABS excludes financial sector & parts of agriculture and the public sector.

18. For instance, the RBS Markit Report on Jobs, September 2021 reported continued strong growth in August in temporary and permanent Hotel & Catering staff vacancies in Scotland, albeit after unprecedented declines in spring 2020.

19. Live Events Reinsurance Scheme - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

20. S1216_Considerations_in_implementing_longerterm_baseline_NPIs.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

21. Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_302_rb_2 on 24-26 August).These figures exclude those who answered: 'Not applicable - would never visit such a venue/attend such an event anyway (20%)'. Methodology as per footnote 14.

22. Scottish Government (2021). Coronavirus Fortnightly Tracker Weeks 66-79 – Data Tables from 29 June to 23 September 2021 (Question SG_4707 on 21-23 September). Methodology as per footnote 14.

23. Présentation PowerPoint (ipsos.com)

24. COVID certificates: where do the public stand? | YouGov

25. Welsh Government (17 September 2021). Covid pass for events & nightclubs announced

26. COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

27. Proposal for mandatory COVID certification in a Plan B scenario: call for evidence - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

28. Live Events Reinsurance Scheme - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

29. Events Industry defined here using the following SIC2007 codes:

5621 : Event catering activities

9001 : Performing arts

9002 : Support activities to performing arts

9004 : Operation of arts facilities

9311 : Operation of sports facilities

9312 : Activities of sport clubs

68202 : Letting and operating of conference and exhibition centres

74209 : Other photographic activities (not including portrait and other specialist photography and film processing)

79909 : Other reservation service activities (not including activities of tourist guides)

82301 : Activities of exhibition and fair organizers

82302 : Activities of conference organizers

93199 : Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners)

30. Gross value added (GVA) represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. It is the value of an industry's outputs less the value of intermediate inputs used in the production process.

31. Scotland's Labour Market: People Places and Regions – background tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

32. As per previous work for Nightclub related BRIAs (e.g. p54-71: The Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions and Requirements) (Local Levels) (Scotland) Regulations 2020 (legislation.gov.uk) –Nightclub businesses are defined here as non-charity licensed clubs (within Standard Industrial Classification code 56.301). Nightclubs and sexual entertainment businesses in Scotland fall under this classification. The SIC code definition of nightclubs used here does not align perfectly with the definition of nightclubs used in certification regulations. These statistics therefore represent a best estimate.

33. Gross value added (GVA) represents the amount that individual businesses, industries or sectors contribute to the economy. It is the value of an industry's outputs less the value of intermediate inputs used in the production process.

34. Night Time Industries Association (2021), Covid Status Certification: NTIA Scotland Briefing Paper