Coronavirus (COVID-19) domestic vaccine certification: business and regulatory impact assessment

Competition Assessment

• Will the measure directly or indirectly limit the number or range of suppliers?

Unclear. Measure will potentially restrict some consumers' ability to attend late night venues with alcohol, dancing and music and live large scale events, and potential displacement to less regulated alternative venues and settings. This may place increased pressure on businesses involved in these activities through reduced footfall and turnover, with consequent pressures on business viability. This pressure may encourage business exit if sufficiently severe and long-lasting. However, it will also be influenced by consumers' decisions around vaccine uptake, and the duration and severity of the wider pandemic.

• Will the measure limit the ability of suppliers to compete?

Unclear. The measure primarily impacts on consumers' ability to access venues and live events. However, there may be potential for displacement of unvaccinated consumers to other, less regulated settings. Similarly the displacement of vaccinated customers towards venues operating with Certification could occur.

• Will the measure limit suppliers' incentives to compete vigorously?

No. Measure will potentially restrict some consumers' ability to attend late night venues with alcohol, dancing and music and live large scale events, with potential for displacement to other less regulated settings (e.g. pubs) or greater competition for events providers and venues from other geographies. This may strengthen suppliers' incentives to compete across different markets.

• Will the measure limit the choices and information available to consumers?

Yes. Consumer choice of evening and live entertainment among those unable to obtain proof of vaccination may be reduced in terms of attending late night venues with alcohol, dancing and music and some live events. However, this would be as a consequence of those consumers' decisions around vaccination take-up and would be temporary, should affected consumers decide to take up offers of vaccination.