Draft climate change plan: draft third report on policies and proposals 2017-2032

2. Scotland - climate friendly, climate ready, climate just

2.1 Low carbon Scotland is a better Scotland

2.1.1 Since 2007, this Government's central purpose has been to create a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth. Scotland's Economic Strategy (2015) sets out an overarching framework for how we aim to achieve a more productive, cohesive and fairer Scotland. It forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy. It prioritises boosting investment and innovation, supporting inclusive growth and maintaining our focus on increasing internationalisation. This ambition underpins our approach and commitments in the draft Climate Change Plan.

2.1.2 A low carbon Scotland will capitalise on both our natural resources and the talents and skills of our people. It will make better use of our precious natural resources and provide us with greater resilience to volatile international energy and commodity prices. It will stimulate innovation and enterprise in new technologies and industries that ensure Scotland is well placed in the global shift to a low carbon global economy. Simply put, a low carbon Scotland is a better Scotland. We regard it as an essential investment, for the benefit of future generations, in our economy as well as our environment.

2.2 Our pathway to 2032

2.2.1 The section below summarises our decarbonisation pathway out to 2032 as suggested by TIMES, set out by sector. Details can be found in the sector chapters later in this document.

2.2.2 The analysis from the TIMES model is powerful in helping understand future technologies and fuel types, which allows future scenarios to be built up to inform climate change planning. In particular, the analysis from TIMES demonstrates the nature and scale of changes that need to happen on the ground - across our economy - in order to meet our emissions targets. This includes both the use of low carbon fuels and technologies as well as other emission reduction action, including land use and reducing demand from our energy system - for example through improving the fabric of our buildings.

2.2.3 On the ground changes are described as policy outcomes in this draft Plan. By providing a real-life set of changes that must happen, they are the bedrock of our approach, and all the policies and proposals outlined in this draft Plan (in the sector chapters) are intended to realise those policy outcomes.

Figure 1: Pathway to 2032

*Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (including Peatland)

2.2.4 By 2030 Scotland's electricity system will be wholly decarbonised and supply a growing share of Scotland's energy needs. Electricity will be increasingly important as a power source for heat and transport. As a result, the total volume of electricity supplied within Scotland will increase to 2032. System security will be ensured through diverse generation technologies, increased storage, smart grid technologies and improved interconnection. From the late 2020s, Carbon Capture and Storage ( CCS), along with gas from plant material and biomass waste, has the potential to remove CO ₂ from the atmosphere (i.e. negative emissions). CCS will be critical in heat, industry and power sectors.

2.2.5 In services (non-domestic buildings), we will need to achieve near zero carbon emissions by 2032. We will focus our efforts up to 2025 largely on energy efficiency improvements. After 2025 we will prioritise low carbon heat with virtually all natural gas boilers being replaced by low carbon heat technologies by 2032.

2.2.6 In the residential sector, the approach is similar to the services sector although the rate of emissions reduction is slower particularly until 2025 when the focus is on energy efficiency. By taking action across our services and residential sectors our building stock will be largely decarbonised by 2032.

2.2.7 We envisage significant decarbonisation of transport by 2032, with emissions reducing by 32% compared to 2014. Low emission cars and vans will be widespread and becoming the norm; low emission HGVs will be more common; a third of the ferries owned by the Scottish Government will be low carbon; aircraft fleets will be on the cusp of radical new designs; freight infrastructure will feature more efficient HGVs operating from out-of-town consolidation centres; and low emission vehicles will also play a role in energy storage within the wider energy system.

2.2.8 For the industrial sector, our plans are broadly consistent with existing EU and UK regulatory frameworks for industrial emissions with a fall of around 19% by 2032 through a combination of fuel diversification, cost saving energy efficiency and heat recovery, and participation in the EU Emissions Trading System ( EU ETS). Technologies critical to further emissions reduction will be demonstrated at commercial scale by 2030. These measures will enhance industrial productivity, improve competitiveness and realise new manufacturing opportunities in the global market.

2.2.9 In the waste sector we should see emissions continuing to fall as we make progress towards our ambitious waste targets. By 2020, the landfilling of biodegradable municipal waste will be phased out, ahead of the statutory ban that applies from 2021. By 2030 we expect to be in tandem with the UN Sustainable Development Goals to reduce food waste by 50%. In the longer term, we aim to be delivering emissions reductions through a circular economy approach in our business and industry sectors by 2050.

2.2.10 On agriculture our ambition is for Scotland to be among the lowest carbon and most efficient food producers in the world. By 2020, we will work with farmers so that they know the pH of the soil on a third of their improved land to help increase the efficient use of nitrogen fertiliser. We will encourage farmers producing a substantial proportion of Scotland's agricultural output to complete a carbon audit, and by 2030 most farmers will know the nutrient value of their improved soil and will be implementing best practice in nutrient management and application.

2.2.11 In terms of the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry ( LULUCF) sector the draft Plan sets out the Scottish Government's ambitions specifically on forestry and peatland. For peatland, by 2020, 50,000 hectares of degraded peatland will have been restored, from a 1990 baseline, and by 2030 we will have increased this to 250,000 hectares - an improvement of valuable soils in around 20% of Scotland's landmass. By 2050, Scotland's expanded peatlands will be thriving habitats, sustaining a diverse ecosystem and sequestering more carbon than ever before.

2.2.12 By 2032, Scotland's woodland cover will increase from around 18% to 21% of the Scottish land area. To achieve this we will increase our planting rates over time up to 15,000 hectares per year in 2024/25. We will also promote greater use of Scottish timber in UK construction to around 3 million cubic metres by 2031/32 from 2.2 million cubic metres today. By 2050, Scotland's woodlands will be delivering a greater level of ecosystem services, such as natural flood management and biodiversity enhancement.

Table 2-1: Pathway to 2032 (envelopes in MtCO ₂e)

	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032
Agriculture	7.8	7.7	7.7	7.7	7.6	7.5	7.4	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.1	7.1	7.0	7.0	7.0	6.9
Electricity	5.9	4.5	3.2	2.2	1.4	1.0	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	-0.2	-0.5	-0.9	-1.1	-1.3	-1.2
Industry	9.8	9.9	9.8	9.7	9.5	9.2	8.9	8.7	8.5	7.8	7.3	7.5	7.7	8.1	8.3	8.4
Waste	1.7	1.4	1.1	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Transport	12.7	12.6	12.5	12.3	12.2	12.0	11.8	11.5	11.2	10.9	10.5	10.2	9.8	9.4	9.1	8.7
Residential	6.3	5.9	5.6	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.4	5.4	5.2	4.4	3.6	3.0	2.4	1.9	1.6	1.5
Services	2.7	2.4	1.9	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.4	1.3	1.1	0.9	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.1
LULUCF*	-3.8	-3.5	-3.3	-3.0	-2.6	-2.2	-1.7	-1.1	-0.5	0.1	0.8	1.3	1.7	1.9	1.8	1.5

*Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (including Peatland)

2.3 Scotland's climate is changing

2.3.1 This draft Climate Change Plan refers only to emissions reduction. It is not a plan for adapting to a changing climate. However, it is important to understand that climate change is already affecting Scotland. In Scotland the average temperature in the 2000s was 0.90°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average and warmer than any other decade since records began in 1910 ^[2] , and annual rainfall has increased by around 11% over the past century ^[3] . As demonstrated during winter 2015-2016, extreme weather and flooding are immediate and major climate risks; in the longer term, sea level rise is also likely to be an important risk for Scotland.

2.3.2 An independent assessment ^[4] in 2016 by the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK Committee on Climate Change of Scotland's Adaptation Programme ^[5] ( SCCAP) highlighted that Scotland's unique geography creates both resilience and vulnerabilities to the impacts of extreme weather and climate change. Scotland's iconic industries, including forestry, fisheries and whisky, rely on climate-sensitive natural resources. Changes in weather patterns and sea level rise will test our transport, communication, fuel, and energy networks and challenge the delivery of health and social care services.

2.3.3 Supported by the Scottish Government funded Adaptation Scotland programme, climate change adaptation is already well integrated within many key policy areas in Scotland. Recent developments which are strengthening our adaptation response include: the establishment of Scotland's National Centre for Resilience ^[6] , new Flood Risk Management Plans ^[7] , mapping of flood disadvantage ^[8] , new public body reporting duties which include adaptation ^[9] , new indicators developed by ClimateXChange to show how well Scotland is performing across sectors ^[10] , and important locally-based initiatives such as Edinburgh Adapts, Climate Ready Clyde and Aberdeen Adapts.

2.3.4 We will continue to strengthen our adaptation to climate change in the years and decades ahead and the Scottish Government and Adaptation Scotland will work with stakeholders across sectors on the priorities for the next update of the adaptation programme. In doing so, Scotland will also retain a strong focus on climate justice recognising that climate change impacts tend to impact most severely on poorer people and vulnerable communities.

2.3.5 Adapting to the impacts of climate change is a global challenge faced by all countries. The Paris Agreement on climate change links mitigation and adaptation and sets a global goal of reducing vulnerability to climate change. All countries must plan for and take action on adaptation. We will continue to share learning with our counterparts internationally at events such as the third European Climate Change Adaptation Conference to be held in Glasgow in June 2017.

2.4 Scotland - our role as a global citizen

The Paris Agreement

2.4.1 The historic Paris Agreement ^[11] is the first truly global plan to tackle the urgent threat of climate change. Binding in international law, the treaty has been signed by almost 200 countries - including USA, China, EU and UK - and came into force four years early: on 4 November 2016. The agreed international aim is to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, with rapid reductions in emissions to net zero in the second half of this century.

2.4.2 The Paris Agreement followed calls from the G7 leaders of industrialised countries for urgent and concrete action, deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, and a decarbonisation of the global economy this century, as well as strong calls for action from world faith leaders. Current pledges by countries under the Paris Agreement might be enough to limit global temperature rise to around 3°C (although a wide range of outcomes is possible) so more will need to be done.

2.4.3 Other countries must now step up to match Scotland's ambition and actions - we cut our adjusted emissions ^[12] by 45.8% between 1990 and 2014 exceeding our 2020 target of a 42% cut six years early, and we did so while growing our economy. We were second only to Sweden among Western European countries in cutting emissions over this period, with only a very narrow gap now between Scotland's per capita emissions and the EU generally.

2.4.4 The EU, which currently pledges at least 40% emissions cuts by 2030, has committed to play a full part in the mechanisms under the Paris Agreement designed to raise global ambition over time: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC) review in 2018 of the 1.5°C goal; the facilitative dialogue in 2018; mid-century low emissions strategies due by 2020; first global stocktake in 2023; and five-yearly updates to pledges.

Climate justice

2.4.5 Scotland champions climate justice and we hope the Paris Agreement will drive global action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change falling on the poorest and most vulnerable people across the world. £6 million from Scotland's innovative Climate Justice Fund has already supported 11 projects in some of Africa's most vulnerable communities. The First Minister has pledged a further £12 million over five years to support developing countries with an initial £2 million announced for clean water for vulnerable communities in Malawi and £1 million to help developing countries engage with the Paris Agreement.

Text box 2-1: the Climate Change Bill The forthcoming Climate Change Bill

The Scottish Government has committed to playing its part in delivering the Paris Agreement and will be outlining proposals for a new Climate Change Bill later this year.

As stated above, Scotland exceeded the level of the interim 2020 target under the 2009 Act, of a 42% emissions reduction, six years early. The Bill will set a new and more testing 2020 target. It will also increase transparency in how we assess progress to targets, by measuring this on the basis of actual Scottish emissions. Our approach to new emissions reductions targets is based on the best available evidence and we have written to the Climate Change Committee seeking advice on the form, mechanisms and levels of emissions reduction targets in the Bill. The Committee published its public call for evidence in December 2016 and this will close on 1 February 2017. This draft Climate Change Plan sets out proposals and policies to meet existing targets out to 2032 and is a requirement under the 2009 Act.

Brexit

2.4.6 Energy and climate policy has domestic, regional and global implications and connections. The EU's legislative reach, market influence and climate diplomacy are extensive. The EU has led international efforts to secure a global, legally-binding agreement to address climate change, and was instrumental in two decades' worth of complex negotiations with other major economies such as the US, China and India, to deliver the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015. Through the UK's membership, Scotland has benefited from being a direct part of the EU's considerable diplomatic clout in the climate negotiations, projecting our domestic climate leadership internationally, through collective effort with our EU partners.

2.4.7 The Scottish Government has been clear that the referendum result on EU membership does not affect our desire or ability to maintain, enhance and protect our environment. The body of EU legislation that impacts on climate, environmental and energy related issues is complex and wide ranging. The forthcoming negotiations to determine the UK and Scotland's future relationship with Europe will therefore need to consider this important area of policy in detail with a view to safeguarding Scotland's key interests and maintaining our place as a progressive leader on climate action.

2.4.8 In December 2016 the Scottish Government published Scotland's Place in Europe ^[13] , a set of proposals designed to mitigate the risks for Scotland of being taken out of the EU. We believe it is in the interests of both Scotland and the UK that the UK as a whole should remain within the European Single Market, through membership of the European Economic Area and active cooperation in other areas. However, if the UK Government opts to leave against the advice of Scottish Ministers and the clearly expressed wishes of 62% of Scotland's voters in the June 2016 referendum, then the proposals set out a differentiated approach which would allow Scotland to retain single market membership as part of the UK, even if the remainder of the UK is taken out of the single market.