Climate change - draft Scottish national adaptation plan 3 2024 - 2029: consultation analysis

Introduction

Background

As a consequence of climate change, Scotland is already experiencing a range of impacts, such as warmer summers, wetter winters, and rising sea levels. The Met Office’s UK Climate Projections 2018 highlight the substantial impacts of climate change in Scotland, including heavier rainfall, water scarcity, flooding, elevated temperatures, and increased weather variability. Over the last decade from 2010 to 2019, the average temperature rose by 0.69°C compared to the period between 1961 to 1990. Looking ahead, projections from the UK Met Office indicate a trajectory of intensified changes in climate over the coming century. While historic emissions have locked in changes in Scotland’s climate, the extent of future changes will be determined by the success of global efforts to reduce emissions.

Scotland is proactively preparing for these impacts of climate change. The first Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) was released in May 2014, followed by the publication of Climate Ready Scotland: Second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme 2019-2024 in September 2019.^[2] The new Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) 2024-29 is the third plan and builds on the outcome-led approach of its predecessor. SNAP3 responds to the latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA3),^[3] as prepared by an independent statutory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), and adheres to the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Furthermore, SNAP3 aligns with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and Scotland’s National Performance Framework.

The draft SNAP3 proposes adaptation action to climate hazards, acknowledging that people and communities facing multiple disadvantages are often especially affected by the impacts of climate change in Scotland. The draft SNAP3 proposes five long-term outcomes and 22 objectives:

• The Nature Connects outcome includes key policy proposals for the establishment of nature networks in every local authority and enhanced climate resilience in marine ecosystems and the Blue Economy.
• The Communities outcome focuses on collaborative planning and investment partnerships in addition to adapting historical sites and buildings.
• The Public Services and Infrastructure outcome focuses on proposals such as a modernised water industry and a strengthened Public Sector Climate adaptation network.
• The Economy, Business, and Industry outcome includes key policy proposals such as a transformational National Flood Resilience Strategy along with corporate climate disclosures.
• The International Action outcome envisages the creation of an Adaptation and Resilience Knowledge Exchange Network and a Climate Justice Fund.

Consultation overview

In January 2024, the Scottish Government launched a 12-week public consultation to gather views on the policies outlined in Scotland’s draft National Adaptation Plan 3 (SNAP3). The consultation aimed to capture the lived and local experience of the Scottish public with regard to climate change impacts, as well as the views of a wide range of stakeholders from across the Plan’s five outcomes.

Comments on the draft SNAP3 were gathered across varied policy areas, including but not limited to biodiversity, communities, infrastructure, terrestrial and marine environments, planning, transport, health, education, economic development, and agriculture. The draft SNAP3 outlined the Plan’s proposed outcomes, objectives, and key policy proposals. The written consultation posed questions on the draft Plan’s five outcomes, impact assessments, and enabling factors through five closed and 31 open-ended questions for respondents to share their views.

In addition to the written consultation, workshops were facilitated by the Scottish Government with Adaptation Scotland. These were designed to gather insights from either the general public in five different Scottish geographies regarding their lived experience of climate change, or from stakeholders with technical expertise in adaptation, those with a responsibility for the delivery of SNAP3, or those who would be impacted by SNAP3. Workshops hosted by stakeholders and partner organisations were also attended by Scottish Government policy leads who presented on the draft SNAP3.

The insights from this analysis of written consultation responses and workshops will be used by the Scottish Government to shape future policy and inform the development of the final five-year statutory plan. The refined five-year Scottish National Adaptation Plan 3 is due to be published in September 2024, drawing on insights shared through this consultation.

Report structure

• Research approach: providing an overview of the number and type of responses received through the written consultation as well as methods used to analyse them;
• Overarching themes: outlining themes from both the written consultation and workshops, highlighting frequently discussed views, suggestions, and policy recommendations voiced by respondents;
• Written consultation analysis: presenting the analysis of written consultation responses for all 32 questions, drawing out key themes in order of frequency and illustrating findings through charts and quotes;
• Workshop and unstructured email analysis: summarising frequent themes from consultation workshops and unstructured email responses;
• Conclusion: outlining conclusions from across consultation themes, summarising key findings and highlighting divergences between written consultation responses, emails, and workshop contributions.