Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assesment

6. Assessment for Offshore Wind, Wave and Tidal Draft Plan Option Areas - North West

6.1 Offshore Wind

6.1.1 Quantification of Potentially Significant Impacts

Table 28 presents quantified estimates of impacts (Present Value ( PV) costs and GVA (fisheries)) for activities potentially affected by offshore wind development within Draft Plan Option area OWNW1. Quantified cost estimates have been developed for commercial fisheries, recreational boating and shipping. Comments are also provided on activities for which quantified cost estimates could not be provided. No significant benefits have been identified for activities. The impacts of each activity highlighted are briefly described below and further the detail can be found in Appendix C.

Table 29. Present value ( PV) costs (and GVA for fisheries) in £millions for Offshore Wind in the North West Region (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0.11	0.27	0.58
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	1.45	2.90
Total costs		0.11	1.72	3.48

Commercial Fisheries

For OWNW1 Draft Plan Option area, the area that would be occupied by arrays was calculated as being 4.8%, 11.6% and 25.1% for the low, central and high scenarios respectively. The total impact on commercial fisheries from offshore wind development in the North-West Region was £0.11m GVA for the low scenario, rising to £0.58m GVA for the high scenario (over the whole assessment period, discounted). These impacts mainly accrue to the pelagic sector, targeting herring and mackerel, and to a lesser extent accrue to potters and demersal (whitefish) trawlers. The over-15m sector is most affected.

Shipping

The shipping costs have considered the costs to commercial shipping including ferry routes. The assessment has considered the additional fuel costs associated with the route deviation for an average number of shipping movements based on the shipping density within the Draft Plan Option area. There are no ferry routes within the Draft Plan Option areas within the North West SORER. The costs impacts are estimated to be £1.45m PV for the central scenario increasing to £2.90m PV for the high scenario. There are no costs associated with the low scenario.

6.1.2 Other Costs not Quantified

Commercial Fisheries

Wind area OWNW1 overlaps with significant navigation routes from the north-west coast of Scotland heading east and north-east. Development of this area could impact on navigation routes and result in deviation being necessary, particularly under the high scenario, in which 25% of the area is expected to be occupied by arrays. This implies a cost to the fishing industry in terms of steaming time and increased fuel costs to reach fishing grounds, and additional impacts on fishing time available for those vessels limited by days-at-sea regulations. This is most likely to affect vessels from Stornoway (63 under-15m vessels and 17 over-15m vessels are registered here as their home port), Lochinver (9 under-15m vessels and 1 over-15m vessels), Kinlochbervie (9 under-15m vessels and 4 over-15m vessels) and possibly Ullapool (30 under-15m vessels and 11 over-15m vessels) ( MMO, 2013). No significant interactions with cables were identified. It is expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry, and a Memorandum of Understanding is being developed between the fishing industry and Subsea Cables UK (see Appendix C4.2.4). Where fishing vessels' effort is displaced to new areas, rather than lost (as assumed in the worst-case impact assessed quantitatively), there may be impacts in terms of conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.

Energy Generation

Energy generation from differing forms of technology will also lead to competition for transmission capacity which would affect all Draft Plan Option areas.

Military Interests

There is a potential overlap between OWNW1 Draft Plan Option area and the proposed cable route and military practice and exercise areas. In addition OWNW1 has the potential to interfere with underwater communications. The Defence Infrastructure Organisation ( DIO) stated that it was not possible to quantify the economic cost impact that would arise from the loss of military testing facilities, should activity be displaced through wind, wave or tidal arrays. At the time of writing no further information had been received regarding any specific areas of concern in relation to interference with radar or underwater communications.

Recreational boating

The potential impact of future offshore wind tidal energy development within the Draft Plan Option area on investment in recreational boating supply chains has been assessed qualitatively. It is recognised that development in areas which are already challenging to navigate may deter sailors and reduce expenditure in the Region. The risk can be mitigated to some extent through passage planning and awareness, plus the update and circulation of up to date navigational information via charting publications.

Water sports

Water sports activities such as scuba diving, windsurfing and surfing occur in the North West Region, where they are mainly carried out within the potential cable route areas from OWNW1 Draft Plan Option area and landfall. Most of the diving activities are associated with areas of interest and in particular wrecks and where these are known it is highly unlikely that arrays will be placed on or in proximity to wrecks due to potential turbine damage or boat navigation risk. Therefore costs associated with the impacts of offshore wind are assessed as negligible. Access restrictions to surfing and wind surfing sites may occur during the construction phase and careful siting of these routes should be undertaken to avoid changes in the shoreline and to the location of the arrays to prevent significant changes to the local wave climate. However, the impact of these restrictions or changes in wave quality due to cables is assessed as negligible. While recreational angling is an important activity within the North West Region, no significant cost impacts have been identified. It is recognised that there is some uncertainty surrounding the potential environmental impacts of offshore renewables development on fish populations, but it is considered that sufficient management mechanisms are in place to limit such impacts and therefore that no significant socio-economic impacts to recreational angling interests should occur. Therefore the cost to water sports activities associated with offshore wind developments within the Draft Plan Option areas is assessed as negligible.

Social Impacts

Each of the above effects could have social impacts. Table 30 identifies the areas of social impact that could be affected, with main impacts likely to be on employment (as a result of the impact of increased costs or reductions in turnover) and the environment (mainly due to increased emissions or changes in environmental quality). In most cases, it has not been possible to quantify the impacts, although employment impacts for fisheries are estimated (based on use of multipliers, which are uncertain, see also Section 2.5). Other impacts, such as on access to services, health, and culture and heritage could largely be mitigated, although as shown in Table 30, there may be some minimal impacts on recreational boating.

Those impacts identified as being slightly significant or greater are carried forwards for assessment in the distributional analysis. Five different aspects are assessed:

• location;
• age;
• gender;
• income; and
• social group (covering minorities and special interest groups).

Tables 31 and 32 summarise the results of the distributional analysis, showing where impacts are likely to be greater for a particular social group, equal, or lower than the overall impact. For example, impacts on recreational boating may be more significant on settlements with a harbour or marina, or on boat users. For most groups, though, the impacts are at worst minimal and in many cases are unlikely to be noticeable.

Table 30. Identification of the social impacts and their significance

Offshore Wind (North West)
Sector	Direct effects	Area of social impact affected	Costs ( PV £ million or GVA for fisheries)	Mitigation	Significance of social impact
					Access	Experience
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	Employment (reduced turnover) Culture and heritage (impact on traditions) Health (increased risks due to moving to lesser known areas)	Low: £0.11 Central: £0.27 High: £0.58		xx Impacts on jobs not quantified as regional effects do not exceed 5% threshold on low and central High: 1.4 to 1.5jobs affected	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	Employment (increased costs) Environment (increased emissions) Health (increased navigation routes)	Impacts not quantified	Impacts should be minimised through careful location of devices, but some risks may remain especially in high scenario	x	Potentially 0
	Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure	Employment (increased costs to replace gear) Environment (impacts of fouled gear)	Impacts not quantified	Expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	Employment (reduced turnover) Culture and heritage (loss of connection of places with sea and history of area)	Impacts not quantified		x	0
Energy generation	Competition for transmission capacity	Employment (reduced opportunity for future development) Environment (reduced opportunity for use of renewable energy)	Impacts not quantified	Potential to collaborate rather than compete for grid connection, minimising impacts	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	Access to recreational opportunities	Impacts not quantified	Passage planning and awareness, plus the update and circulation of up to date navigational information via charting publications	x	x
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	Access to services (increased costs passed onto users, especially ferries) Environment (increased emissions)	Low: none Central: £1.45 High: £2.90	Arrays should seek to be sited to avoid hindering ferry services Additional emissions unlikely to be significant in terms of climate change, and will be offshore so should not affect air quality	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
Water sports	Spatial overlap between cable routes and water sports activity (surfing and windsurfing, and scuba diving)	Health (reduction in recreational opportunities) Employment (impacts on services if boat owners choose to relocate their water sports activities to elsewhere)	Impacts not quantified	Unlikely that arrays will be placed close to dive sites, such that impacts should be minimised. Care needed when siting arrays to minimise impacts on wave climate and avoid changes in the coastline. The only impacts may be during construction and are likely to be minimal over that period	Potentially 0	Potentially 0

Notes: The likely areas of social impact are based on the key areas identified by the GES/ GSR Social Impacts Taskforce

Definition of ratings: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected x x x : significant negative effect

Table 31. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xx	xx Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	x	x Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	0	x	0	x Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xx	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	x Pontoon facilities, e.g. at Kinlochbervie could be affected if number of boaters reduces (but others could benefit)	0	x	x	x	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected

Table 32. Distributional analysis (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	x	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Pelagic sector x Potters, demersal trawls	xx Vessels >15m (herring) x Vessels <15m
	Obstruction of navigation routes	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	x	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Pelagic sector x Potters, demersal trawls	xx Vessels >15m (herring) x Vessels <15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	x	x	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	x	xx May be more likely to have smaller boats	x	x	xx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to reduce activity if navigation risks increase

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected

6.2 Wave

6.2.1 Quantification of Potentially Significant Impacts

Table 32 presents quantified estimates impacts (Present Value ( PV) costs and GVA (fisheries)) for activities potentially affected by wave development within Draft Plan Option areas WNW1 and WW4. Quantified cost estimates have been developed for commercial fisheries only. Comments are also provided on activities for which quantified cost estimates could not be provided. No significant benefits have been identified for activities. The impacts of each activity highlighted are briefly described below and further the detail can be found in Appendix C.

Table 33. Present value ( PV) costs (and GVA for fisheries) in £millions for Wave Energy in the North West Region (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0.03	0.09	0.18
Total costs		0.03	0.09	0.18

Commercial Fisheries

For WNW1 Draft Plan Option area, the area that would be occupied by arrays was calculated as being 0.17%, 0.47% and 0.95% for the low, central and high scenarios respectively. The total impact on commercial fisheries from wave energy development in the North-West Region was £0.03m GVA for the low scenario, rising to £0.18m GVA for the high scenario (over the whole assessment period, discounted). These impacts mainly accrue to the over-15m pelagic trawl sector, targeting mackerel.

6.2.2 Other Costs not Quantified

Commercial Fisheries

Wave area WNW1 overlaps with the navigation routes heading east from the northern coast of the Isle of Lewis, but impacts on navigation routes are expected to be avoidable through location of devices, given that less than 1% of the area would be occupied with wave devices even under the high scenario. No significant interactions with cables were identified. It is expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry, and a Memorandum of Understanding is being developed between the fishing industry and Subsea Cables UK.

Energy Generation

Energy generation from differing forms of technology will also lead to competition for transmission capacity which would affect all Draft Plan Option areas.

Military Interests

There is a potential overlap between all Draft Plan Option areas and with all cable routes and military practice and exercise areas. In addition all Draft Plan Option areas have the potential to interfere with underwater communications. The Defence Infrastructure Organisation ( DIO) stated that it was not possible to quantify the economic cost impact that would arise from the loss of military testing facilities, should activity be displaced through wind, wave or tidal arrays. At the time of writing no further information had been received regarding any specific areas of concern in relation to interference with radar or underwater communications.

Ports and Harbours

The main identified impact to ports and harbours associated with wave developments within the Draft Plan Option areas relates to increases in marine risk, specifically the temporary collision risk while cable laying or maintenance is being carried out. However the assessment considers that it would be possible to avoid conflict with port access routes and channels through careful planning of cable laying and maintenance activities.

Recreational Boating

The potential impact of future wave energy development within the Draft Plan Option area on investment in recreational boating supply chains has been assessed qualitatively. It is recognised that development in areas which are already challenging to navigate may deter sailors and reduce expenditure in the Region. The risk can be mitigated to some extent through passage planning and awareness, plus the update and circulation of up to date navigational information via charting publications.

Water sports

Surfing and windsurfing occur within the area of WNW1 where the impacts to seascape and setting could reduce the number of surfs using the area however as the wave devices would only be up to a maximum of 10m above sea level these structures are expected to cause a minimal disruption to this activity.

Sea kayaking is undertaken in all wave Draft Plan Option areas while scuba diving is known to take place at WNW1, however this is not considered to be in the top ten sites for sea kayaking and as sea kayaks are highly manoeuvrable, wave devices are unlikely to physically displace this activity. Based on these factors it is unlikely that sea kayakers will be displaced due to overlap with a Draft Plan Option area and so impacts are assessed as negligible. Scuba diving also occurs within WNW1 and is mainly associated with areas of interest and in particular wrecks and where these are known it is highly unlikely that arrays will be placed on or in proximity to wrecks due to potential turbine damage or boat navigation risk. Therefore costs associated with the impacts of offshore wind are assessed as negligible.

Windsurfing and surfing and scuba diving are also undertaken within the potential cable route areas between the Draft Plan Option areas and landfall. Most of the diving activities are associated with areas of interest and in particular wrecks and where these are known it is highly unlikely that arrays will be placed on or in proximity to wrecks due to potential turbine damage or boat navigation risk. Therefore costs associated with the impacts of wave development in the Draft Plan Option areas are assessed as negligible. Access restrictions to surfing and wind surfing sites may occur during the construction phase and careful siting of these routes is required to avoid changes in the shoreline and to the location of the arrays to prevent significant changes to the local wave climate. However the impact of these restrictions or changes in wave quality due to cables is assessed as negligible. While recreational angling is an important activity within the North West Region, no significant cost impacts have been identified. It is recognised that there is some uncertainty surrounding the potential environmental impacts of offshore renewables development on fish populations, but it is considered that sufficient management mechanisms are in place to limit such impacts and therefore that no significant socio-economic impacts to recreational angling interests should occur. Therefore the cost to water sports activities associated with wave developments within the Draft Plan Option areas is assessed as negligible.

Social Impacts

Each of the above effects could have social impacts. Table 34 identifies the areas of social impact that could be affected, with main impacts likely to be on employment (as a result of the impact of increased costs or reductions in turnover). In most cases, it has not been possible to quantify the impacts, although employment impacts for fisheries are estimated (based on use of multipliers, which are uncertain, see also Section 2.5). Other impacts such as on health could largely be mitigated, such that there are unlikely to be any noticeable impacts. The only exception may be during construction for surfers and windsurfers, but this would be minimal and only for a short-time.

Those impacts identified as being slightly significant or greater are carried forwards for assessment in the distributional analysis. Five different aspects are assessed:

• location;
• age;
• gender;
• income; and
• social group (covering minorities and special interest groups).

Tables 35 and 36 summarise the results of the distributional analysis, showing where impacts are likely to be greater for a particular social group, equal, or lower than the overall impact. The only noticeable impacts are likely to be on commercial fisheries.

Table 34. Identification of the social impacts and their significance

Wave (North West)
Sector	Direct effects	Area of social impact affected	Costs ( PV £ million or GVA for fisheries)	Mitigation	Significance of social impact
					Access	Experience
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	Employment (reduced turnover) Culture and heritage (impact on traditions) Health (increased risks due to moving to lesser known areas)	Low: £0.03 Central: £0.09 High: £0.18		xx Impacts on jobs not quantified as regional effects do not exceed 5% threshold
	Obstruction of navigation routes	Employment (increased costs) Environment (increased emissions)		Impacts should be minimised through careful location of devices	Potentially 0
	Fouling of fishing gear on cables or seabed infrastructure	Employment (increased costs to replace gear) Environment (impacts of fouled gear)		Expected that cables would be laid in consultation with the fishing industry	Potentially 0
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	Employment (reduced turnover) Culture and heritage (loss of connection of places with sea and history of area)	Impacts not quantified		x
Energy generation	Competition for space and transmission capacity	Employment (reduced opportunity for future development) Environment (reduced opportunity for use of renewable energy)	Impacts not quantified	Potential to collaborate rather than compete for grid connection, minimising impacts	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	Access to recreational opportunities	Impacts not quantified	Passage planning and awareness, plus the update and circulation of up to date navigational information via charting publications	x	x
Shipping	Obstruction of transiting vessel/ferry routes; increased steaming distances/time	Access to services (increased costs passed onto users, especially ferries) Environment (increased emissions)	Impacts not quantified	Arrays should seek to be sited to avoid hindering ferry services Additional emissions unlikely to be significant in terms of climate change, and will be offshore so should not affect air quality	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity	Health (reduction in recreational opportunities) Employment (impacts on services if boat owners choose to relocate their water sports activities to elsewhere)	Impacts not quantified	Unlikely that arrays will be placed close to dive sites, such that impacts should be minimised	Potentially 0	Potentially 0
	Spatial overlap between cable routes and water sports activity	Health (reduction in recreational opportunities) Employment (impacts on services if boat owners choose to relocate their water sports activities to elsewhere)	Impacts not quantified	Unlikely that arrays will be placed close to dive sites, such that impacts should be minimised. Care needed when siting arrays to minimise impacts on wave climate and avoid changes in the coastline. The only impacts may be during construction and are likely to be minimal over that period	Potentially 0	Potentially 0

Notes: The likely areas of social impact are based on the key areas identified by the GES/ GSR Social Impacts Taskforce

Definition of ratings: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected x x x : significant negative effect

Table 35. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pension able age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xx	xx Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xx	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	x Pontoon facilities, e.g. at Kinlochbervie could be affected if number of boaters reduces (but others could benefit)	0	x	x	x	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected

Table 36. Distributional analysis (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Loss of traditional fishing grounds	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	xx	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Pelagic sector x Potters, demersal trawls	xx Vessels >15m mackerel) x Vessels <15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	x	x	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	x	xx May be more likely to have smaller boats	x	x	xx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to reduce activity if navigation risks increase

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect; x x : possible negative effects; x: minimal negative effect, if any; 0: no noticeable effect expected