Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters: Socio - Economic Assesment

10. Combined Assessment

10.1 Introduction

This section provides an assessment of the combined impacts of potential offshore wind, wave and tidal development within Draft Plan Option areas both at regional and national level.

The starting point for each assessment has been to sum the estimated impacts for offshore wind, wave and tidal development (as appropriate) and then to discuss the extent to which combined impacts may be more or less than the summed estimates.

10.2 Regional Assessments

10.2.1 South West

Table 56 presents summed discounted costs for offshore wind, wave and tidal Draft Plan Option areas in South West Region for those activities for which quantified cost estimates have been made. Unquantified impacts were also identified for a number of activities including commercial fisheries, energy generation, military interests, water sports and for social impacts.

Table 56. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies within South West Region (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	0.06	0.09	0.19
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0.05	0.06	0.16
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	4.87	5.08	7.05
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	-	0.02	0.33
Total PV Costs		4.92	5.16	7.54
Total GVA Impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		0.06	0.09	0.19

Estimation of potentially significant impacts

The following activities are relevant to more than one Draft Plan Option area and have the potential to experience significant combined impacts within the South West SORER.

Commercial Fisheries

The combined impact of potential wind and tidal development on fish landings is considered to be additive, given the relatively low value of the summed impact. Obstruction to navigation routes for commercial fishing vessels in South West SORER is assessed as relatively minor. Therefore the combined impact is considered to be additive.

Energy Generation

There is some potential for competition between offshore wind and tidal developments for grid connection. However, it is not possible to quantify the cost impact of this interaction. It is possible that grid capacity will expand in response to offshore energy development, thus avoiding significant competition for connectivity and offshore energy developers may co-operate in seeking to secure adequate grid connection.

Recreational Boating

The combined impact of potential wind and tidal development ( TSW1 and OWSW1) is considered to be additive, given the value of the summed impact. The combined developments, assuming a high scenario and the interaction with medium RYA cruising routes assessed within this study provide a marginal increase in marine risk for recreational vessels. There is, however, limited commercial vessel usage of this sea area, providing adequate sea room for recreational craft to make safe passage around the combined developments.

Shipping

Most shipping activity within the Region is through traffic transiting from the Isle of Man and English ports along the Cumbrian Coast, Morecambe Bay and Liverpool. The combined assessment has therefore been made at national level.

Tourism

There is no anticipated impact on tourism activity from tidal development. Therefore the combined impact of offshore wind and tidal development is the same as for offshore wind development alone.

Social

Tables 57 and 58 show that most of the impacts are still identified as being possibly negative at worst, suggesting they would not be noticeable for most groups. There are some exceptions, notably commercial fisheries due to loss of traditional fishing grounds and the additional costs incurred in finding and or moving to new fishing grounds. These impacts may be significant for dredgers and potters. Impacts may also be seen on recreational boat users due to increased difficulty with navigation. This could have knock-on implications for local employment in marinas and boat maintenance businesses if boat owners choose to relocate to other areas. However, these impacts would be very localised. A combination of recreational boating and tourism effects could increase the significance of the impacts for boat-based businesses (for example, if tourists chose to go elsewhere due to seascape changes reducing demand for boat trips). The costs are not expected to be large, though, so the impacts on employment and the local economy of the South West region are likely to be negligible.

Table 57. Combined distributional analysis (location, age and gender) South West

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xx	xx Ayr, Campbeltown	x	x	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Ayr, Cambeltown	x	x	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0	xx	xx	x	xx	xx	xx	xx
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	xx	xxx Wigtown, Kirkcudbright, Whitehaven could be particularly affected	x	xx	xx	xx	xx
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, ,x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under both wind and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

Table 58. Distributional analysis (income and social groups) South West

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	xx	xx	xx	0 Not relevant in SW	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xxx Dredgers and potters	xxx Vessels >10m length x Vessels <10m in length
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	0	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0 Unlikely to own boat	xx	xx	0 Not relevant in SW	xx	xx	xxx Boat users	No other specific group identified
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	xx Where employed in this area	xx	xx	0 Not relevant in SW	xx	xx Could affect ability to support trips for disabled/ sick	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xxx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely reduce activity if navigation risks increase
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	No other specific group identified
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	xx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under both wind and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

10.2.2 West

Table 59 presents summed discounted costs for offshore wind, wave and tidal Draft Plan Option areas in West Region for those activities for which quantified cost estimates have been made.

Table 59. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies within West Region (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	0.16	0.37	0.80
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	3.80	9.77
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	-	0.01	0.05
Total PV Costs		-	3.81	9.82
Total GVA Impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		0.16	0.37	0.80

Estimation of potentially significant impacts

The following activities are relevant to more than one Draft Plan Option area and have the potential to experience significant combined impacts within the West SORER.

Commercial Fisheries

The combined impact of potential offshore wind, wave and tidal development on fish landings is considered to be additive, given the relatively low value of the summed impact. Obstruction to navigation routes for commercial fishing vessels in West SORER may be significant for some Draft Plan Option areas. Generally these Draft Plan Option areas are well separated and it is therefore unlikely that an individual fishing vessel would be affected by multiple Areas, although offshore wind Area OWW3 and wave Area WW4 overlap significantly and could give rise to combined impacts in the area to the west of Mingulay.

Energy Generation

There is some potential for competition for space and grid connection between offshore wind and wave developments, particularly offshore wind Areas OWW1, OWW2 and OWW3 which overlap with wave Areas WW1, WW3 and WW4. However, it is not possible to quantify the cost impact of this interaction. It is possible that grid capacity will expand in response to offshore energy development, thus avoiding significant competition for connectivity and offshore energy developers may co-operate in seeking to secure adequate grid connection.

Shipping

Most shipping activity within the Region is through traffic. A wider combined assessment has therefore been made at national level.

Tourism

There is no anticipated impact on tourism activity from wave or tidal development. Therefore the combined impact of offshore wind, wave and tidal development is the same as for offshore wind development alone.

Social

Tables 60 and 61 show that most of the impacts for the West region are still identified as being possibly negative at worst, suggesting they would not be noticeable for most groups. There are some exceptions, notably commercial fisheries due to loss of traditional fishing grounds and the additional costs incurred in finding/moving to new fishing grounds. These impacts may be significant for potters and Nephrops trawlers. Crofters could also be disproportionately affected if they are involved in these type of fishing activities to supplement their incomes. There may also be issues with navigation routes, especially in TW2.

Of the other groups, recreational boat users and could reduce their activities or potentially relocate their activities if navigation becomes more difficult. This may be more significant for people with smaller boats that have fewer navigational aids, with the potential for knock-on implications for income to marinas and boat maintenance businesses. However, these impacts would be very localised. A combination of recreational boating and tourism effects could increase the significance of the impacts for boat-based businesses (for example, if tourists chose to go elsewhere due to seascape changes reducing demand for boat trips). The costs are not expected to be large, though, so the impacts on employment and the local economy of the West region are likely to be negligible.

Table 60. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender) West

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xxx More significant for OWW1	xxx Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xxx	x	xxx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	xxx More significant for OWW1 and OWW3	xxx Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xxx	x	xxx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xx	xx	xx Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xx	x	xx	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	xx	xx Oban, Dunstaffnage marinas could be affected if number of boaters reduces (but others could benefit)	0	xx	xx	xx	xx
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	0	xx	No specific settlements affected	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts sco red x under both wind and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

Table 61. Distributional analysis (income and social groups) West

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	xxx	xxx	xx	xxx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xxx Potters	xxx Nephrops trawlers
	Obstruction of navigation routes	xxx	xxx	xx	xxx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xxx Potters	xxx Nephrops trawlers
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xx	xx	xx	xx	0	0	xx	xx
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	xx Where employed in this area	xx	xx	xx Maybe more likely to have smaller boats	xx	xx Could affect ability to support trips for disabled/ sick	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xxx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to look for alternative sailing sites if navigation risks increase
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	x	x	x	x	x	x	x	No other specific group identified
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xxx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under both wind and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

10.2.3 North West

Table 62 presents summed discounted costs for offshore wind and wave Draft Plan Option areas in the North West SORER for those activities for which quantified cost estimates have been made.

Table 62. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies within North West Region (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	0.14	0.36	0.76
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	1.45	2.90
Total PV Costs		-	1.45	2.90
Total GVA Impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		0.14	0.36	0.76

Estimation of potentially significant impacts

The following activities are relevant to more than one Draft Plan Option area and have the potential to experience significant combined impacts within the North West SORER.

Commercial Fisheries

The combined impact of potential offshore wind and wave development on fish landings is considered to be additive, given the relatively low value of the summed impact. Obstruction to navigation routes for commercial fishing vessels in North West SORER may occur in relation to offshore wind Area OWNW1, but interaction with the two wave Areas is expected to be small. Given that the Draft Plan Option areas are well separated, it is therefore unlikely that individual fishing vessel would be affected by multiple Areas.

Energy Generation

There is some potential for competition for grid connection between offshore wind Area NW1 and wave Areas WNW1, WW4. However, it is not possible to quantify the cost impact of this interaction. It is possible that grid capacity will expand in response to offshore energy development, thus avoiding significant competition for connectivity and offshore energy developers may co-operate in seeking to secure adequate grid connection.

Shipping

Most shipping activity within the Region is through traffic. The combined assessment has therefore been made at national level.

Social Impacts

Tables 63 and 64 show that most of the impacts for the North West region are associated with commercial fishing, particularly due to loss of traditional fishing grounds and the additional costs incurred in finding/moving to new fishing grounds or steaming around arrays. These impacts may be significant for the pelagic sector, however this region has the largest impact on fisheries therefore the combined impact on fisheries therefore may be greater. There may also be impacts for recreational boaters, who could reduce or potentially relocate their activities if navigation becomes more difficult. This may be more significant for people with smaller boats that have fewer navigational aids, with the potential for knock-on implications for income to marinas and boat maintenance businesses.

Table 63. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender) North West

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xxx	xxx Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xxx	x	xxx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	x	x Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	0	x	0	x Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	xx Kinlochbervie, Lochinver, Ullapool	x	xx	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	xx Pontoon facilities, e.g. at Kinlochbervie could be affected if number of boaters reduces (but others could benefit	0	x	x	x	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under both wind and wave are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or wave, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or wave, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

Table 64. Distributional analysis (income and social groups) North West

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Pelagic sector x Potters, demersal trawls	xx Vessels >15m (herring) x Vessels <15m
	Obstruction of navigation routes	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	x Pelagic sector 0 Potters, demersal trawls	x Vessels >15m (herring) 0 Vessels <15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	x	0	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	xx May be more likely to have smaller boats	0 Unlikely to be employed in this area	x	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	No other specific group identified

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under both wind and wave are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind or wave, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind or wave, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

10.2.4 North

Table 64 presents summed discounted costs for offshore wind, wave and tidal Draft Plan Option areas in the North SORER for those activities for which quantified cost estimates have been made.

Table 65. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies within North Region (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	0.83	2.01	4.32
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	7.12	23.55
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	-	0.22	0.59
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	-	-	0.92
Total PV Costs		-	7.34	25.06
Total GVA impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		0.83	2.01	4.32

Estimation of potentially significant impacts

The following activities are relevant to more than one Draft Plan Option area and have the potential to experience significant combined impacts within the North SORER.

Commercial Fisheries

The combined impact of potential offshore wind, wave and tidal development on fish landings is considered to be additive, given the relatively low value of the summed impact. Obstruction to navigation routes for commercial fishing vessels in North SORER may be significant for some Draft Plan Option areas. Offshore wind Area OWN1 and wave Area WN2 both overlap with important steaming routes to the north-west of Orkney. More generally, the concentrations of Areas for offshore wind, wave and tidal energy development around Orkney and Shetland create the potential for combined impacts for fishing vessels working in these areas.

Energy Generation

There is a significant overlap between offshore wind Area OWN1 and wave Area WN2 which could result in competition for space. There may also be competition for grid connection between offshore wind, wave and tidal developments, particularly around Orkney and Shetland. However, it is not possible to quantify the cost impact of this interaction. It is possible that grid capacity will expand in response to offshore energy development, thus avoiding significant competition for connectivity and offshore energy developers may co-operate in seeking to secure adequate grid connection.

Shipping

Most shipping activity within the Region is through traffic along the Pentland Firth, or further offshore passing through the Fair Isle Channel or further north around the top of the Shetland Islands. The combined assessment has therefore been made at national level. The Lerwick to Hanstholm (Denmark) ferry could be affected by OWN2, but there are no other Draft Plan Option areas or existing lease areas giving rise to a combined impact on this route.

Tourism

There is no anticipated impact on tourism activity from wave or tidal development. Therefore the combined impact of offshore wind and tidal development is the same as for offshore wind development alone.

Water Sports - Sea Angling

The combined impact of potential offshore wind, wave and tidal development is considered to be additive, given the relatively low value of the summed impact.

Social Impacts

Tables 66 and 67 show that almost all of the potentially significant cumulative impacts for the North region are associated with commercial fishing, particularly due to loss of traditional fishing grounds and the additional costs incurred in finding/moving to new fishing grounds or steaming around arrays, but inshore fisheries may also suffer significant impacts. These impacts may be most significant for the pelagic and demersal sectors. Crofters could be disproportionately affected if they are involved in these types of fishing activities to supplement their incomes.

Impacts on other groups are mostly identified as being possibly negative at worst, suggesting they would not be noticeable. The main exceptions are impacts on sea anglers and recreational boaters, who could reduce or potentially relocate their activities if navigation becomes more difficult. This may be more significant for people with smaller boats that have fewer navigational aids, with the potential for knock-on implications for income to marinas and boat maintenance businesses. . This could have knock-on implications for local employment in marinas and boat maintenance businesses. However, these impacts would be very localised. A combination of effects on recreational boating, sea angling and tourism could increase the significance of the impacts for boat-based businesses (for example, if tourists and sea anglers chose to go elsewhere reducing demand for boat trips). The costs are not expected to be large, though, so the impacts on employment and the local economy of the North region are likely to be negligible. Impacts on sea angling may be significant for the 10% most deprived proportion of the population (although other groups within the population may be equally affected). However, as with the other impacts, these effects are likely to be localised.

Table 66. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender) North

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Carbon capture and storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	0	xx Could have impact on rural economy if investment goes elsewhere	0 Unlikely to affect specific locations	0	xx Could have impact on employment opportunities if investment goes elsewhere	0	xx	xx
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xxx	xxx Orkney, Scrabster, Shetland	x	xxx	x	xxx Fishermen more likely to be male	xx
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	x	xx Orkney, Scrabster, Shetland	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xx	xxx	xxx Orkney, Scrabster, Shetland	x	xxx	x	xx	xxx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	xx	xxx Pierowall could be affected most, Bressay and Lerwick less so (xx)	0	xx	xx	xx	xx
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xxx May be more likely to be involved in sea angling	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: Any impacts scored x under all of wind, wave and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind, wave or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind, wave or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

Table 67. Distributional analysis (income and social groups) North

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Carbon capture and storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	xxx economic impacts could affect this group more than others	xx	xx	xx Unlikely to be employed in this industry (but may be for extra income)	xx	0 Unlikely to be affected, economic impacts likely to be small	0 None likely to be affected	xxx Local businesses that might otherwise have been involved
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xxx Pelagic, demersal sector xx Shellfish	xxx Vessels >15m xxx Vessels <15m
	Obstruction of navigation routes	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Pelagic, demersal sector x Shellfish	xx Vessels >15m xx Vessels <15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xxx	xxx	x	x	0	0	xx	x
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0 Unlikely to own boat	x	x	x	x	x	xx Boat users	No other specific group identified
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	xx Where employed in this area	xx	xx	xxx May be more likely to have smaller boats	xx	xxx Could affect ability to support trips for disabled/ sick	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xxx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to look for alternative sailing sites if navigation risks increase
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	x	x	x	X	x	x	x	No other specific group identified
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xx Level of sea angling activity may be lower for sick	xxx Sea anglers will be most affected	No other specific group identified
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sports activity (sea kayaking)	x	x	x	x	x	x	xx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected,

Rules: Any impacts scored x under all of wind, wave and tidal are now scored xx, Any impacts scored xx under wind, wave or tidal, plus x under other technology are now scored xxx, Any impacts scored xxx under wind, wave or tidal, plus x or xx under other technology are now scored xxx+ (to indicate cumulative impacts may be greater)

10.2.5 North East

No wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas have been identified in the North East Region. The combined costs are therefore the same as those for offshore wind alone (Table 67).

Table 68. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies within North East Region (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Carbon Capture and Storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	1.85	4.32	9.27
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	0.18	0.43	0.92
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	-	0.66	0.81
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	48.57	98.61
Total PV Costs		1.85	53.55	108.69
Total GVA Impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		0.18	0.43	0.92

Estimation of potentially significant impacts

The following activities are relevant to more than one Draft Plan Option area and have the potential to experience significant combined impacts within the North East SORER.

Carbon Capture & Storage

There are no wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas in North East Region. The combined impacts are therefore the same as those for offshore wind alone.

Commercial Fisheries

No wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas are identified in the North East Region. The combined impacts on fish landings are therefore the same as those for offshore wind alone. Obstruction to navigation routes for commercial fishing vessels in North East SORER may occur in relation to OWNE2 for Fraserburgh port, and to a lesser extent in relation to OWNE1 for Peterhead and Aberdeen ports. Therefore the combined impact is likely to be additive.

Energy Generation

There may be some competition for grid connection between the two offshore wind Areas. However, it is not possible to quantify the cost impact of this interaction. It is possible that grid capacity will expand in response to offshore energy development, thus avoiding significant competition for connectivity and offshore energy developers may co-operate in seeking to secure adequate grid connection.

Recreational Boating

There are no wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas in North East Region. The combined impacts are therefore the same as those for offshore wind alone.

Shipping

Most shipping activity within the Region is through traffic, although there are a number of ferry routes to the islands. The Peterhead-Shetland ferry route passes through offshore wind Draft Plan Option area NE2 and the Peterhead-Orkney route also passes through the edge of this Draft Plan Option area. The methodology used within this study has identified that the high development scenario can be accommodated within the Draft Plan Option area without impinging on the ferry routing. However, to recognise the proximity of development sites and existing ferry services, the effect of reduced sea area availability for navigation provides an increase in marine risk through the potential for ship encounters (a high density of traffic is expected around the development). As no wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas occur in North East Region, the combined impacts are therefore the same as those for offshore wind alone.

Social Impacts

As there are no search areas for wave or tidal, the impacts are the same as for wind. These are mainly associated with commercial fishing and recreational boating, with some possible, but limited impacts, associated with carbon capture and storage. Impacts on commercial fisheries may be most noticeable for over 15m vessels, especially dredgers, demersal and Nephrops trawlers and potters. At for dredgers and potters, especially those <10m in length or >15m on length. At the regional level, the impacts will be negligible (see Tables 69 and 70).

Table 69. Distributional analysis (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Carbon capture and storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	0	x Could have impact on rural economy if investment goes elsewhere	0 Unlikely to affect specific locations	0	x Could have impact on employment opportunities if investment goes elsewhere	0	x	x
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xx	xx Aberdeen, Buckie, Fraserburgh, Peterhead	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	xx	xxx OWNE2 (Fraserburgh and Peterhead)	x	xxx	x	xxx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	xx	xx Aberdeen, Buckie, Fraserburgh, Peterhead	x	xx	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	xx Peterhead, Banff and Whitehills marinas could be affected	0	x	x	x	x
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	x

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: No cumulative effects as there are no wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas. Impacts are the same as for wind

Table 70. Distributional analysis (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Carbon capture and storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	xx economic impacts could affect this group more than others	x	x	0 Not relevant in NE	x	0 Unlikely to be affected, economic impacts likely to be small	0 None likely to be affected	xx Local businesses that might otherwise have been involved
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	xx	xx	xx	0 Not relevant in NE	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Dredgers, potters x Demersal, pelagic sectors, Nephrops	xx Vessels >15m xx Vessels <10m x Vessels <15m
	Obstruction of navigation routes	xxx	xxx	xxx	0 Not relevant in NE	0	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xxx Dredgers, potters xxx Demersal, pelagic sectors, Nephrops	xxx Vessels >15m xxx Vessels <10m xxx Vessels <15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xx	xx	x	0 Not relevant in NE	0	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0 Unlikely to own boat	x	x	0 Not relevant in NE	x	x	xx Boat users	No other specific group identified
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in NE	x	x	xx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. May be more likely to look for alternative sailing sites if navigation risks increase
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	x Level of sea angling activity may be lower for sick	xxx Sea anglers will be most affected	No other specific group identified

Impacts: x x x : significant negative effect, x x : possible negative effects, x: minimal negative effect, if any, 0: no noticeable effect expected

Rules: No cumulative effects as there are no wave or tidal Draft Plan Option areas. Impacts are the same as for wind

10.3 National Assessment

Table 71 presents summed discounted costs for wind, wave and tidal Draft Plan Option areas in all SORERs for those activities for which quantified cost estimates have been made.

Table 71. Discounted PV Costs ( GVA for fisheries) in £millions for all technologies (numbers rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Carbon Capture and Storage	Costs of additional cable crossings	1.85	4.32	9.27
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of GVA associated with possible reduction in fish landings	1.37	3.26	6.99
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0.05	0.72	0.97
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	4.87	66.02	141.87
Tourism	Reduction in expenditure	-	0.26	1.00
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	-	-	0.92
Total PV Costs		6.77	71.32	154.03
Total GVA Impacts (Commercial Fisheries)		1.37	3.26	6.99

While there are uncertainties surrounding the cost estimates for tourism and sea angling and not all potential impacts to these sectors have been quantified, the scale of impacts identified in this study does not suggest that there will be significant regional or national impacts associated with combined offshore wind, wave or tidal development within the Draft Plan Option areas.

At a national level, the combined impact of the commercial fisheries sector in terms of impacts to GVA as a result of potential reductions in landings is estimated to be less than 1% of total GVA and thus insignificant in a national context. At a regional scale, it is estimated that the greatest potential impacts will occur in North Region. No significant impacts for the fish processing sector have been identified either regionally or nationally, given the relatively small scale of potential impact to fish landings. Impacts may also occur to the commercial fisheries sector as a result of disruption to steaming routes to fishing grounds as a result of the location of offshore renewables arrays but it has not been possible to quantify these impacts. It is possible that export cable routes may also affect fishing opportunities in some locations, but it has not been possible to quantify these impacts.

Cost impacts to shipping interests are potentially more significant both in absolute terms (maximum annual cost impact of around £13.0m) and relative terms, although no specific figure is available for the value of shipping to the Scottish economy. For the tidal and wave sites, spatial planning can largely avoid significant impacts on commercial shipping and ferry routes, however reduced sea area availability for navigation will increase the density of traffic in other areas. This will have an increase in the potential encounter rate, and therefore an increase in marine risk. Changes in shipping patterns around development sites, specifically larger wind farm sites, will also affect greenhouse gas ( GHG) emission values for different sea areas. This will depend on the route of the deviation, however it is expected that GHG emission values will be modified by affected routes. It is unlikely that routeing around the north of the Shetland Islands will be affected by development sites, likewise, routeing through the Fair Isle channel is unlikely to be affected. However, vessels transiting along the North East Scottish Coast will be affected by wind farm sites ( i.e., OWNE1, OWNE2). Routeing through the Pentland Firth is unlikely to be affected, however the wind farm Draft Plan Option area off Cape Wrath (Sutherland Coast) may modify routeing for vessels bound for the deep water IMO routing land to the West of the Outer Hebrides, or those vessel transiting through the Minch. The Minch and Outer Hebrides vessel routes combine in an area with intense Commercial Traffic use to the West of Tiree, further South off the Isle of Islay, which has potential for multiple impacts on through the combined effect of development sites in this area. Careful site specific selection will be require to position development sites so that they do not interact with establish shipping routes provide access to vessels entering, or leaving the Irish Sea; or transiting to smaller ports within the Inner Isles.

The impact of renewable development sites on recreational boating is recognised as a deterrent ( i.e., the prospect of increased danger which affects planned passages) and partly economic where the passage is attempted, but a deviation is encountered to avoid development areas. The effect of decisions not to navigate in these areas will be recognised in income from marina and leisure support facilities, and a long term disincentive for investment. The combined impacts of development within the Draft Plan Option Areas may include:

• Vessels on passage from the Forth to the Caledonian Canal and the west, or to the Northern Isles may be deterred by the cumulative effect of the three wind farms off the Forth, the proposed scheme in Aberdeen Bay and OWNE1 and OWNE2 requiring the increased level of alertness and crewing levels which may dissuade recreational vessels from using this area;
• Similarly, the number and intensity of development sites may act as a deterrent for recreational craft wanting to access the Inner and Outer Hebrides from cruising bases such as the Clyde. The location of development sites around headlands provides added anxiety and complexity for recreational navigation; and
• The numerous development sites around the Orkney Islands may also lead to potential reductions in visiting vessels where it is considered more difficult and challenging to navigate inshore where renewable development sites are located.

A number of potential impacts have been identified for competing offshore renewables technologies, both in relation to competition for space and cable land falls. The combined impact of these interactions is uncertain. It is possible that more commercially viable technologies such as offshore wind could out-compete wave and tidal developments and reduce opportunities for these technologies, although offshore renewables developers will be encouraged to co-operate on issues such as cable landfall.

Impacts to CCS and Dredge Material Disposal sites only occur in one SORER and national impacts will therefore be no greater than the regional impacts to these activities.

The social impacts are not expected to be noticeable at the national level. The potential impacts on employment, access to services, health, culture and heritage and the environment could be locally noticeable, with the largest impacts likely to be associated with commercial fisheries, and on marinas if boat users choose to visit other areas of the coast or move their boats to marinas away from the search areas. In most cases, these impacts are also expected to be small and very localised and relate mainly to the knock-on effects of changes to jobs (either number or quality of employment). There are no significant impacts expected in terms of access to services, crime or education. Impacts on culture and heritage, environment and health are limited to loss of traditional fishing grounds, emissions to the environment (most of which will be offshore) and worry associated with increased costs or increased navigation risks.