Draft Sectoral Marine Plans for Offshore Renewable Energy in Scottish Waters - Sustainability Appraisal

5 Sustainability Appraisal: The Plan for Tidal Energy

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 The following section provides a summary of the results of the technical assessments for the draft tidal plan. The SEA and HRA provide technical detail on the potential for effects environment and human health. The socio-economic assessment provides the potential social and economic consequences of effects on existing marine activities. Supporting technical assessment documents provide the detail of how conclusions have been made. The following sections provide a high level summary of these.

5.2 Environment

5.2.1 There are a range of potential interactions with the environment from the installation of tidal devices in the marine environment. However, there is a degree of uncertainty regarding the precise level of effect in many cases. This is in part due to the often complex interactions in the marine environment, such as between the design of devices and mobile species, or the potential changes to marine hydrodynamics and patterns of sedimentation with costal processes. Gaps in the understanding of these effects are being filled through research and the assessment and monitoring of demonstrator projects and initial commercial scale projects.

5.2.2 The following sections highlight some of the potential effects and environmental risks associated with tidal devices. This is followed by a regional summary of the headline risks from the Draft Plan Options. The level of risk to environmental features is based on the potential effects of the technology and the sensitivity of the receiving environment.

Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna

5.2.3 The SEA identified potential effects on fauna and fauna from tidal development which has the potential for a number of types of effect as detailed below. However, the significance of many effects may not be fully known as technologies are still in development, and untill the results monitoring from existing installations is available.

5.2.4 Mortality and injury risks to marine fauna have been considered. The potential for collisions and entanglement between marine fauna and devices and their moorings has been identified, particularly for those with moving parts. Significance depends on the size and design of the device, the location of the device and its proximity to receptors. Avoidance is a likely response for many species, and so risk is generally considered to be low and unlikely, but if collision were to occur, impacts could result in serious injury or fatality in some instances especially with larger species (seals, otters, cetaceans, basking sharks). The presence of new structures in the water column can disrupt movements or migration of marine mammals and fish, particularly where devices are grouped. Currently the precise migration routes for species are not well defined and there is uncertainty about whether devices will impact directly on species or whether they will simply alter their movement accordingly.

5.2.5 There is potential for collision of diving birds with devices within the water column. Collisions could be fatal for some marine birds, especially deep divers ( e.g. common guillemots). The ongoing HRA has looked at physical damage to species including Bottlenose dolphins and Harbour porpoise, Grey and Harbour seals, Atlantic salmon, Lamprey, Shad, seabirds and diving birds. The appraisal indicates further work at the project level will be required.

5.2.6 Noise and vibration during construction and operation can also lead to displacement in marine fauna. Whilst the exact effects of noise and vibration are relatively unknown it is thought that some species could be attracted to noise sources and increase the chance of damage to their health. Displacement can also result from the placement of devices in areas used by species for foraging activities, courtship behaviour and breeding sites. The HRA considers noise and vibration effects on species including Bottlenose dolphins, Harbour porpoise, Grey and Harbour seals, Atlantic salmon, Lamprey and Shad. It is considered that in some cases construction outside of breeding or migratory seasons might minimise effects.

5.2.7 Potential impacts on the behaviour of seals and otters can be particularly associated with near shore devices, as could birds where devices are placed near to shoreline habitats, restrict movements, and migratory routes or foraging areas. Barriers to movement and effects on species including Bottlenose dolphins, Harbour porpoise, Grey and Harbour seals, Atlantic salmon, Lamprey and Shad are also considered within the ongoing HRA. Furthermore the HRA will consider visual disturbance to surface feeding and diving birds.

5.2.8 Species health could also be impacted by the effects of electromagnetic fields ( EMF) from cabling, in particular elasmobranchs and fish. Although research on effects is ongoing the indication is effects could be minimal. The HRA considered these the effects of EMF on European habitats and species.

5.2.9 Research and assessment of tidal technologies has identified a range of potential impacts on benthic habitats. There is a degree of direct loss as a result of installation. The presence and type of mooring used for devices and the presence of structures on the seabed are the main impacts to benthic habitats. Impacts to seabed habitats from the devices are likely to result from changes to wave energy dissipation, tidal flows and flux changes and deposition, scouring, deposition, abrasion, smothering and siltation, due in large to this presence of structures in the water column and on the seabed. The HRA also considers direct and indirect physical damage to habitats and contamination resulting from elevated turbidity.

5.2.10 Previous assessments have also identified the potential for the creation of artificial habitats for marine organisms as a result of new structures in the water. This may be aided by potential reductions in commercial fishing ( e.g. trawling) in areas where tidal technology is located.

Water and the Marine Environment

5.2.11 Tidal devices have the potential to result in local changes to hydrodynamics, alter water turbulence and change tidal flows and fluxes. Water quality impacts could arise as a result of changes to sediment dynamics, scouring, deposition, smothering and changes to water turbulence. These may be associated with the installation and presence of support cables and structures on the seabed. Additional contamination risks might be associated with leakage from vessels or equipment during installation and operation of devices.

5.2.12 Furthermore there is potential for impacts to the ability of fish species to spawn, respire and feed, and on shellfish growing waters in the vicinity of wave farm sites, particularly near shore devices. The significance of these effects will depend on the proximity of devices to these waters.

5.2.13 Effects can be mitigated largely through applying environmental controls during construction and from hydrodynamic modelling and design to reduce impacts such as turbidity.

Climatic Factors

5.2.14 Tidal energy is considered to contribute to the decarbonisation of electricity generation over the long-term which will be beneficial for climatic factors.

5.2.15 Some coasts and coastal processes are already impacted by climate change and projects level assessment should consider how new devices may interact with this existing pattern of change.

Marine Geology and Coastal Processes

5.2.16 Preparation of the seabed for the installation of devices could result in disturbance of sediments and loss and abrasion of geology. Further impacts include from changes to turbidity, wave dissipation and tidal fluxes, release of contaminated materials bonded to sediments. These can result from the installation of devices, mooring systems and subsea cabling and the interplay of these effects may also interact with coastal processes.

5.2.17 Changes to hydrodynamics and water flows may have an interaction with coastal processes. Impacts would be of greatest significance where important coastal geological features including geological SSSI and GCRs are located. Project level assessment will need to consider impacts on geology and coastal features based on the location of individual projects.

Historic Environment

5.2.18 Effects on designated and non-designated submerged archaeology, including wrecks have been identified. Impacts can be associated with direct damage during construction but also from scouring, siltation and deposition around assets located in the vicinity of devices or arrays. Careful location of devices in regards of historic assets can mitigate potential effects.

5.2.19 Tidal devices sit on the seabed or within the water column, however, some elements of the devices and supporting infrastructure and lighting are visible above the water line. The magnitude of visual effects depends on visibility and positioning of devices in regards to onshore features. Whilst effects are considered likely to be of low significance on the setting of features, these will be determined and appropriate mitigation can be applied through appropriate project design and location within Draft Plan Options.

Landscape and Seascape

5.2.20 Landscape and visual effects of the devices will depend on the presence of surface-piercing structures, marker buoys and lights for navigation, particularly if located near-shore and in large numbers. As predominantly submerged devices, the significance of impacts of tidal technology may be lower than for other technologies, although this will depend on their location and the characteristics of the receiving environment. The greatest effects are likely to result during construction of devices. EIA is required to determine the significance of effects within the Draft Plan Options. Development that will affect NSAs should avoid adverse effects on the integrity of the area or the qualities for which it has been designated.

Regional Environmental Issues

5.2.21 The environmental issues identified above are relevant for Draft Plan Options within all of the regions. The following sections highlight regions where the receiving environment may be particularly sensitive to potential effects and hence a higher risk of significance.

South West Region

5.2.22 Based on known presence of species, many of form the basis of designated areas in the Solway, there are risks to species based on the potential for collision, disturbance and displacement for diving birds, fish (including Atlantic salmon and Lamprey), and in particular elasmobranchs (including Basking Shark) and cetaceans (including whales) in the vicinity of TSW1 which is understood to be close to migratory routes. The timing of construction activity may be one particular means to avoid the greatest impacts and should be based around the life cycles of species potentially impacted. Project level EIA will need to determine the significance of effects and establish such mitigation measures. Ongoing research can help to provide more information to assist in this determination of significance.

5.2.23 The Draft Plan Option TSW1 overlaps with the Luce Bay and Sands SAC and Mull of Galloway SAC. Project level HRA should demonstrate that development does not adversely affect the integrity of the designation alongside any other SPA/ SAC scoped into an assessment.

5.2.24 The potential for effects on coastal habitats should be considered at the project level in relation to any impacts on the seabed, patterns of sedimentation and changes to hydrodynamics.

5.2.25 Landscape and seascape character and quality are considered high across the regions coastline with three NSAs and an AONB on both sides of the Solway coastline. As devices will be largely below the water surface visual effects may be limited, however effects of associated lighting and infrastructure on Luce Bay will need to be considered as part of project level EIA. Furthermore, impacts on local communities and also the setting of historic features, such as those at Whitthorn Peninsula require consideration. Development that will affect NSA should avoid adverse effects on the integrity of the area or the qualities for which it has been designated.

West Region

5.2.26 Given the presence of many important breeding and roosting sites for birds in the region there is a level of risk of collision and disturbance to birds during both construction and operation, in particular diving birds. These risks also extend to the many important mobile marine species found in the region, including amongst others Basking shark, Harbour porpoise, Minke whales and seal species. Devices acting as barriers to movement may also interrupt migratory routes and courtship behaviours for some species.

5.2.27 The timing of construction activity may be one particular means to avoid the greatest impacts and should be based around the life cycles of species potentially impacted. Project level EIAs will need to determine the significance of effects and establish such mitigation measures. Ongoing research can help to provide more information to assist in this determination of significance.

5.2.28 Draft Plan Option TW2 has a small overlap with the Clyde Sea Sill MPA (proposed for Black guillemot). Project level EIAs will need to demonstrate that development is compatible with the conservation objectives of the any proposed MPA.

5.2.29 The potential for effects on coastal habitats should be considered at the project level in relation to any impacts on the seabed, patterns of sedimentation and changes to hydrodynamics including changes to wave period and water turbidity and turbulence.

5.2.30 Landscape and seascape character and quality are considered high and the region includes the Mull of Kintyre and Islay and several areas considered to be wild land. As devices will be largely below the water surface visual effects may be limited, however effects of associated lighting and infrastructure may remain. Detailed impact assessment will need to form part of project assessment in order to determine the significance of impacts on landscape, local communities and also the setting of historic features.

North Region

5.2.31 The region is known to support many mobile marine species including seabirds, fish (including Atlantic salmon and Sand eel), Common and Grey seals, whales, dolphins and elasmobranchs (including Basking Shark). There is a level of risk of collision and noise disturbance to birds during both construction and operation, in particular for diving birds. Collision, displacement and barriers to movement for all mobile marine species remains a risk, although this may vary between the types of tidal device installed within a Draft Plan Option.

5.2.32 The significance of risk to protected species will need to be established as part of EIAs and HRAs during the development planning and licencing process. The timing of construction activity may be one particular means to avoid the greatest impacts and should be based around the life cycles of species potentially impacted. Furthermore, ongoing research can help to provide more information to assist in this determination of significance.

5.2.33 A number of Draft Plan Options overlap with European designations, although often the overlap may be minimal. TN1 overlaps with the North Caithness Cliffs SPA, Hoy SPA and Pentland Firth Island SPA; TN2 overlaps with Rousay SPA; TN3 overlaps with Papa Westray SPA; TN4 overlaps with East Sanday Coast SPA and Ramsar and Sanday SAC; TN5 overlaps with the Sumburgh Head SPA; TN6 overlaps with Yell Sounds Coast SAC; and TN7 overlaps with the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA. Project level HRAs should demonstrate that development does not adversely affect the integrity of these SPAs and any other SPA/ SAC scoped into an assessment.

5.2.34 Draft Plan Option TN4 overlaps with the North West Orkney MPA (proposed with Sand eel interest features). TN3 overlaps with the Papa Westray MPA, (proposed for Black guillemot and Marine Geomorphology). TN2 overlaps with Wyre and Rousay Sounds MPA (proposed for kelp and seaweed communities on sublittoral sediment, maerl beds and marine geomorphology). Project level EIA will need to demonstrate that development is compatible with the conservation objectives of the proposed MPA.

5.2.35 The potential loss of seabed and benthic habitat can be limited through site level survey. Avoidance of important habitat and project level assessment of changes to patterns of sedimentation and hydrodynamics may also provide mitigation of potential effects.

5.2.36 Landscape and seascape character and quality are considered high across the regions coastline, with several areas considered to be wild land. Designations in the region include the Hoy and West Mainland NSA and the Shetland NSA. The latter is particularly relevant to site TN5. As devices will be largely below the water surface visual effects may be limited, however effects of associated lighting and infrastructure may remain. Detailed impact assessment will need to form part of project assessment in order to determine the significance of impacts on landscape, local communities, including valued features such as the regions NSAs, and also the setting of historic features, in particular the Heart of Neolithic Orkney WHS which is particularly relevant to Draft Plan Options TN2 and TN3. Development that will affect NSAs should avoid adverse effects on the integrity of the area or the qualities for which it has been designated and avoid impacts on the outstanding unique value of the WHS.

5.3 Economy and other marine users

5.3.1 This section summarises the findings of the socio-economic assessment relating to the economic impacts of Draft Plan Options for tidal energy on other marine activities. These impacts are reported at 'planning region' level, rather than at the level of specific Draft Plan Options. More detail on this analysis can be found in Chapters 4.2, 5.3, 7.3 and Appendix C of the socio-economic assessment.

South West Region

5.3.2 Based on a pro-rata share of the indicative scale of development shown in Table 5.1, it is assumed that the following proportions of Draft Plan Option area TSW1 could be developed.

Table 5.1: Potential Portions of Draft Plan Options Developed in the South West Region (% of Spatial Area)

Scenario	TSW1
Low	0.8%
Medium	2.6%
High	5.1%

5.3.3 Such development could have the potential to interact with commercial fisheries, energy generation, military interests, recreational boating, shipping, and water sports.

Quantified Impacts

5.3.4 The study was able to quantify aspects of the impacts on commercial fisheries, recreational boating, and shipping. The most significant impact at a regional level was observed for shipping, as a result of additional fuel costs associated with route deviation. No costs to shipping or recreational boating were recorded under the low or medium scenario. These estimated costs are set out in Table 5.2 below.

Table 5.2: Present value ( PV) costs for Tidal Energy in the South West Region, £m (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, values rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost GVA (derived from landed values)	0.01	0.03	0.06
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	-	-	0.06
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	-	1.07
Total PV costs		0.01	0.03	1.19

Non-Quantified Impacts

5.3.5 The study identified several other sources of cost that could arise to marine activities from development in Draft Plan Option area TSW1. However, it was not possible to monetise these costs, so these have been assessed qualitatively in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3: Non Quantified Impacts on Other Marine Activities for Wave Energy in the West Region

Marine Activity	Non-Quantified Impact
Commercial Fisheries	Potential small overlap with steaming routes.
Energy Generation	Potential competition for space between offshore wind development and tidal development.
Military Interests	Potential to interfere with underwater communications.
Recreational Boating	Potential for deterring sailing through areas, owing to increased difficulties for navigation arising from development.
Water Sports	Sea kayaking and scuba diving occur with the TSW1 Draft Plan Option area while scuba diving also overlaps with the route corridor between this Draft Plan Option area and the potential landfall. The cost to water sports activities (including recreational angling) associated with tidal developments within the Draft Plan Option areas is assessed as negligible

West Region

5.3.6 Based on a pro-rata share of the indicative scale of development shown in Table 5.4, the following proportions of Draft Plan Option areas TW1 and TW2 could be developed.

Table 5.4: Potential Portions of Draft Plan Options Developed in the West Region (% of Spatial Area)

Scenario	TW1	TW2
Low	0.8%	0.9%
Medium	2.6%	2.6%
High	5.1%	5.1%

5.3.7 Such development could have the potential to interact with commercial fisheries, energy generation, military interests, ports and harbours, recreational boating, shipping, and water sports.

Quantified Impacts

5.3.8 The study was able to quantify aspects of the impacts on commercial fisheries, and shipping. The most significant impact at a regional level was observed for shipping, as a result of additional fuel costs associated with route deviation. No costs to shipping were recorded under the low or medium scenario. These estimated costs are set out in Table 5.5 below.

Table 5.5: Present value ( PV) costs for Tidal Energy in the West Region, £m (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, values rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost GVA (derived from landed values)	0.02	0.05	0.1
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	-	1.89
Total PV costs		0.02	0.05	1.99

Non-Quantified Impacts

5.3.9 The study identified several other sources of cost that could arise to marine activities from development in Draft Plan Option areas TW1 and TW2. However, it was not possible to monetise these costs, so these have been assessed qualitatively in Table 5.6.

Table 5.6: Non Quantified Impacts on Other Marine Activities for Tidal Energy in the West Region

Marine Activity	Non-Quantified Impact
Commercial Fisheries	Overlap with a significant navigation route for vessels steaming around this area. Coupled with the strong currents experienced in this location, this may pose a potential navigation hazard. This is most likely to affect vessels from Ayr and Campbeltown
Energy Generation	Energy generation from differing forms of technology will lead to competition in the transmission capacity which would affect all Draft Plan Option areas.
Military Interests	Potential overlap between the Draft Plan Option areas and the proposed cable routes and military practice and exercise areas. Potential to interfere with underwater communications
Ports and Harbours	Potential to interact with all the ports and harbours in the West region. In addition there is the potential for reduced port development opportunities to occur with the presence of the Draft Plan Option area TW2 under the high scenario. However the assessment has identified that due to the scale of the development within under any scenario within the Draft Plan Option areas it would be possible to avoid conflict with port access routes and channels through careful planning.
Recreational Boating	Potential for deterring sailing through areas, owing to increased difficulties for navigation arising from development.
Water Sports	Sea kayaking occurs within TW1 and TW2 Draft Plan Option areas while scuba diving also overlaps with the route corridor between these Draft Plan Option areas and the potential landfall together with surfing and windsurfing in TW2. Costs to water sports activities, including recreational angling, associated with offshore wind development in Draft Plan Option area assessed as negligible.

North Region

5.3.10 Based on a pro-rata share of the indicative scale of development shown in Table 5.7, the following proportions of Draft Plan Option areas TN1, TN2, TN3, TN4, TN5, TN6, and TN7 could be developed.

Table 5.7: Potential Portions of Draft Plan Options Developed in the West Region (% of Spatial Area)

Scenario	TN1	TN2	TN3	TN4	TN5	TN6	TN7
Low	0.8%	1.5%	2.0%	0.8%	2.0%	2.5%	2.2%
Medium	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
High	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%	5.1%

5.3.11 Such development could have the potential to interact with carbon capture and storage, commercial fisheries, energy generation, military interests, oil and gas, ports and harbours, recreational boating, shipping, and water sports.

Quantified Impacts

5.3.12 The study was able to quantify aspects of the impacts on commercial fisheries, shipping, and water sports (sea angling). The most significant impact at a regional level was observed for shipping, as a result of additional fuel costs associated with route deviation. No costs to shipping or water sports (sea angling) were recorded under the low or medium scenario. These estimated costs are set out in Table 5.8 below.

Table 5.8: Present value ( PV) costs for Tidal Energy in the North Region, £m (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, values rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost GVA (derived from landed values)	0.06	0.13	0.25
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	-	-	9.33
Water Sports -Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	-	-	0.35
Total PV costs		0.06	0.13	9.93

Non-Quantified Impacts

5.3.13 The study identified several other sources of cost that could arise to marine activities from development in the Draft Plan Option areas. However, it was not possible to monetise these costs, so these have been assessed qualitatively in Table 5.9.

Table 5.9: Non Quantified Impacts on Other Marine Activities for Tidal Energy in the West Region

Marine Activity	Non-Quantified Impact
Carbon Capture and Storage	Potential overlaps with possible carbon and storage sites.
Commercial Fisheries	Potential overlap with navigation routes, resulting in deviation of navigation for affected vessels, particularly under high scenario, with associated costs. Vessels most likely to be affected expected to be those based in Scrabster and Kirkwall.
Energy Generation	Energy generation from differing forms of technology will lead to competition for transmission capacity which would affect all Draft Plan Option areas.
Military Interests	Potential overlap between the proposed cable routes and military practice and exercise areas. Potential to interfere with underwater communications.
Oil and Gas	Should tidal energy export cables cross over existing oil and gas pipelines or cables, it has been assumed that the costs would be borne by the developer. While the oil & gas industry's interests will largely be protected by the relevant cable crossing agreements, it is currently unclear whether all of the industry's liabilities may be covered by such agreements.
Ports and Harbours	The main identified impact to ports and harbours associated with tidal developments within the Draft Plan Option areas relates to increases in marine risk, specifically the temporary collision risk while cable laying or maintenance is being carried out. However the assessment considers that it would be possible to avoid conflict with port access routes and channels through careful planning of cable laying and maintenance activities.
Recreational Boating	Potential for deterring sailing through areas, owing to increased difficulties for navigation arising from development.
Water Sports	Sea kayaking occurs within all Draft Plan Option areas while scuba diving also overlaps with the TN3 Draft Plan Option area. Windsurfing and surfing are also undertaken within the potential cable route areas between all Draft Plan Option areas and landfall except for TN6 and TN7. Costs to water sports activities associated with offshore wind development in Draft Plan Option area assessed as negligible.

5.4 People and Health

5.4.1 This section summarises the findings of the socio-economic assessment relating to the potential social impacts of Draft Plan Options for tidal energy that could arise from impacts on other marine activities. These impacts are reported at 'planning region' level, rather than at the level of specific Draft Plan Options. More detail on this analysis can be found in Chapters 4.2, 5.3, 7.3, and Appendix C of the socio-economic assessment and within the population and human health section of the Environmental Report.

Population and Human Health

5.4.2 There is potential for conflicts of space with commercial, fishing and recreational vessel movement and thus there is a level of collision risk. However, risks for vessels with smaller hulls may be lower than for larger ships, dependant on location and device types. Measures including exclusion zones, lighting and marker buoys can mitigate for some accident risk.

5.4.3 Some displacement of activities is possible. In terms of recreational activities these may be particularly acute if devices are placed in near shore areas with blanket vessel exclusions where recreational use can be more concentrated. Collision and displacement risks are also considered to be reversible and would reduce upon decommissioning.

Regional Issues

5.4.4 The following sections highlight regional social issues identified in the assessments.

South West Region

5.4.5 The socio-economic assessment found that social impacts within the region might arise through interactions between development and the following sectors: commercial fisheries, recreational boating, and water sports. The main impacts are likely to be on employment (as a result of the impact of increased costs or reductions in turnover), and environment and health, in relation to sea kayaking.

5.4.6 The SEA identifies that the region is popular for recreational boating and cruising. There is potential for some collision risk, particularly with large hull vessels, or displacement of activities particularly if devices include exclusion zones in near shore areas narrowing navigation channels. Consultation with the sector during project planning is recommended to reduce the likelihood of impacts.

Quantified Impacts

5.4.7 None of the social impacts within the South West Region are quantified as being significant.

Non Quantified Impacts

5.4.8 Tables 5.10 and 5.11 summarise the results of the distributional analysis, showing where impacts are likely to be greater for a particular social group, equal, or lower than the overall impact. Dredgers and potters within commercial fisheries in Ayr and Campbeltown may possibly be impacted due to potential lost landings. Recreational boating may possibly be impacted in Wigtown, Kirkcudbright and Whitehaven due decreased access to sites. For most groups the impacts are only minimal and are unlikely to result in noticeable effects.

Table 5.10: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the South West Region (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	x	xx	xx Ayr, Campbeltown	x	x	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Ayr, Campbeltown	x	x	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	x	x
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	xx Wigtown, Kirkcudbright, Whitehaven could be particularly affected	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	x	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	0	x	No specific settlements affected	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	x	x

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect,
x x : possible negative effects,
x: minimal negative effect, if any,
0: no noticeable effect expected

Table 5.11: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the South West Region (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Dredgers and potters	xx Vessels >10m length x Vessels <10m in length
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0 Unlikely to own boat	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	xx Boat users	No other specific group identified
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	xx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to reduce activity if navigation risks increase
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	x	x	x	0 Not relevant in SW	x	x	xx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect,
x x : possible negative effects,
x: minimal negative effect, if any,
0: no noticeable effect expected

West Region

5.4.9 The socio-economic assessment found that social impacts within the region might arise through interactions between development and the following sectors: commercial fisheries, recreational boating, and tourism. The main impacts are likely to be on employment (as a result of the impact of increased costs or reductions in turnover), and environment (mainly due to increased emissions or changes in environmental quality). Other impacts, such as on access to services, health, and culture and heritage could largely be mitigated, although there may be some minimal impacts on recreational boating and sea kayaking.

5.4.10 The SEA identified that the region is popular for recreational boating and cruising with several popular routes between islands and the mainland. There is potential for some increased collision risk, particularly with large hull vessels, or displacement of activities particularly if devices include exclusion zones in near shore areas narrowing navigation channels. Consultation with the sector during project planning is recommended to reduce the likelihood of impacts.

Quantified Impacts

5.4.11 None of the social impacts within the West Region are quantified as being significant.

Non Quantified Impacts

5.4.12 Tables 5.12 and 5.13 summarise the results of the distributional analysis, showing where impacts are likely to be greater for a particular social group, equal, or lower than the overall impact. Potters and Nephrops trawlers within commercial fisheries in Oban, Mallaig and Stornoway may possibly be impacted due to potential lost landings and obstruction of navigation routes. Recreational boating may possibly be impacted in Oban and Dunstaffnage marinas due decreased access to sites. For most groups the impacts will be minimal at worst.

Table 5.12: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the West Region (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Commercial fisheries	Value of potentially lost landings	0	xx	xx Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Obstruction of navigation routes	0	xx	xx Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Oban, Mallaig, Stornoway	x	xx	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	x Oban, Dunstaffnage marinas could be affected if number of boaters reduces (but others could benefit)	0	x	x	x	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sports activity (sea kayaking)	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect;
x x : possible negative effects;
x: minimal negative effect, if any;
0: no noticeable effect expected

Table 5.13: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the West Region (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Commercial fisheries	Loss of traditional fishing grounds	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	x	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Potters	xx Nephrops trawlers
	Obstruction of navigation routes	x	x	x	xx Where fishing provides additional income	x	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Potters	xx Nephrops trawlers
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x	x	x	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	xx Where employed in this area	xx	xx	xx May be more likely to have smaller boats	xx	xxx Could affect ability to support trips for disabled/ sick	xxx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain services	xxx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely reduce activity if navigation risks increase
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sports activity (sea kayaking)	x	x	x	x	x	x	xx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect;
x x : possible negative effects;
x: minimal negative effect, if any;
0: no noticeable effect expected

North Region ¹⁵

5.4.13 The socio-economic assessment found that social impacts within the region might arise through interactions between development and the following sectors: carbon capture and storage, commercial fisheries, recreational boating and water sports. The main impacts are likely to be on employment (as a result of the impact of increased costs or reductions in turnover) and the environment (mainly due to increased emissions or changes in environmental quality). There may also be impacts on education (specifically research and development) if opportunities for carbon, capture and storage are minimised (although it is likely that investment would move elsewhere if competition for space was a deciding factor). Other impacts, such as on access to services, health, and culture and heritage could largely be mitigated, although there may be some noticeable impacts, such as on sea anglers, sea kayakers and recreational boaters.

5.4.14 The SEA identifies that the region is popular for recreational boating and cruising with several popular routes between islands and the mainland. Furthermore there are commercial shipping routes. There is potential for some increased collision risk, particularly with large hull vessels, or displacement of activities particularly if devices include exclusion zones in near shore areas narrowing navigation channels. Consultation with the sector during project planning is recommended to reduce the likelihood of impacts.

Quantified Impacts

5.4.15 None of the social impacts within the West Region are quantified as being significant.

Non Quantified Impacts

5.4.16 Tables 5.14 and 5.15 summarise the results of the distributional analysis, showing where impacts are likely to be greater for a particular social group, equal, or lower than the overall impact. The shellfish sector within commercial fisheries in Orkney, Scrabster and Shetland may possibly be impacted due to additional fuel costs. Recreational boating may possibly be impacted in Kirkwall and Pierowall due to decreased access to sites. Sea angling may possibly be impacted due a reduction of expenditure in this region. For most groups the impacts will be minimal at worst.

Table 5.14: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the North Region (location, age and gender)

Sector	Impact	Location			Age			Gender
		Urban	Rural	Settlement	Children	Working age	Pensionable age	Male	Female
Carbon capture and storage	Competition for space: Draft Plan Option areas and/or cable corridors overlap or lie inshore of potential storage areas	0	x Could have impact on rural economy if investment goes elsewhere	0 Unlikely to affect specific locations	0	x Could have impact on employment opportunities if investment goes elsewhere	0	x	x
Commercial fisheries	Additional fuel costs	0	xx	xx Orkney, Scrabster, Shetland	x	xx	x	xx Fishermen more likely to be male	x
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	x	x	x Orkney, Scrabster, Shetland	x	x	x	x	xx Processors more likely to be female
Recreational boating	Alterations to informal cruising routes	0	x	x	x	x	x	x	x
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	0	x	xx Pierowall and Kirkwall, plus pontoons could be affected	0	x	x	x	x
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx (may be more likely to be involved in sea angling)	x
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	0	x	No specific settlements affected	x	x	x	x	x

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect;
x x : possible negative effects;
x: minimal negative effect, if any;
0: no noticeable effect expected

Table 5.15: Distributional analysis for Tidal Energy in the North Region (income and social groups)

Sector	Impact	Income			Social groups
		10% most deprived	Middle 80%	10% most affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long-term sick	Special interest groups	Other
Carbon capture and storage	Competition for space: Draft Plan Option areas and/or cable corridors overlap or lie inshore of potential storage areas	xx economic impacts could affect this group more than others	x	x	x Unlikely to be employed in this industry (but may be for extra income)	x	0 Unlikely to be affected, economic impacts likely to be small	0 None likely to be affected	xx Local businesses that might otherwise have been involved
Commercial fisheries	Additional fuel costs	xx	xx	xx	xx Where fishing provides additional income	xx	0 Unlikely to be employed in fisheries	xx Shellfish x Demersal, pelagic sectors	xx Vessels <15m x Vessels >15m
	Consequential impacts to fish processors	xx	xx	x	x	x	0	x	x
Recreational boating	Alterations to informal cruising routes	0 Unlikely to own boat	x	x	x	x	x	xx Boat users	No other specific group identified
	Increased deterrent to access in sites that are already challenging to navigate	x	x	x	xx May be more likely to have smaller boats	x	x	xx Could mean they need to relocate to maintain level of access for recreational boating	xx Potentially greater impact on less affluent sailors with smaller, less powerful boats without electronic aids. They may be more likely to reduce activity if navigation risks increase
Water sports - Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	xx	xx	xx	xx	xx	x Level of sea angling activity may be lower for sick	xxx	No other specific group identified
Water sports	Spatial overlap between Draft Plan Option areas and water sport activity (sea kayaking)	x	x	x	x	x	x	xx Sea kayakers could have to change routes or look for alternatives	No other specific group identified

Impacts:
x x x : significant negative effect;
x x : possible negative effects;
x: minimal negative effect, if any;
0: no noticeable effect expected

5.5 Summary of Effects

5.5.1 The SEA cannot predict with certainty the precise significance of effects on the environment as opportunities to mitigate and minimise effects exist at the project level, primarily through project design and location. Furthermore the significance of predicted effects may only be fully understood as initial projects are monitored. The headline environmental effects of the draft plan for tidal energy are summarised in the bullets below:

• Potential effects on biodiversity as a result of collision with devices, particularly those with underwater components, barriers to movement of mobile species, and impacts on behaviours of species in inshore areas. Furthermore potential for noise impacts on sensitive species are possible from the construction of devices. The SEA considers potential effects on diving birds, cetaceans, seals, elasmobranchs and fish species, particularly from collision with moving parts of tidal devices. Additionally there may be direct loss of seabed habitat from the installation of devices and effects associated with potential changes to patterns of tidal and sediment movement on marine habitats.
• Scope for impacts on water quality from contamination as a result of changes to turbidity and turbulence, and seabed disturbance in areas of existing contamination. The significance of effects will depend on the proximity of devices to sensitive areas, such as those for fish spawning and feeding and shellfish growing waters.
• Positive effects for climate change mitigation through moving to decarbonisation of energy supply.
• Changes to turbidity, sediment disturbance, and loss of geology in placing devices may have secondary impacts on coastal processes. The significance of effects will depend on the proximity of devices to more sensitive coastlines such as those with geological SSSI and GCRs.
• Potential direct effects on submerged archaeology during construction and in some cases. Tidal devices and associated infrastructure may have some above water elements and so the setting of features of the historic environment remains a consideration, although the potential for significant effects is not considered to be high.
• Potential for visual impacts on landscape and seascape character as a result of the presence of surface-piercing structures, and potentially marker buoys and lights for navigation, particularly if located near-shore and in large numbers. As predominantly submerged devices, the significance of impacts of tidal technology may be low, although this will depend on location and the quality of the receiving environment. Effects may therefore be greater during the construction rather than operation phase. The magnitude of visual effects depends in general on visibility and positioning of devices in regards to onshore features. Visual effects for other sea users, such as recreation vessels, may increase if constructed in popular recreational locations. Effects from lighting at night time are possible and potentially of greater significance for near shore areas.
• In some locations new devices could increase collision risk between vessels if channels of vessel movements are reduced due to potential exclusion zones. Collision risks with devices are low for small recreational craft. The likelihood of effects are considered to be of lower significance and able to be mitigated. Furthermore there may be some potential for displacement of recreational activity in some near shore locations.

5.5.2 Table 5.16 demonstrates the quantified economic impacts of Draft Plan Options for tidal energy on other marine activities at a national level. These figures are aggregated from the regional level analyses presented above.

Table 5.16: Present value ( PV) costs for Tidal energy at a national level, £m (costs discounted over assessment period, 2012 prices, values rounded to nearest £0.01m)

Activity	Description of Measurement	Scenarios
		Low	Central	High
Commercial Fisheries	Value of potentially lost GVA (derived from landed values)	0.09	0.21	0.41
Recreational boating	Additional fuel costs	0	0	0.06
Shipping	Additional fuel costs	0	0	12.29
Water Sports -Sea Angling	Reduction in expenditure	0	0	0.35
Total PV costs		0.09	0.21	13.11

5.5.3 The majority of quantified impacts of the Draft Plan for Tidal fall upon the shipping industry, particularly within the North region. In addition to the above, there are also a number of non-quantified impacts. These impacts on the following marine activities: commercial fisheries, carbon capture and storage, energy generation, military interests, oil and gas, ports and harbours, recreational boating, shipping and water sports. The nature of these does not lend itself to them being aggregated at a national level, but the relevant information is presented within the regional sections above.

5.5.4 There will also be a number of social impacts, as discussed in the previous section. These will fall almost entirely at a regional (or sub-regional) level, but may include national impacts on coastal communities, the 10% most income deprived decile and some specific social groups.

5.5.5 Nonetheless, most of the social impacts are likely to be felt at a very local level. The real significance of the local impacts could only be fully explored through a specific, local assessment, which is beyond the scope of this appraisal. For example, it has not been possible to explore whether a local area might become increasingly deprived if there were impacts on jobs, partly because the impacts are generally small but also because the specific locations of the impacts cannot be clearly identified. In addition, the 5% threshold for assessing quantitative impacts may under-estimate effects on certain businesses that may be disproportionately affected as impacts are unlikely to be evenly distributed across a sector.

5.5.6 Social impacts have generally been assessed as knock-on impacts from the direct effects on activities. This means that areas such as employment, environment and health have been included to a greater extent than the much more indirect effects on crime or education. Again, these indirect effects may become more evident in a specific, local assessment.