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Publication - Research and analysis

Early Adopter Communities: Evaluability Assessment

Published
24 October 2024
From
Director-General Education and Justice
Directorate
Children and Families Directorate
Topic
Children and families
ISBN
9781836016441

This report presents the findings of an evaluability assessment for the school age childcare Early Adopter Communities. This includes considerations and recommendations for process, impact, and economic evaluations.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

2. Theories of change and causal pathways

This chapter covers key information from the EAC theories of change and expected causal pathways, which underpin the evaluation methods discussed throughout the rest of this report. All the theory of change diagrams developed for the EACs can be found in full in Appendix A.

EAC theories of change

Theory of change development

Two main theories of change were developed for the EACs:

  • The national-level EAC theory of change – this maps out Scottish Government and national stakeholder actions required to deliver the policy, and how these are expected to lead to intended policy outcomes.
  • The local-level EAC theory of change – this provides an overview of core activities that are expected to take place within the EACs, as well as the common intended outcomes at a local level.

The local-level EAC theory of change provided the core framework for this evaluability assessment, because it set out the common activities and outcomes expected across EACs. However, each EAC was also supported to develop their own individual, tailored theory of change to illustrate each EAC’s unique approach. While these area-specific theories of change informed the overall local-level EAC theory of change, they are not directly referenced in this report.

Developing each theory of change was a collaborative process, based on in-person theory of change workshops with EAC staff and project leads, the Scottish Government, and other stakeholders. The evaluation team then produced an accompanying narrative (see Appendix B) for the local-level EAC theory of change. The evaluation team also identified possible causal pathways which show how certain activities and outputs are expected to lead to priority outcomes (the selection of priority outcomes is discussed further in Chapter 3). This was informed by a review of current evidence supporting each pathway.

Overview of local-level EAC theory of change

As part of the workshops, stakeholders agreed the following vision for EACs:

“EAC areas will provide a childcare offer that meets the needs of families who need it most. This will increase wellbeing and employability among families and reduce the poverty-related outcomes gap.”

Stakeholders highlighted how EACs are expected to achieve this vision in line with the School Age Childcare Programme Approach Principles, which emphasise the importance of: co-design; working innovatively to increase school age childcare capacity, reduce inequality of access, and minimise costs; making it easier for families to find childcare and family support; and continuous monitoring, learning and adapting the EAC offer.

The first phase of the EACs (October 2022 – March 2023) focused on project set up, whereas the second phase (April 2023 – March 2024) focused on continuing and strengthening existing provision as well as expanding the offer to include new partners. Funding has now been agreed for a third phase, which will run until March 2026 and see existing EACs further develop their activities as well as the set-up of new EACs in Fife and Shetland. They will also broaden their scope to include childcare for younger children, to understand what it takes to deliver local childcare systems that support families with children from the early years to the end of primary school. Key EAC activities identified during theory of change workshops included both those at a systems-level (such as scoping and co-designing provision, partnership working, and developing the childcare workforce) and those relating to direct delivery for families (such as providing subsidised school age childcare, promoting the offer and establishing referral pathways).

During workshops, stakeholders identified expected short- to medium-term outcomes of EACs for target families and at a system level. Key examples included:

  • More affordable, flexible and accessible childcare for target families;
  • Improved understanding of how to deliver high quality childcare and continued improvement of EAC policy;
  • Stakeholder buy-in and improved partnership working;
  • Reduced financial pressure for families;
  • Parental income from employment maximised;
  • Improved family wellbeing, including fewer crisis points; and
  • Improved social, emotional and behavioural development for children.

Longer-term intended impacts were also identified, both for children and families and for school-age childcare provision at a systems level. Key examples included:

  • A sustainable system of childcare;
  • Fewer families living in poverty;
  • Sustained parental mental health and wellbeing; and
  • Sustained child physical, mental and social wellbeing.

Causal Pathways

The evaluation team then identified four assumed causal pathways which provide more detail on how given inputs and activities are expected to lead to outcomes. These are shown in Figures 2.1 to 2.4 and cover how EACs are expected to:

  • Design a childcare system around families’ needs
  • Reduce child poverty through supporting parents to work
  • Improve child physical, mental and social wellbeing
  • Improve parental mental health and wellbeing.

These are explained in further detail in the narrative provided in Appendix B, including examples of existing evidence for each pathway.

Figure 2.1: Causal pathway 1 - Designing a system around families’ needs
Scoping, co-design and monitoring activities are expected to lead to an improved understanding of how to deliver high quality childcare. This is expected to lead to childcare that is placed based, accessible and person-centred. A full written description of this causal pathway can be found in Appendix A.
Figure 2.2: Causal pathway 2 - Reducing child poverty through supporting parents to work
Children attending EAC childcare is expected to lead to parents being more able to work and maximise income from employment. It is also expected to reduce their cost of living. Reducing financial pressure in this way is expected to contribute to fewer families living in poverty. A full written description of this causal pathway can be found in Appendix A.
Figure 2.3: Causal Pathway 3 - Improved child wellbeing
EAC childcare is expected to lead to children having increased social connections, opportunities for learning, being active and access to nutritious food. This is expected to lead to improved physical, mental and social wellbeing. A full written description of this causal pathway can be found in Appendix A.A diagram showing the elements of causal pathway 3 described in the text. Activities and outcomes are in separate boxes, linked by arrows.
Figure 2.4: Causal Pathway 4 - Improved parental wellbeing
Provision of EAC family support is anticipated to lead to more families engaging with support, leading to improved and sustained parental wellbeing. At the same time, children attending EAC childcare should increase parental respite and also contribute to improved parental wellbeing. A full written description of this causal pathway can be found in Appendix A.

Contact

Email: socialresearch@gov.scot

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