Early Learning and Childcare Expansion to 1140 hours: Interim Evaluation Report

Executive Summary

From August 2021 the entitlement to funded early learning and childcare (ELC) in Scotland increased from 600 to 1140 hours per year for all three and four year olds, and eligible two year olds. The ELC expansion aims to contribute to three high-level outcomes:

1. Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows

2. Parents' and carers' opportunities to take up or sustain work, study or training increase

3. Family wellbeing improves

Local authorities are responsible for delivery of funded ELC, either though direct provision themselves or through funding other providers. Scottish Government provided over £60 million funding in 2017-18 to begin phasing in investment in the ELC sector from 2017-18, to ensure the required capacity was in place. While the statutory entitlement to 1140 hours came into force from August 2021, expanded provision was phased in over the preceding four years. Phasing was designed to ensure that those children who stood to benefit the most from the expansion benefitted first. Local authorities had flexibility to determine the most appropriate way to phase in the entitlement. Full statutory implementation of the expansion was delayed from August 2020 to 2021 to allow local authorities to deal with the urgent necessities of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Scottish Government published an Evaluation Strategy in 2022. The Strategy sets out how the impact of the ELC expansion will be assessed. It highlights that, to contribute to its high-level outcome aims, the ELC expansion needs to realise the 'intermediate outcomes'of providing accessible, flexible, affordable and high quality ELC, and maximising take up of expanded ELC.

This Interim Evaluation Report provides an evidence-based picture of how things stood in the initial period after the full statutory implementation of the ELC expansion in August 2021, and how that compares to the preceding years. Where possible, it considers trends from around 2016-17 – the year before any phasing of expanded ELC began – until 2022, or the most recent year data is available. The report presents analysis and reporting on the key indicators for the intermediate outcomes, and on the sector and workforce. It also draws on findings from relevant qualitative and survey research to consider progress. It should be noted that there is a time-lag between data being available and the production of this report, and these data are monitored on an ongoing basis. A Final Evaluation Report is due to be published in late 2025.

Changes in the ELC sector and workforce

The delivery of the ELC expansion is dependent on having sufficient capacity in ELC services and the workforce in place. Care Inspectorate data shows that the number of daycare of children services in Scotland decreased from 3,733 to 3,514 between 2016 and 2022. By contrast, the overall capacity of services increased from 165,010 to 179,920 during this period, with larger increases between 2018 and 2021 as phasing for the expansion took place. This was driven by an increase in the number and average size of nurseries, while the number of other services decreased. There was a large decrease in the number of childminding services, in particular, from 5,660 in 2016 to 3,530 in 2022, with capacity decreasing from 35,180 to 22,040. The proportion of services providing funded ELC increased for all day care of children service types. While the proportion of childminding services delivering funded ELC increased slightly, the total number decreased.

The total daycare of children workforce increased between 2017 and 2022, from 34,020 to 42,190. The public sector's share of this workforce also increased from 42% in 2017 to just over half (52%) in 2022. The private and voluntary sectors' share of the daycare workforce fell during this period (from 40% to 35%, and 19% to 14% respectively). The public sector had the lowest turnover of staff and highest retention in 2021-22. Retention was lowest in the private sector. There was movement of staff from the private and voluntary sectors to the public sector. However, there was almost no movement the other way. Private and voluntary sector employers are, therefore, more dependent on new entrants to fill vacancies. Loss of staff and challenges recruiting staff have been highlighted as concerns for private and voluntary sector services.

Scottish Social Services Council (SSSC) data show that the ELC workforce is overwhelmingly female (97% in 2022). The median age of childminders is higher than daycare of children staff (50 vs 35 respectively in 2022). The median age of childminders also increased from 45 in 2016. The median age of staff is lowest in private sector services at 28 and highest in public sector at 40.

Progress on intermediate outcomes

Take up of funded ELC

Whether parents and carers (from hereon in referred to as 'parents' for brevity) take up the extra hours of funded ELC is an important indicator of successful implementation. Overall take up of funded ELC among three and four year olds was 97% in 2023, and has remained consistently high since 2016 (generally between 97% and 99%). For two year olds, take up has generally increased from 9% of the total population in 2016 to 13% in 2023. It should be noted that for both age groups 2020 was an exception where take up dropped (to 9% for two year olds and 95% for three and four year olds), which may be due to the effects of Covid-19. Of those two year olds eligible for funded ELC, an estimated 52% were registered in 2023.

Of those children accessing funded ELC, the proportion using more than 600 hours of funded ELC increased from 80% in 2020 to 98% in 2023. The largest increase was between August 2020 and August 2021 (from 80% to 97%), which may be, in part, due to the decreased take up in 2020. In 2023, 90% were using the full 1140 hours. The 2022 ELC parent survey found that two year olds were less likely to be accessing the full 1140 hours than older children (52% vs 73%).

Accessibility of funded ELC

Accessibility and flexibility of provision are important factors in the take up of ELC. Overall, the analysis suggests that awareness of funded ELC availability had improved between 2017 and 2022, though there remained a small minority of households unaware of the availability of funded ELC. For example, around a sixth of households with a three to five year old not using funded ELC were unaware of availability or did not know how to apply in the 2022 ELC parent survey. This decreased from around a third in the 2017 survey. This proportion was higher in households with a two year old, at just under three in 10 in 2022. A small percentage of households (2-3% each year) reported transport difficulties in the Scottish Household Survey (SHS). Around three in 10 parents of children with additional support needs (ASN) had experienced difficulties accessing funded ELC in the 2022 ELC parent survey. This was an improvement from 2017 when 48% stated they had experienced difficulties.

Flexibility of funded ELC

Flexibility is important in ensuring that funded ELC is accessible and in supporting parents to work. This report looks at whether some specific aspects of flexibility are in place and parents' experiences of flexibility.

Care Inspectorate data shows that the proportion of settings providing funded ELC operating outside school hours or during holidays increased by 14 percentage points since 2016, to 64% in 2022. There was, though, considerable variation by local authority. In the Scottish Household Survey, the proportion of households that reported a lack of provision in the school holidays as an issue decreased from 19% in 2018 to 6% in 2022.

In the 2022 ELC parent survey, flexibility remained an issue for a small minority of parents in accessing the full 1140 hours. This was particularly the case for parents of three to five year olds: of those not using the full 1140 hours, around a quarter mentioned that they could not get the sessions they wanted at their preferred setting.

Affordability of childcare

The provision of funded ELC sits alongside wider UK support with childcare costs that parents in Scotland may be entitled to. The ELC Expansion supports affordability for parents by reducing the number of hours of childcare that they need to purchase. This would be expected to reduce their overall childcare costs, compared to pre-expansion.

SHS data shows that fewer families were having to pay for additional hours of childcare to meet their needs after the ELC expansion. In 2018, half of families with a child aged two to five but not yet at school had no childcare costs, rising to 63% in 2022. In the 2022 ELC parent survey, one in three parents of children aged under six who paid for childcare had not experienced any difficulties with affordability. Three fifths had experienced some difficulties, including 16% who had experienced significant difficulties. As would be expected, given their access to funded ELC, parents of three to five year olds were significantly less likely to have had difficulties than parents of children aged two years old and younger, who were not eligible for funded ELC. Lone parents were more likely to report significant difficulties affording their childcare costs compared with couples. Parents in deprived areas and parents of a child with ASN were also more likely to report significant difficulties compared with others.

Quality of funded ELC

Quality of ELC is a key determinant of improvement in children's outcomes. The National Standard sets out what children and families should expect from their early learning experience in Scotland regardless of where they access their child's funded hours. SHS data found that parental satisfaction with the quality of funded ELC is high, with 93% very or fairly satisfied with the provision they receive in 2022. This was an increase from 86% in 2018. This was also reflected in the ELC parent survey, in which 97% of parents said they were satisfied with the quality of the provision from their main funded ELC provider, with 70% very satisfied.

Care Inspectorate provide information on the quality of ELC services through analysis of grading data. The normal inspection programme was suspended in March 2020 in response to Covid-19, which means there is a gap in thematic inspection data on the quality of ELC services for the majority of 2020 to the start of 2022. The proportion of settings providing funded ELC achieving grades of good or better across all four key questions in Care Inspectorate quality evaluations decreased between 2014 and 2019, from 93% to 90%, but has since stabilised at around 90% between 2019 and 2022. This proportion is highest among public sector settings.

Indicative progress and the impact of the pandemic

As set out in the 2022 Evaluation Strategy, the Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare (SSELC) is collecting the main evaluation data on the high-level outcomes for children, parents and families. During 2018 and 2019, baseline data was collected on the outcomes of children accessing 600 hours of funded ELC and their parents. Data on the outcomes of children accessing 1140 hours of funded ELC and their parents is being collected during 2023 and 2024.

The Covid-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the lives of families in Scotland. Although the long term impacts of the pandemic on families are still not known, the growing evidence from a range of research studies suggests that many young children and their families have been negatively affected. While ELC has the potential to play an important role in mitigating some of the negative impacts, it is expected that there will be some medium and long-term impacts on the outcomes the ELC expansion seeks to influence.

In the interim, before SSELC results are available, the available data on trends in outcomes for pre-school age children and findings from research with parents on their perceptions of the impact of the expansion are discussed. Considering statistics on Early Child Development and Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels, the impact of the pandemic can be seen in an increase in developmental concerns and a decrease in proportions of primary one pupils achieving the expected CfE levels after 2020. The proportions of primary one pupils achieving the expected levels of literacy and numeracy have both increased back to pre-pandemic levels since 2020-21. However developmental concerns in the early years remain higher, which will be a consideration for interpreting the final evaluation findings.

Qualitative research found that parents considered ELC as supporting their child(ren)'s general development, including helping to tackle some of the developmental issues perceived to have arisen because of the pandemic. There are promising signs from survey and qualitative research with parents that the ELC expansion is supporting some parents back/into work, study or training. For example, the 2022 ELC parent survey asked about the impact that funded ELC had had on parents' lives: around three quarters (74%) mentioned it had enabled them to work or look for work and 71% that they were able to think about what they may do in the in the future. Large proportions of parents also mentioned perceived positive wellbeing impacts, such as feeling happier (47%) or less stressed (46%).

Next steps

During 2025, the full SSELC dataset will be analysed and comparisons between post-expansion and baseline for children's health and development and parents' economic activity, health and wellbeing set out. An economic evaluation of the ELC expansion is also underway and will report in late 2025. The planned Final Evaluation Report will present findings from analysis of the full SSELC dataset on changes in child, parent and family outcomes, and the economic evaluation. Alongside this will be updated analysis reporting on changes in the intermediate outcomes, the sector and the workforce.