Early Learning and Childcare Expansion to 1140 hours: Interim Evaluation Report

4. Indicative progress and next steps

This report set out to provide an evidence-based picture of progress after full statutory implementation of 1140 in August 2021. It aims to review progress with the intermediate outcomes set out as needing to be in place to achieve the high-level outcomes. The analysis has considered changes in indicators for accessibility, flexibility, affordability, take up and quality of funded ELC, as well as trends in the sector and workforce, between 2016 and the most recent year data is available.

4.1. Summary of progress on the intermediate outcomes

Overall take up of funded ELC for three and four year olds remained consistently high between 2016 and 2023, and increased among the two year old population as a whole. In 2023 just over half of eligible two year olds were registered for funded ELC. Looking at take up of expanded funded ELC, by 2023, almost all children using funded ELC were accessing more than 600 hours, and 9 in 10 the full 1140 hours. The largest increase in the proportion of children accessing expanded ELC was between 2020 and 2021, when the statutory duty started. Two year olds were less likely to be accessing the full 1140 hours than older children. Research findings suggest that, while some parents choose not to take up any or the full 1140 hours of funded ELC, accessibility and flexibility remained barriers for others.

In general, findings on accessibility are positive, and awareness of funded ELC among parents of three and four year olds was high in 2022. However, there remained small proportions of parents for whom awareness of the offer or transport difficulties were barriers. Awareness of two year old eligibility also remained lower than for the universal offer. Similarly, flexibility of funded ELC – both in terms of settings operating outside of term time hours or school holidays, and parental satisfaction – improved since the baseline period. There was, though, considerable variation between local authorities in ELC provision outside school hours. Issues with aspects of flexibility remained a key issue for a minority of parents, particularly for parents of three to five year olds in terms of accessing their full entitlement.

There are promising signs that the ELC expansion is helping many parents with the costs of childcare. Fewer families with a child aged two to five were having to pay for additional hours of childcare to meet their needs, while a higher proportion of families reported having no childcare costs. However, the majority of parents of pre-school age children who paid for childcare had experienced some difficulties with affordability. The costs of childcare more generally have been flagged as a key concern in other research, particularly in the context of the cost-of-living crisis.^[6]

Parental satisfaction with the quality of funded ELC was high in 2022 and had increased since 2018. However, the proportion of settings providing funded ELC achieving grades of good or better across all four key themes in Care Inspectorate quality evaluations decreased slightly between 2014 and 2019. This has since stabilised at around 90%. Also, the proportion of private sector settings achieving grades of good or better is lower than for other types of setting and has decreased since the pandemic. The challenges for the private sector in terms of turnover and retention of staff highlighted in chapter 2 are an important context in interpreting these trends. This is a key area to monitor given the central role of quality of ELC in achieving outcomes for children.

4.2. Measuring the high-level outcomes

Key points

• The Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare is collecting the key evaluation data on outcomes for children, parents and families. The findings will be available in 2025. In the interim, the available data on trends in outcomes for pre-school age children and their parents are considered.
• While ELC has the potential to play a significant role in mitigating some of the negative impacts of the pandemic, it is expected that there will be some medium and long-term impacts on the outcomes the ELC expansion seeks to influence.
• In both the Early Child Development and Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Level statistics, the impact of pandemic can be seen in an increase in developmental concerns and decrease in proportions of primary 1 (P1) pupils achieving the expected levels after 2020.
• The proportions of P1 pupils achieving the expected levels of literacy and numeracy have both increased back to pre-pandemic levels since 2020-21.
• However developmental concerns in the early years remain higher, which will be a consideration for interpreting the final evaluation findings.
• Qualitative research found that parents considered ELC as supporting their child(ren)'s general development, including helping to tackle some of the developmental issues perceived to have arisen because of the pandemic.
• There are promising signs from survey and qualitative research with parents that the ELC expansion is supporting some parents back/into work, study or training. Large proportions also mentioned perceived positive wellbeing impacts.

As set out in the Evaluation Strategy, the Scottish Study of Early Learning and Childcare (SSELC) is collecting the key evaluation data on the high-level outcomes for children, parents and families. The SSELC takes a before and after approach and is collecting data across several phases from 2018 to 2024. The study was designed to evaluate whether the ELC expansion programme has achieved its objectives by measuring outcomes for children and parents who received the previous funded entitlement (600 hours) and comparing them with those who are receiving the increased funded entitlement (1140 hours).

During 2018 and 2019, phases 1, 2 and 3 collected baseline data on the outcomes of children accessing 600 hours of funded ELC and their parents. Descriptive analysis from each phase of the SSELC baseline data collection has been published: the SSELC Phase 1 report was published in August 2019, the SSELC Phase 2 report in August 2020 and the SSELC Phase 3 report in December 2020.

Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the SSELC are now collecting data on the outcomes of children accessing 1140 hours of funded ELC and their parents during 2023 and 2024. This will provide a comparison group from which we can assess the impact that the increase in funded hours has had on child and parent outcomes. There is more detail about the SSELC approach and methodology in the Evaluation Strategy and baseline reports.

The post-expansion phases of the SSELC were originally planned for 2022 to 2023 – beginning toward the end of the autumn term two years after the original statutory implementation date – to allow the expansion and related changes to the sector to bed in. Due to the delay to full statutory implementation of 1140 hours, the decision was taken to move Phases 4-6 back one year in line with the change to the statutory implementation date. While the impacts of the pandemic are still being felt, this was considered to balance allowing some time for recovery and changes to bed in, with providing data on the expansion within reasonable timescales.

The Covid-19 pandemic had a profound impact on the lives of families in Scotland. As set out in the ELC Expansion Evaluation Strategy, while the long-term impacts of the pandemic on families and the economy are still not known, the growing evidence from a range of research studies suggests many young children and their families have been negatively affected, especially those who were already disadvantaged.^[7] While ELC has the potential to play an important role in mitigating some of the negative impacts of the pandemic for children and families, it is expected that there will be some medium and long-term impacts on the outcomes the ELC expansion seeks to influence.

During 2020 and 2021, protective public health measures curtailed many interactions young children and their parents would regularly have in ELC settings and wider social contexts. Studies have suggested negative short to medium term impacts on behaviour and development among many young children. For some families with young children, the pandemic had an impact on parental employment and household income. Increases in stress and reductions in parental wellbeing have been found, especially for mothers. For example, the Scottish Health Survey has shown that levels of wellbeing in the population have not bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Average mental wellbeing fell significantly between 2021 and 2022, following a significant drop between 2019 and 2021.

4.3. Trends in children's outcomes

In the interim, before SSELC results are available, the next section considers the available data on trends in outcomes for pre-school age children. This is intended to provide an indication of whether progress is being made on these outcomes and the possible impact of the pandemic, although it is not possible to link these trends directly to either the ELC expansion or the pandemic. This section also draws together findings from the research with parents during 2021 and 2022 on their perceptions of the impact of the ELC expansion. Finally, the next steps for the evaluation programme are discussed.

Trends in development concerns in the early years

The Early child development statistics - Scotland 2022 to 2023 published by Public Health Scotland provide data on assessments of child development in the early years as part of the Child Health Programme. The series of assessments are at 13-15 months; 27-30 months, shortly before starting funded ELC, unless eligible at age two; and 4-5 years, in the final year of funded ELC for most children.

In 2022-23, 18% of children at the 27-30 month review and 17% of those at four-five year review had a concern noted about at least one area of their development. At the 27-30 month review most concerns were noted about speech, language and communication (13%), and at the 4-5 year review most concerns were noted about speech, language and communication (8%), and emotional/behavioural development (8%).

Compared with the previous year (2021-22), the percentage of children with a concern noted about at least one area of development was similar at the 27-30 month reviews, but higher at the four-five year review (17% in 2022/23 vs 15% in 2021/22). The proportion of children recorded as having any developmental concern at their 27-30 month review reduced from 19% in 2013/14 to 15% in 2017/18, remaining around this level for four years, before an increase to 18% in 2021/22, and remaining at 18% in 2022/23.

At each development review there was a clear deprivation gradient, with those living in the most deprived areas of Scotland more likely to have had a concern recorded for at least one developmental domain compared with those living in the least deprived areas. At 27-30 months, the proportion of children recorded as having a developmental concern was 2.7 times higher among children living in the most deprived areas (27%) than those in the least deprived areas (10%). This absolute difference of 17 percentage points is the widest gap observed across the 10 years of reporting on this review.

Trends in performance of Primary 1 pupils

The Scottish Government Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levels 2022-23 statistics provide information on the proportion of school pupils who have achieved the expected Curriculum for Excellence (CfE) Levelsin literacy and numeracy relevant to their stage. Achievement of CfE levels data are based on teachers' professional judgements of individual pupil performance. The data reflect what pupils had achieved by the end of the school year – i.e. June 2023. Data collection includes for pupils in the primary 1 (P1) stage (five-six year olds) – the year after funded ELC for those who attended.

For P1 pupils, the proportions achieving the expected level in literacy and numeracy in 2022-23 were the same as those in 2018-19. The proportions achieving the expected level decreased between 2018-19 and 2020-21, then increased in 2021-22 and 2022-23. As shown in Figure 14, for literacy 76% of pupils achieved the expected level in 2022-23, compared with 74% in 2021-22 and 71% in 2020-21. While for numeracy 85% achieved the expected level in 2022-23, compared with 84% in 2021-22 and 81% in 2020-21.

For literacy, the attainment gap between P1 pupils from the most and least deprived areas narrowed from 20.5 percentage points in 2021/22 to 19.7 percentage points in 2022/23. This was very slightly wider than in 2018/19 (19.2 percentage points), but narrower than in 2017/18 (20.2pp). The numeracy attainment gap narrowed from 15.1 percentage points in 2021/22 to 14.5 percentage points in 2022/23. This was still wider than it was in 2017/18 and 2018/19 (13.3 and 13.0pp).

Source: Achievement of Curriculum for Excellence (ACEL), 2023

Note 1: The ACEL collection and publication was cancelled in 2019/20 due to the difficulties in collecting data whilst schools were closed due to Covid-19. Data for this year has been imputed for graphing purposes only and should not be considered an accurate figure.

Parents' perceptions of the impact of the expansion on children's outcomes

The qualitative research with parents in 2021-22 found that parents considered ELC as supporting their child(ren)'s general development, both socially and educationally. Several participants also noted that the ELC staff had helped to identify additional needs and supported their child and family to address these. Funded ELC was also experienced as helpful in supporting families and children to tackle some of the developmental issues that were perceived to have arisen because of the Covid-19 safety measures. This included addressing separation anxiety and providing valuable experiences outwith the home.

4.4. Indicative progress on parental outcomes

Parents' perceptions of the impact of the expansion on them and their family

The 2022 parent survey asked about the impact that funded ELC has had on parents' lives, the activities they have been able to undertake, and their health and wellbeing. Figure 15 below shows that the most commonly selected impacts of the funded hours were to enable parents to work or look for work (74%) and to have time to think about what they may do in the in the future (mentioned by 71%). The next most commonly mentioned were wellbeing impacts, although substantially less frequently: just under half have been feeling happier (47%), less stressed (46%) and have had time to look after themselves more (44%).

Source: Parent Survey 2022

Being able to work/look for work was more likely to be mentioned by two parent families (76% vs 65%) and those in groups earning more than £16,000+ compared with those earning less than £16,000 (71%-79% vs 64%). These sub-groups were also more likely to say their funded hours enabled them to increase the number of hours they work.

Having time to think about the future was more likely to have been said by those from deprived areas compared with non-deprived areas (77% vs 70%), lone parents compared with couples (76% vs 70%), people in no or single earner households compared with two-earners households (78% or 75% vs 68%), as well as by younger (under 25) parents compared to older parents (90% vs 64%-80%). These groups were generally also more likely than others to say that they were using their hours to study/develop skills, to care for others, and to look after themselves better and have been feeling happier and less stressed.

The qualitative research with parents found that the impacts of funded ELC were generally seen as positive for the child, the parents, and overall family wellbeing. For parents, the funded ELC provision was said to support them back/into work, education or training, and/or allowed them time to tackle housework or other 'chores', reducing stress in the household and meaning that time with their child was more relaxed quality time.

In families where mothers had returned to work after maternity leave and the family had been using privately funded childcare options, the importance and benefit of the funded ELC provision was largely financial. Once their child became eligible, it meant a large proportion (and sometimes all) of their childcare costs were removed, providing greater financial stability for the family. Several participants indicated that they had been able to find a job or start a course at college specifically because of the funded ELC provision. It was also noted to support parents with their own mental health, and in particular, was highlighted as providing valuable respite for lone parents, as well as couples where one parent took on the majority of the childcare responsibilities. In several cases, funded ELC had also relieved some of the childcare burden on other family members (often grandparents) or had allowed parents to spend more dedicated one-to-one time with their other children (particularly babies, but also older children), both of which were highly valued.

4.5. Next steps in the evaluation

As noted earlier, data collection for Phases 4 to 6 of the SSELC is ongoing and will be completed by the end of 2024. During 2025, the full SSELC dataset will be analysed and comparisons between post-expansion and baseline for children's health and development and parents' economic activity, health and wellbeing set out. An economic evaluation of the ELC expansion is also underway and will report in late 2025 (see the Evaluation Strategy for more detail on the economic evaluation approach).

The planned Final Evaluation Report will present findings from analysis of the full SSELC dataset on changes in child, parent and family outcomes, and the economic evaluation. Alongside this will be updated analysis reporting on changes in the intermediate outcomes, the sector and the workforce. It is anticipated that the Final Evaluation Report will be published in late 2025.