Early learning and childcare expansion programme: evaluation strategy
Our strategy for evaluating the impact of the early learning and childcare (ELC) expansion programme to 1140 hours. It is an outcomes-based evaluation strategy and the primary focus is on measuring outcomes for children, parents and carers, and families.
Visual Summary
Outputs Inputs
- Appropriate funding and governance is provided at national and local authority level
- Sufficient capacity is created across Scotland to provide 1140 hours ELC in terms of staff, buildings, etc., including making best use of partner provider capacity
Intermediate outcomes
- Expanded ELC is high quality
- Sufficiently flexible to meet parents’ needs
- Accessible for all and parents are aware of it
- Affordable for all parents
- Take up of expanded ELC is maximised so that it meets the needs of children and families, particularly those who will benefit most.
- Increased parental confidence and capacity through enhanced nurture and support
High-level outcomes
- Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows
- Family wellbeing improves
- Parents' opportunities to take up or sustain work, training, or study increase
Output |
Evaluation question |
Measures |
Data sources |
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Outputs |
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Sufficient capacity is created across Scotland to provide 1140 hours ELC |
How is delivery of the expansion programme progressing? |
No of 2/3 to 5 year olds receiving < 600 funded hrs; % in LA, private partner, childminder settings Capacity for 1140 hours in local authority settings Additional local authority staff in place No of refurbishment, extension, new build projects |
Improvement service Improvement service Improvement service Scottish Futures Trust |
Understanding changes in the ELC Sector and Workforce |
Ongoing use of range of data sources to explore changes in the composition and capacity of the ELC sector and workforce (including in relation to sector sustainability, Fair Work and pay across the sector, in particular payment of the Real Living Wage). |
Care Inspectorate SSSC data ELC Census |
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Intermediate outcomes |
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Expanded ELC is high quality |
How has the quality of ELC provision in funded settings changed following the expansion? |
% of services providing funded ELC recorded as good, v good, excellent in Care Inspectorate inspections % of ELC staff with a qualification condition by provider sector and job function % of parents reporting they are satisfied with the overall quality of funded ELC |
Care Inspectorate SSSC Scottish Household Survey (SHS) |
Accessible for all and parents are aware of it |
How has the accessibility of funded ELC changed following the expansion? |
% of households who do not use funded ELC because: don't know if child is eligible; not aware; 'Don't know how to apply/find applying too difficult' % households who do not use ELC due to transport difficulties |
SHS SHS |
Sufficiently flexible to meet parents' needs |
How has the flexibility of funded ELC changed following the expansion? |
% ELC services open extended hours/school holidays % of households who do not use ELC due to lack of flexibility/ choice |
Care Inspectorate SHS |
Expanded ELC is Affordable for all parents |
How has the affordability for parents of both funded and unfunded ELC changed following the expansion? |
% of households with ELC-age children who find it easy to afford childcare % of households with ELC-age children saying they have no childcare costs, 'childcare is free/funded' |
SHS SHS |
Take up of expanded ELC is maximised |
How has the take up of funded ELC changed following the expansion? |
No. and % of 2 year olds, 3 & 4 year olds registered for funded ELC No. of 2 year olds, 3 to 4 year olds and 5 year olds (deferrals) accessing funded ELC No. and % of children accessing funded ELC |
Current ELC Census Improvement Service New ELC Census |
Increased parental confidence and capacity |
What impact has the ELC expansion had on parental confidence and capacity in: engaging with their child's learning and enhancing the home learning environment; and promoting their own wellbeing and confidence? |
Home learning environment scale score 'Parental warmth' scale score % parents saying they get enough support with childcare % parents saying they 'always feel I am coping really well' or 'most of the time I feel I am coping pretty well' as a parent |
Scottish Study of ELC Parent questionnaire |
High-level outcomes |
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Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows |
What impact has the expansion had on cognitive & language development? What impact has the expansion had on social, behavioural & emotional development? What impact has the expansion had on the poverty-related development gap? What impact has the expansion had on children's physical health and wellbeing? |
Children's ASQ scores at the end of ELC (particularly for 'Communication') Children's SDQ 'total difficulties' scores at the end of ELC The gap between ASQ and SDQ scores by SIMD and household income at the end of ELC Children's ASQ 'gross motor' scores at the end of ELC |
SSELC - keyworker questionnaires SSELC - keyworker questionnaires SSELC - keyworker questionnaires SSELC - parent questionnaires |
Parents' opportunities to take up or sustain work, training, or study increase |
What impact has the expansion had on parents' ability to work, train or study? |
% of parents in work (f/t, p/t), study or training Average hours of work for parents in employment |
SSELC - parent questionnaires |
What impact has the expansion of ELC had on parental health and wellbeing? |
% parents whose general health is good or better Parental mental wellbeing scores |
SSELC - parent questionnaires |
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Family wellbeing improves |
What impact has the expansion of ELC had on family wellbeing? |
Measure of family wellbeing using Latent Class Analysis. Analysis aims to identify groups of parents who can be categorised on the basis of their responses to relevant questions on: parental health and wellbeing; home environment and parent-child relationship. |
SSELC - parent questionnaires |
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