Early learning and childcare expansion programme: evaluation strategy

1. Introduction and background

1.1. Introduction

1.1.1. This document outlines the Scottish Government's strategy for evaluating the impact of the early learning and childcare (ELC) expansion programme to 1140 hours. The evaluation work is being led by Scottish Government Children and Families Analysis.

1.1.2. This is an outcomes-based evaluation strategy and the primary focus is on measuring outcomes for children, parents and carers, and families as a whole. The approach taken builds on recommendations provided within the Evaluability Assessment conducted by NHS Health Scotland (now Public Health Scotland - PHS).^[1] The evaluation work outlined in this strategy consists of three main inter-related parts:

1) evaluating the accessibility, flexibility, affordability, quality and take up of funded ELC

2) evaluating the contribution of the expansion programme to outcomes for children, parents and carers^[2] and families, and

3) assessing the longer-term economic costs and benefits of the expansion programme.

1.1.3. Policy evaluation is a systematic assessment of a policy's design, implementation and outcomes. In general, it involves understanding how a government policy 'is being, or has been, implemented and what effects it has, for whom and why. It identifies what can be improved, and estimates its overall impacts and cost-effectiveness'.^[3]

1.2. Policy background and delivery of the ELC expansion

1.2.1. The Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 ('the 2014 Act') formalised the term 'early learning and childcare' to capture the learning journey that takes place from birth. This term highlights that care and education are closely linked. The 2014 Act increased the statutory entitlement to funded ELC to up to 600 hours per year for all eligible children and expanded the definition of an eligible child to include some two year olds, as well as all three and four year olds. Eligibility criteria have continued to evolve since the 2014 Act and now include two year olds that have experience of care themselves, have a parent with care experience or have a parent who is in receipt of one or more qualifying benefits.^[4]

1.2.2. In late 2014, the Scottish Government set out a commitment to almost double the hours of funded ELC from 600 to 1140 hours per year by the end of the next parliament (i.e. 2021).^[5] In 2016, the Scottish Government launched a consultation on this commitment - 'A Blueprint for 2020: Expansion of Early Learning and Childcare in Scotland'.^[6] Following that consultation, in 2017 the Scottish Government published an action plan that set out a policy framework to realise the expansion by 2020.^[7] The action plan emphasised the importance of a high quality experience for all children and set out how the capacity and supporting structures for the expansion - including infrastructure and the workforce - would be created.

1.2.3. Local authorities are responsible for delivery of ELC to the local communities in their area, within a context of providing high quality learning, teaching, care and nurture. It was recognised that existing ELC provision would have to be transformed to deliver 1140 hours by 2020 through an enhanced service model that reflects and is responsive to local needs. During late 2016 and early 2017, a programme of 14 trials took place across the country to test a variety of models for delivering ELC. A report on key findings from the evaluation of the trials was published in May 2018.^[8]

1.2.4. In March 2017, the Scottish Government published ELC Expansion Planning Guidance for local authorities which offered a framework to support local authorities in developing their initial plans.^[9] It set out key principles such as prioritising and safeguarding quality provision while offering parents a choice of settings, provider neutrality and service models that are flexible and responsive to parental demand. All 32 authorities submitted their first expansion plans in autumn 2017. These plans provided further detail of their approach to phasing in the expansion. Investment in the workforce and infrastructure were phased in from 2017-18 onwards to ensure that the required capacity was in place. This phasing was intended to ensure that those who stood to benefit the most from the expansion benefitted first.

1.2.5. In March 2018, the Scottish Government and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (CoSLA) consulted jointly on a new service model for delivery of the 1140 hours entitlement.^[10] The consultation set out the key features of the Funding Follows the Child policy framework and the National Standard which all providers delivering funded ELC would be required to meet. The consultation was developed by the Service Models Working Group which brought together local authority, COSLA and Scottish Government representatives and sought inputs from a range of providers and stakeholders throughout the development process.

1.2.6. In April 2018, a multi-year funding revenue and capital package for the expansion of ELC was agreed by Scottish Ministers and COSLA.^[11] The agreement was based on finance templates submitted by local authorities in March 2018, as reviewed by the joint ELC Finance Working Group and following adjustments agreed by Scottish Ministers and COSLA Leaders. The distribution methodologies underpinning local authorities' allocations were agreed by COSLA Leaders in April 2018.

1.2.7. In September 2018, the Early Learning and Childcare Joint Delivery Board was established. The Board was jointly chaired by the Minister for Children and Young People and the COSLA Spokesperson for Children and Young People. The purpose of the group was to provide overall governance of the ELC expansion programme, to manage and monitor progress against the key milestone plan to ensure that the Scottish Government and local authorities delivered the ELC expansion on time and within budget.

1.2.8. The Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 (Modification) (No. 2) Order 2019 placed a duty on education authorities to provide the increased 1140 hours of funded ELC to all eligible children from 1 August 2020.

1.2.9. In February 2018, Audit Scotland published an audit of ELC. It highlighted a number of risks to the expansion, including increasing the infrastructure and workforce to the levels required. Audit Scotland's follow up audit of ELC published in March 2020 reported that the Scottish Government and local authorities were making steady progress to deliver the expansion, but that risks remained in relation to 'getting enough people and buildings in place to deliver'. Audit Scotland is due to publish a third performance audit of funded ELC in 2023. A further performance audit will be carried out when there is more data available on the outcomes being achieved by the expansion.

1.2.10. In March 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic struck, the Deputy First Minister announced that all local authority schools and ELC settings in Scotland would close, other than for the provision of critical childcare to the children of key workers and vulnerable children.^[12] Childcare providers in the private and third sector were advised they should only remain open to support the children of critical workers and families most in need of support.

1.2.11. In April 2020, Scottish Ministers took the difficult decision to delay the full statutory implementation of the expansion of funded ELC. The duty on education authorities was revoked.^[13] This was necessary to allow local authorities to deal with the urgent necessities of the pandemic, including the delivery of critical childcare for vulnerable children and the children of key workers. It was also apparent that the national lockdown would have implications for the ability to deliver on key infrastructure projects and recruit the necessary workforce required to deliver the ELC expansion in full (see Section 3 for further discussion of the impacts of the pandemic on the sector and on children and families).

1.2.12. Since August 2020, Funding Follows the Child has also been subject to Interim Guidance, reflecting the impact of the pandemic. This has provided a small number of flexibilities for local authorities and providers on aspects of the National Standard. Versions of the Interim Guidance have been published in July 2020, March 2021 and in May 2022. The most recent version of the Interim Guidance sets out the position for 2022-23 and reflects the position agreed by the Joint Delivery Board for a gradual move towards full implementation of Funding Follows the Child and the National Standard.^[14] There will be a further review point on implementation of Funding Follows the Child in late 2022, ahead of updated guidance documents being made available in Spring 2023, to support full implementation from August 2023.

1.2.13. Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, the Scottish Government supported local authorities to work towards the delivery of 1140 hours of funded ELC where they were not already doing so. A majority of local authorities did choose to implement expanded hours during 2020-21. The Joint Delivery Board agreed in December 2020 that August 2021 would be the earliest feasible date for the implementation of the full 1140 expansion, following a review of readiness, including discussion with local authorities and the sector. The Children and Young People (Scotland) Act 2014 (Modification) Order 2021 was laid in Parliament on 22 January 2021 to reinstate the statutory duty from 1 August 2021.

1.2.14. The policy focus is now on embedding and realising the benefits of the 1140 expansion for children, their families and the sector. In addition, the Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children) (Scotland) Amendment Order 2020 was laid in Parliament in December 2020 to entitle all children whose school entry is deferred access to funded ELC by August 2023.^[15] Phased implementation of the obligation is underway with ten pilot local authorities during 2021-22 and 2022-23.^[16]

1.2.15. The Scottish Government is also currently developing two new policy commitments relating to childcare: to build a system of school age childcare, providing care before and after school, all year round, and supporting parents – particularly on low‑incomes – to have secure and stable employment; and to expand funded early learning and childcare to one and two year olds, starting in this Parliament with children from low-income households.^[17]

1.3. Intended outcomes of the ELC expansion programme

1.3.1. The Scottish Government wants every single one of Scotland's children to grow up in a country where they feel loved, safe and respected, and able to reach their full potential^[18]; this is at the heart of the commitment to expanding the funded ELC entitlement. The primary aim of the ELC expansion is to secure improved outcomes for children in Scotland, helping to provide children with skills and confidence to carry into school education and contributing to closing the poverty-related outcomes gap.

1.3.2. The expansion represents an important contribution to Scotland's national mission to tackle child poverty, as set out in the Scottish Government's Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plans for 2018-22 and 2022-26.^[19] An important part of the ELC offer is to support the wider family, maximising the contribution to Keeping the Promise and delivering holistic family support.

1.3.3. The expansion of funded ELC to 1140 hours, therefore, aims to contribute to three high-level outcomes:

• Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows
• Parents' opportunities to take up or sustain work, study or training increase
• Family wellbeing improves

1.3.4. To contribute to these high-level outcomes, our logic model for the programme highlights that the expansion must also achieve six 'intermediate outcomes' (see Figure 1 overleaf). These intermediate outcomes reflect four important principles for the 1140 expansion which were set out in the Blueprint in 2017: quality, flexibility, accessibility, and affordability.^[20] The final two intermediate outcomes reflect the importance of parents taking up the expanded offer, and ELC settings supporting parents' confidence and capacity.

1.3.5. The six intermediate outcomes for the expansion are defined as follows.

• Accessibility: ELC capacity should be sufficient and as conveniently geographically located as possible - particularly in areas of higher deprivation and in rural communities - to support families and enable parents and carers to work, train and study, while also appropriately meeting the needs of children who require additional support.
• Flexibility: The expansion should support parents and carers in work, training or study, as well as those with caring responsibilities. Patterns of provision should be better aligned with working patterns whilst being delivering in a way that ensures a high quality experience for the child.
• Affordability: The expansion should increase access to affordable ELC, including to help reduce barriers in the labour market participation that parents and carers face and to reduce household costs.
• Quality: The expansion should ensure a high quality experience for all children which complements other early years and educational activity to close the outcomes gap and recognises the value of ELC practitioners.
• Take up: Take up of expanded ELC should be maximised, particularly among those who will benefit most, so that it meets the needs of children and families.
• Parental confidence and capacity: The expansion should support parents and carers in engaging with their child's learning, enhancing the home learning environment and promoting their own wellbeing and confidence.

1.3.6. These six intermediate outcomes are described in more detail in Section 4.

Figure 1: Early Learning and Childcare Expansion Programme – Logic Model

Outputs Inputs

• Appropriate funding and governance is provided at national and local authority level
• Sufficient capacity is created across Scotland to provide 1140 hours ELC in terms of staff, buildings, etc., including making best use of partner provider capacity
  

Intermediate outcomes

• Expanded ELC is high quality
• Sufficiently flexible to meet parents’ needs
• Accessible for all and parents are aware of it
• Affordable for all parents
• Take up of expanded ELC is maximised so that it meets the needs of children and families, particularly those who will benefit most.
• Increased parental confidence and capacity through enhanced nurture and support

High-level outcomes

• Children's development improves and the poverty-related outcomes gap narrows
• Family wellbeing improves
• Parents' opportunities to take up or sustain work, training, or study increase