Publication - Research and analysis

Economic impacts for Scottish and UK seafood industries post-Brexit: report

Published: 5 June 2018
Directorate: Marine Directorate
Topic: Brexit, Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781788519755

The report presents findings from research examining the possible impacts of EU exit on Scottish and UK seafood industries.

Supporting documents

Appendix C: Scenarios

Detail on the scenarios is provided in Table C.1 (Scenario 1), Table C.2 (Scenario 2), Table C.3 (Scenario 3) and Table C.4 (Scenario 4) below.

Table C.1. Scenario 1 detail

Scenario 1	Trade Flow	Tariffs and NTMs		UK and EU Production (Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)
Scenario 1	Trade Flow	EU	Non- EU	UK	EU
Global Free Trade Agreement and increased UK production	Imports (to UK) from	Zero tariffs (no change)	Zero tariffs (eliminate current trade barriers)	UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment	EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment
	Imports (to UK) from	Minimum level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline): Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 5%	Minimum level of non-tariff measures (below baseline): Catch certificates (no change) Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 10%
	Exports (from UK) to	Zero tariffs (no change)	Zero tariffs (eliminate current trade barriers)
	Exports (from UK) to	Minimum level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline): Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 5%	Minimum level of non-tariff measures (below baseline): Trade defence Modelled at 10%

Table C.2. Scenario 2 detail

Scenario 2	Trade Flow	Tariffs and NTMs		UK and EU Production (Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)
Scenario 2	Trade Flow	EU	Non- EU	UK	EU
EEA-type agreement with EU (based on Norway’s), current trade arrangements with non- EU (grandfathering to UK, EU trade arrangements with RoW) and increased UK production	Imports (to UK) from	Tariff based on Norway EEA Agreement	Maintain baseline tariffs	UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment	EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment
	Imports (to UK) from	Non-tariff measures based on Norway EEA Agreement (moderate NTMs): Mutual recognition of standards, testing and certification (light-touch customs and veterinary checks) RoO Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 10%	Maintain baseline level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline): Testing and certification requirements (no change) RoO (no change) Catch certificates (no change) Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%
	Exports (from UK) to	Tariff based on Norway EEA Agreement	Maintain baseline tariffs
	Exports (from UK) to	Non-tariff measures based on Norway EEA Agreement (moderate NTMs) Mutual recognition of standards, testing and certification (light-touch customs and veterinary checks) RoO Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 10%	Maintain baseline level of non-tariff measures (equal to baseline): Testing and certification requirements (no change) RoO (no change) Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%

Table C.3. Scenario 3 detail

Scenario 3 – Slightly Pessimistic	Trade Flow	Tariffs and NTMs		UK and EU Production (Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)
Scenario 3 – Slightly Pessimistic	Trade Flow	EU	Non- EU	UK	EU
MFN tariffs on both EU and non- EU trade (default to WTO trade rules) and increased UK production	Imports (to UK) from	MFN tariffs	Existing tariffs	UK production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment	EU production adjusts based on Zonal Attachment
	Imports (to UK) from	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 15%	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates (no change) Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%
	Exports (from UK) to	MFN tariffs	Existing tariffs
	Exports (from UK) to	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 15%	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%

Table C.4. Scenario 4 detail

Scenario 4 – Highly Pessimistic	Trade Flow	Tariffs and NTMs		UK and EU Production (Catches, Based on Quota Distribution)
Scenario 4 – Highly Pessimistic	Trade Flow	EU	Non- EU	UK	EU
MFN Tariffs on both EU and non- EU trade (default to WTO trade rules) and no increase in UK production	Imports (to UK) from	MFN tariffs	MFN tariffs	No adjustment in UK production to reflect zonal attachment (current quota allocations maintained) No change for model, i.e. production based on current (2011-15) annual average landings	No adjustment in EU production to reflect zonal attachment (current quota allocations maintained) No change for model, i.e. production based on current (2011-15) annual average landings
	Imports (to UK) from	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 15%	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%
	Exports (from UK) to	MFN tariffs	MFN tariffs
	Exports (from UK) to	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Catch certificates Trade defence Modelled at 15%	Default WTO rules on non-tariff measures (high level of NTMs, equal to base): Full strength conformity assessment procedures and veterinary checks Trade defence (no change) Modelled at 15%

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Appendix C: Scenarios

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