Education Maintenance Allowances: 2015-16

 

2. Analysis and Interpretation

Recipients of EMA

5. In 2015-16 there were 31,735 young people who received EMA payments, a decrease of 4% (1,445) from 33,180 in 2014-15.

Figure 1: Young people in receipt of EMA by institution type: 2006-07 to 2015-16

6. Figure 1 shows how the number of people receiving EMA has changed over time. The overall total show a downward trend in the number of claimants since 2006-07.

7. In 2015-16, the majority (68% or 21,620) of EMA recipients accessed the programme while studying at a Scottish school, with the remaining 32% (10,115) attending a Scottish college ( Table 1).

8. Of all school pupils in Scotland aged 16 to 19 ^[1] , 31% (21,620) received at least one EMA payment in 2015-16 ( Table 1). This is the same proportion as seen in 2014-15, but a decrease from a high of 41% in 2006-07. Please note that this decrease does not necessarily indicate the rate of uptake has decreased. There are no data available on the number of school pupils who were eligible for EMA each year.

9. Of all full time college students ^[2] aged 16 to 19, 21% (10,115 ^[3] )* received at least one EMA payment in 2015-16 ( Table 1). This is the same proportion as seen in 2014-15.

*This was originally published as 11,015 (23%) representing an increase of 2 pp. This has been corrected on 8th November 2017.

Gender

10. In 2015-16, 49% (15,500) of EMA recipients were male and 51% (16,235) were female. ^[4]

11. Table 1 shows that the difference between the number of male and female EMA recipients at schools gradually decreased to close to zero from 2008-09 to 2014-15. This gap has reopened to 410 in 2015-16. The difference has similarly decreased for college students, and has remained steady since 2012-13.

Table 1: Young people in receipt of EMA by institution type and gender: 2006-07 to 2015-16

	Academic Year	Total	Male	Female
All Institutions	2006-07	37,480	17,245	20,235
	2007-08	37,275	16,955	20,320
	2008-09	39,000	17,870	21,130
	2009-10	37,230	17,385	19,850
	2010-11	34,780	16,660	18,115
	2011-12	34,390	16,730	17,660
	2012-13	35,515	17,400	18,115
	2013-14	35,470	17,175	17,885
	2014-15	33,180	16,300	16,875
	2015-16	31,735	15,500	16,235
Schools	2006-07	24,430	11,485	12,945
	2007-08	24,020	11,270	12,750
	2008-09	24,460	11,555	12,905
	2009-10	23,290	11,095	12,190
	2010-11	21,120	10,240	10,880
	2011-12	22,135	10,900	11,235
	2012-13	23,335	11,530	11,810
	2013-14	24,195	11,930	12,220
	2014-15	22,530	11,245	11,285
	2015-16	21,620	10,605	11,015
Colleges	2006-07	13,050	5,760	7,290
	2007-08	13,255	5,685	7,570
	2008-09	14,540	6,315	8,225
	2009-10	13,945	6,285	7,655
	2010-11	13,660	6,420	7,235
	2011-12	12,255	5,830	6,430
	2012-13	12,175	5,870	6,305
	2013-14	11,275	5,250	5,665
	2014-15	10,650	5,055	5,590
	2015-16	10,115	4,895	5,220

Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 5.
See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

Age

12. Figure 2 shows time series data for the different ages that receive EMA. Young people cannot receive EMA until they reach school leaving age. However, for data collection purposes, age is recorded on 30 ^th September each academic year, therefore there are some 15 year olds recorded as receiving EMA.

Figure 2: Young people in receipt of EMA by Age: 2006-07 to 2015-16

13. As in previous years, the majority of EMA recipients were 16 years old (14,405, 45%). 18 year olds and over make up the smallest number of EMA recipients (2,510; 8%). ( Table 2).

14. There has been a decrease of 4% in the number of 15 year olds (170); a decrease of 4% in the number of 16 year olds (545) and a decrease of 8% in 17 year olds (935) receiving EMA. Conversely, there has been an increase of 9% (200) in the number of over 18 year olds claiming EMA, which has been largely caused by college students.

Table 2: Young people in receipt of EMA by deprivation and age: 2006-07 to 2015-16

Deprivation Area	Academic Year	Age
		Total	15	16	17	18+
All Areas	2006-07	37,480	6,895	18,870	11,110	605
	2007-08	37,275	6,505	18,865	11,210	690
	2008-09	39,000	6,850	19,400	12,055	690
	2009-10	37,230	5,520	17,305	12,950	1,450
	2010-11	34,780	4,915	15,855	11,345	2,665
	2011-12	34,390	5,280	15,955	11,040	2,115
	2012-13	35,515	5,525	16,275	11,540	2,170
	2013-14	35,420	5,210	16,825	11,405	1,975
	2014-15	33,180	4,645	14,950	11,280	2,310
	2015-16	31,735	4,475	14,405	10,345	2,510
20% most deprived areas	2006-07	10,780	2,015	5,325	3,250	190
	2007-08	10,760	1,810	5,440	3,280	230
	2008-09	11,575	2,095	5,650	3,610	220
	2009-10	11,495	1,725	5,340	3,895	525
	2010-11	11,195	1,545	5,085	3,690	875
	2011-12	11,060	1,660	5,135	3,625	640
	2012-13	11,725	1,805	5,415	3,820	685
	2013-14	12,135	1,805	5,750	3,920	660
	2014-15	11,590	1,640	5,250	3,875	825
	2015-16	11,015	1,570	4,980	3,600	865
80% least deprived areas	2006-07	26,470	4,835	13,420	7,810	410
	2007-08	26,330	4,670	13,325	7,880	455
	2008-09	27,240	4,720	13,670	8,390	460
	2009-10	25,370	3,755	11,810	8,915	885
	2010-11	23,290	3,335	10,645	7,560	1,750
	2011-12	23,075	3,580	10,700	7,330	1,460
	2012-13	23,515	3,695	10,735	7,625	1,460
	2013-14	23,100	3,380	10,990	7,425	1,305
	2014-15	21,425	2,980	9,620	7,355	1,465
	2015-16	20,555	2,890	9,350	6,690	1,625

Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 5. Deprivation category was identified for over 99% of EMA recipients. ^[5]
SIMD 2012 has been used for academic years 2013-14. 2014-15, and 2015-16.
SIMD 2009 has been used for all other academic years.
See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

Deprivation

15. The proportion of EMA recipients living in Scotland’s 20% most deprived areas in 2015-16 remained stable at 35% (11,015). This is an increase 6 percentage points since 2006-07 (see Table 3). People from the 20% most deprived areas are therefore over-represented among EMA recipients. This might be explained in part by the fact that one of the main criterion for eligibility is household income, and income is a key domain in the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. ^[6]

16. The actual number of EMA recipients living in Scotland’s 20% most deprived areas in 2015-16 decreased by 575, in line with the overall decrease in EMA recipients (1,445).

17. Figure 3 shows that the trend over time is an increase in the proportion of school pupils receiving EMA who live in the 20% most deprived areas, which increased by 7 percentage points between 2006-07 and 2015-16 to 33%, compared to a 3 percentage point increase among college students over the same period, to 37%.

18. The proportion of college students receiving EMA who are from deprived areas has remained relatively stable over recent years, and has consistently been higher than the proportion for school pupils. This might be explained in part by the fact that people from the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland are generally over-represented in Scotland’s colleges.

Figure 3: Percentage of young people in receipt of EMA that are from deprived areas by institution type: 2006-07 to 2015-16

SIMD 2012 has been used for academic years 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16.
SIMD 2009 has been used for all other academic years.

Table 3: Young people in receipt of EMA by deprivation area and institution type: 2006-07 to 2015-16

	Total			Schools			Colleges
Year	Total	20% most deprived areas	80% least deprived areas	Total	20% most deprived areas	80% least deprived areas	Total	20% most deprived areas	80% least deprived areas
2006-07	37,480	10,780	26,470	24,430	6,320	17,920	13,050	4,460	8,555
2007-08	37,275	10,760	26,330	24,020	6,075	17,770	13,255	4,685	8,560
2008-09	39,000	11,575	27,240	24,460	6,290	18,000	14,540	5,280	9,240
2009-10	37,230	11,495	25,370	23,290	6,340	16,800	13,945	5,155	8,570
2010-11	34,780	11,195	23,290	21,120	6,110	14,890	13,660	5,085	8,400
2011-12	34,390	11,060	23,075	22,135	6,610	15,365	12,255	4,455	7,710
2012-13	35,515	11,725	23,515	23,335	7,230	15,945	12,175	4,495	7,575
2013-14	35,470	12,135	23,100	24,195	7,890	16,140	11,275	4,245	6,960
2014-15	33,180	11,590	21,425	22,530	7,490	14,915	10,650	4,100	6,505
2015-16	31,735	11,015	20,555	21,620	7,235	14,280	10,115	3,780	6,280

Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 5
Deprivation category was identified for over 99% of EMA recipients. For more information please refer to the methodological note. ^[7]
SIMD 2012 has been used for academic years 2013-14. 2014-15, and 2015-16.
SIMD 2009 has been used for all other academic years.
See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

EMA Payments

Total Spend on Payments

19. The EMA payment spend in 2015-16 was £24.8 million, a decrease of £1.7 million in 2014-15. The decrease was driven by fewer school pupils claiming EMA (down £1.2 million from £18.6 million to £17.4 million), while the overall payment spend for college students continued to decrease over the same period (down £0.5 million from £7.9 million to £7.4 million).

20. The proportion of the EMA payment spend for school pupils in 2015-16 was 70%, unchanged from 2014-15 ( Table 4).

Table 4: EMA spend by institution type: 2006-07 to 2015-16

	Academic Year	Number of Recipients	Total (£)	Weekly Payments (£)	Bonus Payments (£)	Average Spend (£)
Total	2006-07*	37,480	32,433,285	25,430,085	7,003,200	678
	2007-08*	37,275	33,340,440	25,977,090	7,363,350	697
	2008-09*	39,000	35,441,160	27,537,960	7,903,200	706
	2009-10*	37,235	33,193,010	26,802,110	6,390,900	720
	2010-11*	34,780	27,177,220	27,177,220	0	781
	2011-12*	34,390	27,613,140	27,613,140	0	803
	2012-13*	35,515	27,817,195	27,817,195	0	783
	2013-14	35,470	28,592,255	28,592,255	0	806
	2014-15	33,180	26,486,790	26,486,790	0	798
	2015-16	31,735	24,759,975	24,759,975	0	780
Schools	2006-07*	24,430	22,923,580	17,975,080	4,948,500	736
	2007-08*	24,020	23,537,100	18,374,400	5,162,700	765
	2008-09*	24,460	24,182,020	18,755,020	5,427,000	767
	2009-10*	23,290	23,477,730	18,295,230	5,182,500	786
	2010-11*	21,120	17,805,960	17,805,960	0	843
	2011-12*	22,135	18,678,480	18,678,480	0	844
	2012-13*	23,335	19,503,310	19,503,310	0	836
	2013-14	24,195	20,374,920	20,374,920	0	842
	2014-15	22,530	18,578,760	18,578,760	0	825
	2015-16	21,620	17,383,110	17,383,110	0	804
Colleges	2006-07*	13,050	9,509,705	7,455,005	2,054,700	571
	2007-08*	13,255	9,803,340	7,602,690	2,200,650	574
	2008-09*	14,540	11,259,140	8,782,940	2,476,200	604
	2009-10*	13,945	9,715,280	8,506,880	1,208,400	610
	2010-11*	13,660	9,371,260	9,371,260	0	686
	2011-12*	12,255	8,934,660	8,934,660	0	729
	2012-13*	12,175	8,313,885	8,313,885	0	683
	2013-14	11,275	8,217,335	8,217,335	0	729
	2014-15	10,650	7,908,030	7,908,030	0	743
	2015-16	10,115	7,376,865	7,376,865	0	729

Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 5. *Years where there were three levels of payment (£10, £20, £30). See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

21. The proportion of the EMA payment spend for each gender was 49% for males and 51% for females. This mirrors the gender balance for the overall number of EMA recipients ( Table 5).

Table 5: EMA payment spend (£) by gender: 2006-07 to 2015-16

Academic Year	Number of Recipients		Total Payments (£)		Weekly Payments (£)		Bonus Payments (£)
	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
2006-07	17,245	20,235	14,847,315	17,585,970	11,663,865	13,766,220	3,183,450	3,819,750
2007-08	16,955	20,320	15,207,780	18,132,660	11,864,430	14,112,660	3,343,350	4,020,000
2008-09	17,870	21,130	16,250,880	19,190,280	12,636,180	14,901,780	3,614,700	4,288,500
2009-10	17,385	19,850	15,527,450	17,664,240	12,545,450	14,255,640	2,982,000	3,408,600
2010-11	16,660	18,115	12,939,870	14,237,350	12,939,870	14,237,350	0	0
2011-12	16,730	17,660	13,327,560	14,285,580	13,327,560	14,285,580	0	0
2012-13	17,400	18,115	13,544,105	14,273,090	13,544,105	14,273,090	0	0
2013-14	17,175	17,885	13,807,980	14,526,005	13,807,980	14,526,005	0	0
2014-15	16,300	16,875	12,864,120	13,620,240	12,864,120	13,620,240	0	0
2015-16	15,500	16,235	12,009,195	12,749,520	12,009,195	12,749,520	0	0

Figures in this table have been rounded to the nearest 5.
See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

Average Payment Spend per Person (excluding bonus payments)

Figure 4 charts the EMA programme’s average annual payment spend per person for the last 5 academic years. Average payment spend was calculated by dividing the total spend on weekly payments by the number of people who received an EMA payment each year. Bonus payments were excluded to allow comparisons with previous years’ data, as bonus payments ceased in 2010-11 ( Table 4).

Figure 4: Average EMA spend per claimant by institution type: 2011-12 to 2015-16

22. Figure 4 shows that the average EMA payment spend per person decreased in 2015-16 (£18 lower than in 2014-15).

23. Table 6 shows the differences in average spend between 2006-07 and 2015-16. The average payment in 2015-16 is £780 per person, showing an increase of 15% (£102) since 2006-07.

Table 6: Average EMA spend by institution type: 2006-07 and 2015-16

	2006-07			2015-16			Change (£)
	Number	Weekly Payments (£)	Average Payment (£)	Number	Weekly Payments (£)	Average Payment (£)
School	24,430	17,975,080	736	21,620	17,383,110	804	68
College	13,050	7,455,005	571	10,115	7,376,865	729	158
Total	37,480	25,430,085	678	31,735	24,759,975	780	102

Numbers in this table have been rounded to the nearest five.
Average spend calculated using rounded numbers. Average was calculated by dividing respective payment total by number of recipients.
See paragraph 3 for time series comparability.

24. One explanation for the increases in average payment is the removal of the £10 and £20 payment levels after 2008-09. Since all students now receive the maximum £30 weekly payment, the average spend per person would be expected to be higher in subsequent academic years.

25. The difference between the average payment for colleges and schools in 2015-16 is the smallest since the EMA programme began.

Impact of January 2016 policy extension

26. In January 2016 the EMA programme was extended, increasing the household income threshold for claimants under both schemes. This raised the threshold for households with one dependent child to £24,421 from £20,351, and households with two or more dependent children to £26,884 from £22,403. It also allowed students on non-advanced part-time college courses to claim EMA.

27. To estimate the number of claimants affected, those who have received no payments up until January 2016, but receive at least one payment before the end of the academic year were analysed. Only claimants aged 16 and above are included in the estimate, this is because it is difficult to directly attribute a 15 year old’s claim after January to be due to the EMA extension, as a claimant must reach school leaving age (typically 16) before they can claim EMA. There may be other reasons a claimant does not receive any payments until this time, including not having adequate attendance or meeting learning agreements, a change in family circumstances, or being unaware of eligibility for EMA.

28. Analysing the data, it is estimated that this EMA extension has impacted approximately 800 school pupils, and 25 college students. These are students who previously would not have been eligible for EMA, but now are. As explained in the previous paragraph, it is likely that these figures are low estimates and some 15 year old students have also been affected, however it is difficult to directly attribute their EMA claim to the EMA extension therefore they have been excluded.