Education and Skills Impact Framework (ESIF) - college provision: contextual summary report 2022

Conclusion and Discussion

• There is a distinct pattern by sex, with returns to qualifications for women higher at SCQF levels 7+. Men generally have higher returns at lower SCQF levels. In general women are more likely to progress to higher levels of education, as such women observed at lower SCQF levels may have lower academic ability than the comparable men at that level.

Alternatively, this pattern may be driven by differences in subject of study by sex, as the methodology does not control for this.

• Unlike other qualifications presented, returns to other undergraduate qualifications use a lower qualification level (SCQF level 6) as a control group. It is unclear how this may affect the marginal returns and therefore the overall ROI of these qualifications. A high proportion of college leavers with qualifications at SCQF level 7+ progress to study at university (58.8%). One possibility is that a selection effect is present, where students with lower earnings potential do not progress to higher levels of study and therefore are captured in the marginal returns.
• It is also worth noting the large disparity in studying other undergraduate qualifications for men and women. While returns to the Exchequer and individual are slightly negative for men on these qualifications, there are large and positive returns to both from women studying at this level. The magnitude of this disparity is by far greater than for any other qualification.
• Lower SCQF level qualifications, particularly SCQF level 5, provide high returns to individual. This is of particular interest as these qualifications are sat by a higher number of individuals from SIMD 0-20 and/or care leaver backgrounds.
• All findings should be considered with mind to the notes made in the consideration section. Results should not be considered as causal, any results presented are in reference to the typical learner present in the data.
• Future research might focus on establishing a deeper understanding of which qualifications are intended to support a student entering the labour market and are therefore appropriate to analyse in this context. This might include an examination of the stated aims of qualifications considered alongside a mapping exercise to establish which qualifications function as de facto entry points to the labour market. This would strengthen the focus of the analysis and ensure that labour market outcomes are driven by qualifications rather than reflecting the characteristics of the students taking those qualifications.