Education and Skills Impact Framework (ESIF) - modern apprenticeships provision: contextual summary report 2022

Conclusion and Discussion

• Earnings and employment returns to individuals are high, although often higher for male MAs than for female MAs. Earnings returns to male level 3 (SCQF 6/7) MAs under 30 are especially high.
• The gender imbalance in some earnings, and hence ROI, is likely to be occupation driven to a large extent, reflecting wider labour market gender wage inequalities. Further research will help to explore this area in more detail.
• Completing an MA qualification is associated with significant, positive reductions in welfare benefit dependency in almost all cases.
• MAs’ are associated with a substantial return on investment, with the highest returns to level 3 MAs, despite the higher cost of undertaking and delivering these. Returns are generally greater for individuals than the Exchequer.
• Return on investment to employers is positive, except for female level 2 MA completers. This reflects the model assumption that employer productivity is proportional to wages. It is important to point out that in many cases employers can benefit from employees where wages are relatively low – for example in the child care and hairdressing and beauty sectors.
• All findings should be considered with mind to the notes made in the consideration section. Results should not be considered as causal, and any results presented are in reference to the typical learner present in the data.
• The ROI model used is sensitive to several key inputs including inflation. While the best available projections of inflation were used during construction, these do not reflect recent rises in the CPI.
• Long-term economic impacts are important but should be considered in the context of non-economic benefits, employer and learner demand, current provision and economic policy priorities.
• Future research might consider aspects of MA data that allow for an improved methodology. The use of prior achievement data for example would alleviate one of the major constraints of the current analysis by providing an indicator of ability, ensuring that labour market outcomes are driven by qualifications rather than partially reflecting the characteristics of the students taking those qualifications.