Education and Skills Impact Framework (ESIF) - university provision: contextual summary report 2022

Benefit to individuals

Introduction

The following section covers the difference in earnings, employment and benefit dependency related to completing a qualification at university. These are calculated by comparing the outcome for individuals who completed thequalification to acontrol group via regression analysis. Inaddition, control variables are used to account for differences in characteristics including academic year of completion, ethnic group, disability status, SIMD quintile and region ofresidence.

For first degree students the control group is students with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a first degree. Students completing postgraduate taught and postgraduate research qualifications are compared to first degree completers due to sample size limitations.

Earnings

Table 8 presents the estimated earnings returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by sex and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Earnings returns are interpreted as the percentage difference in daily earnings of an individual in possession of a given qualification relative to the control group. For example, the results suggest women with a first degree aged 21 or less earn 52.9% more than women with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a first degree.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes.

Key findings:

• Three years after completion, earnings are higher for graduates than the control group for each qualification, sex and age group.
• Returns are generally greater for women than for men.
• The difference between graduates and the control group is generally greater in younger age groups. This may reflect the value of skills and experience that mature students already possess at the beginning of their studies.

Employment

Table 9 presents the estimated employment returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by sex and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Employment returns refer to the percentage point difference inthe proportion of the year that an individual with a given qualification spends in employment relative to ac ontrol group. For example, the results suggest that women aged 21 or less with a first degree spent 3 percentage points more of the year in employment than women with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a first degree.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes. For others, the benefit received was not significantly different from the control group.

Key findings:

• Employment returns for graduates with first degrees or postgraduate taught qualifications are positive across the board.
• Unlike earnings, there are no clear trends for employment returns by age or sex.
• Employment returns for individuals completing postgraduate research qualifications are negative or non-significant. This may imply a smaller labour market for graduates with these qualifications and as such a greater degree of frictional unemployment as compared to first degree qualifiers.

Welfare benefit dependency

Table 10 presents the estimated benefit dependency returns for each qualification, three years after completion (broken down by sex and age at completion), with respect to the control group. Welfare dependency returns are interpreted as thepercentage point difference in the likelihood receiving labour market benefits for an individual with a given qualificationrelative to a control group.For example, the results suggest that women with a first degree aged 21 or less are 3.5 percentage points less likely to receive labour market benefits than women with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a first degree. In this case, a negative figure indicates a more favourable result.

*Some results are unavailable due to small sample sizes.

Key findings:

• All qualifications are associated with significant, positive reductions in benefit dependency.
• First-degree graduates are less likely to receive labour market benefits than individuals with similar characteristics who started but did not complete a first degree.
• Graduates with a postgraduate taught or research qualification are less likely to be in receipt of welfare benefits than graduates at first degree level with similar characteristics.
• Overall, the greatest reduction was for women aged 22-30 with a first degree, who were 6.3 percentage points less likely to receive welfare benefits than comparable women who started but did not complete a first degree.