Emergency Budget Review: equality and fairness - evidence summary

116.0

A range of actions relating to Covid expenditure on vaccinations, test and protect, PPE and additional capacity to drive down additional costs.

The impact on inequalities will continue to be a focus, ensuring uptake rates and activity aimed at reducing vaccine inequalities are not negatively affected.

70.0

Continuing to progress the commitment to fair work and adult social care, with a one-off saving released this financial year as we work with stakeholders on delivery mechanisms for future years . Re-phasing of NCS development from the Financial Memorandum based on recruitment profile and data and digital investment.

The adult social care workforce in Scotland (c. 144,000 people)^[51] is predominantly female (approx. 80%) and approx. 47% work part time. The revised fair work timeline will limit the Scottish Government's ability to further improve the terms and conditions of the adult social care workforce this financial year. The Scottish Government has increased the minimum pay for commissioned services twice in the last year from £9.50 per hour to £10.50 per hour. For a full-time adult social care worker, based on 37.5 hours a week, the increase represents an uplift of over £1,600 over the course of the year.

All reductions in social care capacity and health care capacity have a disproportionate impact on unpaid carers who step in to support those whose needs are not being met. Unpaid carers are predominantly female (around 60% overall and 69% of Carer's Allowance recipients in more intensive caring roles) and disproportionately from low income areas.

65.0

This has been achieved by a reduction in the planned growth rate for the Primary Care Improvement Fund, including a one-off utilisation of reserve funding held by integration authorities. In addition, it includes re-phasing of some elements of the planned enhancements to community optometry and audiology services.

The Primary Care Improvement Fund (PCIF) reduction in the planned growth rate reflects the utilisation of one off reserves for the PCIF. Whilst this will maintain funding, it means planned increases in Community Links and Mental Health Worker (CLW) numbers will not be taken forward this financial year. CLWs support on debt, social isolation and housing, and are crucial to Covid recovery given the long-term impact of Covid on unemployment, mental health and health inequalities.

The reprioritisation of funding for General Dental Services, community optometry and audiology will defer service developments for people with sensory impairment. This will impact on those with low vision and/or hearing loss, predominantly older people, which can contribute to their social exclusion.

63.0

Includes Scottish Trauma Network, Genomics programmes and improvement programmes on older people, clinical audit and education and development.

The majority of savings under this category will result in re-phasing and/or pausing of programmes such as the Scottish Trauma Network, and Genomics. These are not expected to have a direct equality or fairness impacts on existing services.

38.0

This has included continuing to support overall increases to mental health spending as well as delivery of dementia, learning disability and autism services, and cross-cutting trauma work at level of last year's spend. Within the revised budget we will seek to focus on progressing existing commitments including clearing CAMHS and psychological therapies waiting times backlogs.

This will enable us to continue to pursue the commitment to clear CAMHS waiting times backlogs by March 2023.

We know that poor mental health disproportionately affects those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds. Early evidence from the investment we have already made through the recovery and renewal fund suggests that we are reaching those in our most disadvantaged communities. Reductions in additional funding will impact on these communities most heavily while also having impacts on those less disadvantaged backgrounds. We will work with delivery partners to prioritise support for those most in need.

In addition to socio-economic disadvantage, the evidence also demonstrates that women and girls, people with a disability, people from BAME communities and people from LGBT+ communities are more likely to experience poor mental health and less likely to be able to access effective mental health supports. Children and young people have also been disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Reductions in additional funding will impact on progress for these groups although we will continue to maintain a very significant focus on the children and young people's mental health, perinatal mental health and to work with representatives of our BAME and LGBT+ communities to support access to mental health support for those who need it.

21.0

Includes vacancy freezes and tightening of recruitment controls at a central level. This does not apply to NHS staff.

Re-profiling of expenditure: No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

14.0

Reprioritising of work across projects such as Digital prescribing and Microsoft Office updates.

There will be a range of impacts resulting from reprioritisation and scaling back of digital projects.

Digital inclusion is a key focus within health and care and has been demonstrated to bring significant benefits for citizens. These include supporting vulnerable people to remain connected to lifeline services, to connect people to family and friends, to stimulate people into work and housing opportunities and for support with things like social security which are all intrinsically linked to good health and care outcomes. Reductions to funding means all tests of change to support Remote Health Pathways and Care Homes have been stopped, with impacts on health inequalities potentially increasing.

13.0

Re-phasing of commitment to double investment in sport, reprioritisation of health improvement spending.

The planned investment in sport would have supported a range of activity including investment in Active Schools, Disability Sport, investment in local authorities equalities and inclusion plans, community sport hubs, women and girls media summit, walking interventions for older people, work with colleges to enhance the physical activity offer for students from deprived areas, funding to Sports governing bodies for planned improvements to the efficiency and effectiveness of the safeguarding system in sport which protects young people from the risk of abuse, and support for street soccer Scotland to deliver education, mental health provision, poverty relief, employability, social connection, volunteering opportunities and positive support networks for Scotland's most at risk and disadvantaged. We will seek to mitigate these impacts by targeting savings to minimise the impact on inequalities.^[52]

Obesity and type 2 diabetes disproportionately affect those already most at risk from the impact of the cost of living crisis. People from minority ethnic groups and living in our most deprived areas develop type 2 diabetes and the life-changing complications of the condition earlier than the general population, impacting significantly on quality of life and healthy life expectancy. A reduction in funding for weight management services will have an immediate and direct effect on board delivery of these interventions while they still recover their services from COVID-19. Without an uplift in funding, waiting times for patients will likely increase which will impact across the health system but particularly on the groups outlined above. We will mitigate impacts by seeking to maintain funding for weight management services at current levels and protecting spend for children's services.

Alcohol-related hospital stays are 7 times higher in Scotland's poorest communities than the most affluent. Budget savings will mean the work that can be taken forward to develop alcohol treatment targets and reviewing how alcohol brief interventions are delivered across Scotland will be delivered at a slower pace.

1.3

Reduction in grant spend for international Higher Education.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.6

Re-profiling of expenditure across financial years of the youth work fund and reduction in marketing expenditure.

Re-profiling of expenditure: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.8

Reduction in grant expenditure and demand led funding.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.5

The Covid recovery plan recommended the continuation of the Tourism Recovery Programme (TRP), which was funded from consequentials in 2021-22. As no new funding was secured to support this, a reduced TRP was developed, based on £1.5m funding available within Tourism Special Projects. The reduced TRP programme contained 2 elements, support for Destination Net Zero, and a campaign to promote tourism and hospitality as a career choice. These elements will no longer be delivered as planned.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

14.2

Projected saving on the Scottish Government contribution towards the UK-wide ESMCP programme and resource/capital switch.

Reduced contribution, no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

7.0

Reduction in spend based on lower than initially anticipated requirement for demand led services within the Justice system as it continues to recover from backlogs. Does not impact on service availability or delivery.

Reforecasts of existing spend which will have been considered as part of the Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement for the 2022/23 budget. It has either been the case that the spend is now forecast to be less because costs were less certain at the start of the FY or they are demand led lines where demand has been less than forecast. However given there has been no restriction in spend, there are not expected to be any further differential impacts of protected groups from those at identified at the start of the year.

1.2

Re-profiling of expenditure on ENFOR projects to reflect capacity to deliver before the end of the financial year.

Re-profiled spending: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

3.0

Reduced expenditure in Social Security Scotland operational costs.

This reduction is due to routine re-forecasting of costs: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.0

Re-phasing of expenditure on child poverty as actual delivery costs emerge. This is due to programmes with partners developing at a pace that requires less funding than anticipated. This re-profiling of expenditure will be spent in future financial years to achieve child poverty targets.

This relates to realignment of forecast spend, therefore leads to no material impact relative to the Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement for the 22/23 budget.

40.0

Includes £30m for reduction in spend due to construction delays in further education projects, and £10m reduced current year expenditure on digital devices, due to a requirement for more detailed scoping of the project in order to support successful delivery, with capital funding now expected to be utilised later in the project.

Re-profiled spending: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

16.0

In consultation with our Reaching 100 (R100) delivery partner, agreement was made to re-baseline the R100 programme plans. This resulted in an overall increase in R100 contract investment, and a reduction in funding required in respect of the digital connectivity R100 programme in this financial year.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

3.0

Re-profiling of spend across financial years on digital planning projects.

Re-profiled spending: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

14.0

£10m re-profiling of expenditure in City Deals programme into future financial years and £4m on reduction in expenditure within South of Scotland Enterprise on loans/equity investment in business.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

15.0

£5m of savings have arisen as a result of delays in progressing procurement and due diligence in energy investment programmes (including Hydrogen projects) as well £10m of funding that was allocated to Carbon Capture Usage and Storage (CCUS) deployment, but has been delayed due to the lack of market certainty following the UK Government decision on CCUS Cluster sequencing.

The savings will be re-profiled: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

28.5

Reduction in expenditure this financial year on Low Carbon funds including Green Bus Fund and Zero Emission Bus funding due to capacity for uptake in grant funding from recipients caused by number of buses that can be converted (i.e. out of action) at any one time (funding will be re-profiled into future financial years), and on support for active travel due to review of non-committed spend to support the EBR process.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

7.2

Includes changing programmes to reflect challenges on delivery in the current climate and £1.5m of reductions in Low Emission Zone taxi improvements due to lower uptake of grant funding caused by lower taxi driver numbers.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

5.0

In-year spend reduction due to slower delivery of projects reported by Network Rail.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.5

Saving as a result of pausing non-essential maintenance and works this financial year to support the Emergency Budget Review.

The savings will be re-profiled and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.7

Reduction in Woodland Grants expenditure based on current level of applications and grants awarded.

Reforecasting of grants: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.5

Revised forecast of spend on agri-environmental measures due to lower than expected number of applications to be progressed in-year, with applications impacted by on-going worldwide supply chain issues.

Revised forecast: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.1

risen partly due to slippage on a range of science and marine related projects because of inflationary and supply chain factors impacting on procurement and delivery timelines. In addition, IT project spend has been paused subject to the findings of an IT review linked to the ongoing transformation activities.

Slippage of projects (and re-profiling): no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.6

The European Maritime Fisheries Fund programme was fully committed prior to closing on 31 December 2020 but due to the impact of Covid and supply chain issues on claimants the activities underpinning the awards have not been delivered within the specified timeframe which is resulting in a reduced spend this financial year.

Saving identified as a result of reduced spend on activities underpinning the awards: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

10.0

£6m of reduced expenditure in Buildings Standards projects this financial year due to prioritisation of assessment in advance of remediation (which lowers costs in the first instance), and £4m reduced expenditure in More Homes due to global supply chain issues causing delays to the pace of new build delivery.

Although we do not have data on the direct beneficiaries of those households moving into newly delivered affordable homes, we can look at the characteristics of people moving into social rented housing. An analysis was carried out for the Social Tenants in Scotland 2017 statistical publication, based on data from the Scottish Household Survey. This showed that for social rented households in Scotland where an adult had moved into the address within the last 12 months, 70% had a net household income of £20,000 or less, 53% had a female highest income householder, 39% of adults had a disability, 12% of adults were single parents, 18% of adults were unemployed and seeking work, 13% were permanently sick or disabled, and only 24% of households were managing well financially^[53].

19.0

Repayments on regeneration investments (SPRUCE)

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

12.2

Increased income from receipts from sales of shared equity properties

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.2

Forecast increase in commercial income.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.4

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls, reduction in touring fund and National Performing Companies and Scottish Lord-lieutenant activities. Forecast changes across programmes.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.6

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls and workplace/systems development.

Change in accounting treatment has resulted in an underspend on the capital budget. No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

0.8

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls and forecast changes across programmes.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

3.0

EMA is a demand-led programme and fluctuates from year to year - saving is predicated on lower forecast demand. No change to qualification criteria.

Demand led programme, with uptake lower than previously forecast: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.0

Gaelic Resource being replaced with capital.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

20.0

Lower forecast requirement in Further Education student support, other ring fenced budgets such as National Transition Training Fund and additional European Structural Funds income.

Forecasts lower than planned: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.0

Lower cap on STEM Bursary awards. Forecast reduction in applicants.
£800k through the consolidation of programmes within the Initial Teacher Education budget.
£200k resource reduction for SPPA teachers' pension scheme costs.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

16.7

Further resource/capital switches, forecast changes across programmes and savings targets within public bodies.

Changing forecasts, and switches between capital and resource: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

3.0

Delivery of Year 5 of FWDF is underway with applications closed in August. Latest estimates of spend are below the full allocation.

Revised forecasts: No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.3

Forecast changes based on review of spend and project timelines.

Revised forecasts: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

53.0

Reduction in Employability spend. Work to be undertaken with Local Authorities and delivery partners now to learn the lessons from Phase 2 of No One Left Behind and to further strengthen our approach to the design and delivery of employability services.

Best Start Bright Futures (BSBF) committed investment of up to £81m in 2022-23 to increase parental earnings from employment as part of a wider investment to deliver against Scotland's statutory child poverty targets. This represents the first year of funding required to support up to 12,000 parents to access and sustain work and up to 3,000 parents to progress in work over the lifetime of the plan. This £81m reflected:

• existing £8.79m Parental Employability Support Fund,
• existing £20m Long Term Unemployed; and
• up to an additional £53m made available for additional activity to support parents, over and above that already funded through No One Left Behind to support those at risk of long term unemployment or who face labour market challenges.

Reduced additional funding this year will have challenging long term impacts, in the context that over 9000 parents received support from Fair Start Scotland since it began in 2018 and Our No One Left Behind approach (including Parental Employability Support Fund) has supported over 4000 parents over the past 2 years (April 20 to March 22).

Although taking the additional £53m committed to employability as savings will have an impact on the volume of parents we are able to support, it does not necessitate a cut to front line services that were already in place. Our support for parents is delivered under the No One Left Behind approach, which moves away from bespoke programmes for certain user groups with strict eligibility, to an accessible, all-age, person centred service offering that can be accessed by anyone who requires support, with delivery partners required to consider how they can support cohorts we know face additional barriers to entering employment. As the result of this delivery model, young people, those aged 50+, those at risk of long term unemployment, disabled people, those from a minority ethnic backgrounds, parents and other priority groups will continue to benefit from support.

Our published EQIA summary for No One Left Behind^[55] set out a range of actions we will take to continue to improve and develop our service offering for those with protected characteristics. This activity is underpinned by the collection of consistent, comprehensive participant characteristic and outcome data reported from services, in line with recommendations made by the Employability Shared Measurement Framework, which sets out our shared understanding of how we measure the impact of employability services for the people and areas they aim to support.

10.0

Increased income projections including from Scottish National Investment Bank and Registrars of Scotland.

The additional income and efficiency savings for the Scottish National Investment Bank have been delivered in the usual course of business, no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

4.4

Saving through organisational redesign and resource to capital switching within digital. Savings from enhanced recruitment controls across portfolio.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

18.7

2% efficiency savings across public bodies, forecast changes and savings across a number of programmes.

The efficiency savings are primarily a result of reforecasting of various programmes including demand led schemes, and there is no direct equality or fairness impact expected.

5.5

Forecast reduction in demand for RRT funding to replace lost income.

Reforecasts of existing spend which will have been considered as part of the Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement for the 2022/23 budget. It has either been the case that the spend is now forecast to be lower because costs were less certain at the start of the financial year or they are demand led lines where demand has been less than forecast. However given there has been no restriction in spend, there would be no further differential impacts of protected groups from those at identified at the start of the year.

3.6

Forecast changes across programmes based on demand.

Reforecasts of spend on demand led programmes: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

37.6

Forecast reduction in patronage numbers and fare levels. Risk based forecasting approach. No impact on eligibility.

Forecast reduction in patronage numbers due to slower uptake than expected. No impact on eligibility for the scheme. No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

5.0

Forecast additional EU funding.

Increased income: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

1.0

Increased timber income projections.

Increased income: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

4.0

Reduced resource investment offset by higher capital investment

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

12.2

Resource to capital switching, higher interest income within Scottish Water, reduced staff spend and forecast changes.

Higher income, forecast changes and other measures: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

8.4

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls.

No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

3.5

Legacy EU Scottish Rural Development Programme one-off modification forecast change.

Changes in forecasts: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

2.2

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls and forecast changes within research programmes.

Changes in forecasts: no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

33.0

UKG ring-fenced funds, to be returned to RAI in future years.

Deferral of UK Government ring-fenced funds, to be returned in future years, with no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

14.2

Forecast changes across programmes based on demand.

Result of revised forecasting, reflecting changes in demand: No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

82.0

Utilisation of funding provided by the UKG as part of cost of living announcements in spring 2022.

No direct equality/fairness impact, as represents additional income.

20.0

Savings from enhanced recruitment controls.

The savings are the results of improved forecasting and so no expected impact on service levels as a result. No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

6.1

Forecast changes across programmes based on demand and re-phasing as well as reductions in staff training, overtime and travel.

Linked to re-profiling and updated forecasting of spend, and therefore no material impact compared to the EFSBS for the 22/23 budget.

63.0

Income into the Scottish Consolidated Fund for further ScotWind revenues of up to £56m in 2022-23 from the ScotWind Clearing Process.

£7m interest income from short term investment of ScotWind funds. To be returned to NZET in future years.

Increased in-year funding generated by the ScotWind clearing process. Funding will be reinstated in future years and used, as planned, to invest in addressing the climate and biodiversity crises. No direct equality or fairness impacts identified.

120.0

Capital reprioritisation to be identified in multiple portfolios- capital spend so far funded via natural re-profiling.

Results from routine re-profiling, and no direct equality or fairness impacts identified.