Ending HIV Transmission in Scotland by 2030: HIV Transmission Elimination Delivery Plan 2023-26

Monitoring and Evaluation

As part of this plan, we must be able to provide evidence of progress towards elimination. Public Health Scotland, as a deliverable for 2023-24, will develop a monitoring and evaluation plan to track progress against HIV transmission elimination goals. The plan will recognise the need for enhanced surveillance to determine if an individual HIV transmission occurred in Scotland, and the benefits of identifying and using ‘recent infection’ (within the preceding 3-4 months) rather than ‘annual incidence’ as a marker of progress, because of the improved accuracy and reliability of techniques such as avidity testing. It is also recognised that our efforts must include actions to reduce the number of Scottish residents acquiring HIV outwith Scotland and this should be monitored and reported upon.

Even after we reach the target of eliminating new transmissions within Scotland, there will remain a transmission risk from those entering from countries where HIV rates are high. Transmission risks overseas may not only be from sexual transmission or injecting drug use but also from unsafe blood products. All blood products in the UK have been screened for HIV since 1985.

Consideration will need to be given to how we monitor imported infections and ensure that we remain transmission free once we have achieved transmission elimination.

Currently available data includes the number of tests taken in sexual health services and the number of new diagnoses and comprehensive detail on people attending for care and treatment. A Data Manual for HIV data collection has been drafted by PHS with input from HIV Clinical Leads.

Monitoring and Evaluation Actions

These actions are key to the delivery of HIVTE however they do not directly relate to HiTEOG recommendations and therefore do not hold HiTEOG recommendation numbers.

Action 32: PHS to develop a monitoring and evaluation plan to support progress towards HIV transmission elimination and address identified surveillance gaps through developing existing or establishing new approaches/systems

Delivery by: PHS

Timeline: Short term Commence: December 2023 Complete : March 2024 (with gaps addressed thereafter)

Detail: Once the data monitoring plan is developed, identified gaps in surveillance should be addressed. This may need input from NHS Boards on the data they collect. Time taken to implement will be dependent on the content of the recommendations.

Action 33: Develop and implement a communication and reporting plan to disseminate data and intelligence to drive decisions for action at both national and local level.

Delivery by: PHS

Timeline: Short term Commence: January 2024 Complete: March 2025

Detail: To complement the data and monitoring plan, a communications and reporting plan should be developed to outline how collected data are reported to allow changes to be made as required at both national and local level.