Independent Review of Qualifications and Assessment - SG response: equality impact assessment

Part 2: Key Findings by Protected Characteristic

Who will the policies affect?

The actions which Scottish Government will take forward in response to the IRQA will primarily impact young people aged 15-18 although there will be some implications for adult learners studying typically Senior Phase qualifications in college. There will also be implications for teachers and college teaching staff. With regards to the teaching profession further detailed work will be undertaken with the teaching professional associations and unions as part of the development of this suite of policies. This EQIA has largely focussed on the potential impacts on young people but has considered impact on teachers where data has been available. The following sections outline key impacts by protected characteristic.

Protected Characteristic: Age

Learners: The SDA and the proposals within the SDA are focussed on Senior Phase learners which are predominantly young people aged 15-18 in school, college and in other educational settings, for example, home educated learners. The final report of the IRQA states that the SDA should be available to learners of all ages at college and that individuals who have left school before completing the Diploma, should be able to complete it at college.

In 2023 there were 313,061 secondary school pupils and 7,742 pupils in special schools^[3]. Scotland's population is projected to age over the next 30 years and the number of children is projected to fall by nearly a fifth^[4]. This will have consequential impacts on the school and college population.

Learner outcomes: The proportion of adults aged 16-64 with low or no qualifications at SCQF Level 4 or below varies by age. It is higher in the younger (16-24) and older (50-64) age groups than the other age groups. Since the series began in 2007 there has been a decrease across all age groups, the biggest of which has been for 50-64 year olds (down from 25.4 per cent in 2007 to 13.0 per cent in 2020)^[5]. The Skills Development Scotland Annual Participation Measure (APS) reports on the economic and employment activity of 16-19 year olds in Scotland. Participation in education, training or employment has increased every year between 2019 and 2023. In 2023 94.3% of 16-19 year olds were participating in education, employment, or training.^[6]

Teachers and lecturers: The average (mean) age of school teachers was 41 in 2023, compared to 42 in 2013. The age profile of teachers has changed over the past 10 years. There is no longer a peak at age 55-60 and instead the age profile shows more teachers in their twenties, thirties and forties than previously. In 2023, half of teachers were aged between 28 and 44.^[7]

Impacts on the grounds of Age protected characteristic

In terms of positive outcomes the changes outlined in the Scottish Government response have the potential to improve outcomes for young people by improving the Senior Phase experience and enabling more learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning.

No negative equalities issues in respect to age have been identified in respect to the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response.

Additionally, provided the leaving certificate was made available to older learners within a college setting then no specific equalities issues have been identified in respect of age for the longer-term ambition to introduce a leaving certificate.

Conclusions: Age

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, provided the leaving certificate is made available to older learners within a college setting then no negative equalities issues have been identified in respect of age. In terms of positive impacts, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for young people.

Further engagement will be undertaken with children and young people and representative organisations throughout the policy development process.

Protected characteristic: Disability

Learners: In 2023, 21,956 pupils were declared or assessed disabled, 14,059 were male and 7,447 were female^[8].

Outcomes: School leavers in 2022-23 with an Additional Support Need (ASN) were less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.7 per cent) than leavers without a recorded ASN (97.4 per cent). This result is consistent with previous years.

Leavers in 2022-23 who were declared or assessed disabled were also less likely to be in a positive initial destination (93.2 per cent) than leavers who were not (96.0 per cent).

The proportion of adults aged 16-64 with few or no qualifications at SCQF level 4 or below, is over twice as high for those with a disability (19.1 per cent) than those who are not disabled (7.2 per cent)^[9]. At a UK level according to data by ONS disabled people are almost three times as likely to have no qualifications (13.3%) than non- disabled people (4.6%)^[10]. Across all age groups (21 to 64 years), disabled people were less likely to have obtained a degree and more likely to have no qualifications than non-disabled people.

Teachers: This EQIA was not able to source data on the number of teachers with a disability.

Impacts on the grounds of Disability protected characteristic:

The Scottish Diploma of Achievement as a whole

Stakeholders with whom we spoke were on the whole supportive of the proposals and felt that the SDA would be positive for learners with disabilities as well as learners with additional support needs. Key benefits cited by stakeholders included:

• Greater choice, flexibility and opportunity to personalise the Senior Phase.
• The diversification of assessment methods would support the aspiration of achievement for all.
• Modularisation would support the aspiration of achievement for all.
• The Diploma model would enable a Senior Phase much more closely aligned with the original aims of Curriculum for Excellence^[11].

Stakeholders also broadly agreed with the statement that the Diploma aligns with one of the recommendations in the Morgan Review, Support for Learning: All our children and all their potential (2020) ^[12] which called for, greater recognition of wider achievement beyond national qualifications.

"...the [qualifications] system should be set up to recognise the particular achievements of children and young people which goes beyond SQA qualifications....Children and young people for whom exam-based qualifications are not aligned to their learning needs and potential are not failures. The Review evidence is consistent that there must be recognition of individual achievement in Learning for Life. This means creating equally valued alternative pathways and ways of measuring individual progress."^[13]

However, this support in principle to the SDA was caveated as many stakeholders pointed out that the SDA in the final report is at a relatively high level and that further detail would be needed to be able to determine potential impact. Stakeholders were clear that further detailed work with disability organisations is needed to help design and develop the details of the proposals if Scottish Government agreed to accept this recommendation.

Changes to assessment methods

A key proposal within the SDA is to diversify assessment methods and reduce reliance on external examinations. The IRQA also recommends removal of external examinations up to SCQF Level 5.

In preparing this EQIA we have found some evidence to suggest that teacher assessment may be more liable to bias than external examinations.

Following the cancellation of examinations in England in 2021 Ofqual undertook a literature review of existing research on bias in teacher assessment. This research concluded that "bias against pupils with special educational needs (or in favour of those without) was a common finding" within the studies which Ofqual examined^[14].

"All judgements that we make as humans are susceptible to biases of this sort, without us necessarily even being aware of them. This includes the judgements that teachers make when they assess students… there is more opportunity for bias to creep in to teacher-based results than test-based results… the literature does tell us that there is a risk of bias in teacher assessment and that is why it is so important that arrangements are in place this year to mitigate this risk."^[15]

Master George and Martinez (2010)^[16] conducted studies in southwest America to try to identify whether there were systemic biases for or against learners with disabilities. They concluded that although knowledge of a pupil's disability did not on average increase or decrease scores, they did observe that there was "more variability in marking and less consistency".

Other studies considered as part of this EQIA have concluded that the evidence on teacher assessment and bias is ambiguous. "The literature on teacher assessment is vast, often controversial and sometimes contradictory." Johnson S notes, "Given the importance of the issue, several reviews have confirmed that astonishingly few reports of investigations into the reliability of teacher assessment are to be found in the literature..." (Johnson, S 2013) ^[17]. There are also studies which have found no evidence of bias, Baird 1998^[18]. The evidence on this issue is not conclusive.

On the whole, stakeholders with whom we spoke welcomed the proposal to increase the range of assessment methods in the Senior Phase. Many stakeholders stated that a diversification of assessment methods would ensure that more children and young people were able to demonstrate achievement including those with additional support needs and or a disability. However, many stakeholders with whom we spoke, felt that a mixed assessment approach – neither fully internal nor fully external - would be the most equitable and that mitigating measures would need to be put in place to minimise the risk of teacher bias.

Conclusions: Disability

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, ostensibly a leaving certificate is likely to bring benefits to disabled learners. Further detailed work with disability organisations will be undertaken to help design and develop the details of the proposals to ensure opportunities to advance equality for disabled learners are taken.

The intention to diversify assessment methods has been considered further. Although there is some evidence that teacher-based assessment may be more susceptible to bias than other forms of assessment, the evidence around this is not conclusive. We will ensure that care is taken in the design and implementation of changes to assessment methods to include a robust consideration of ways to minimise the possibility of teacher bias. This will include investigation and implementation of appropriate mitigating actions including moderation processes, supported collaboration between teachers and high-quality professional learning.

Teacher based assessment is already part of our current Senior Phase system. Coursework and practical assessments already form an important part of overall assessment in most subjects and courses. Teacher based assessment is also commonly used in primary school and in the Broad General Education (BGE) and in many other jurisdictions in upper secondary. Diversifying assessment methods was a recommendation in the 2021 OECD paper entitled Upper-secondary education student assessment in Scotland: A comparative perspective^[19].

There will be further engagement with disability organisations during the policy development process to help ensure that changes capitalise on the opportunity to improve the Senior Phase experience for learners with additional support needs and disabilities and crucially does not create unintentional disadvantage.

Protected characteristic: Sex

Learners: Female pupils continue to be more likely to enter positive destinations than male pupils: 96.4 per cent of female school leavers were in a positive initial destination in 2022-23, compared to 95.3 per cent of male leavers. This result is consistent with previous years^[20].

Teachers: In 2022, 65 per cent of secondary school teachers were women^[21]. In both the primary and secondary sectors the proportion of teachers who were female fell at each level of seniority. Therefore, reform to school age education that impacts staffing levels or workload could disproportionately affect women.

Impacts on the grounds of Sex protected characteristic: This section outlines views we have heard which indicate a differential impact based on sex.

Changes to assessment methods

A key proposal within the SDA is to diversify assessment methods and reduce reliance on external examinations. The Review also recommends removal of external examinations up to SCQF Level 5. We have found some evidence that this policy may impact on boys and girls in different ways. For example, there is some research which indicates that boys and girls perform differently under high and low stake situations. In a study of students in Barcelona in Spain, Azmat et all (2015)^[22] found that boys and girls react and perform differently in high stakes exam situations, "girls and boys react differently to increases in exam pressure, as defined by the level of the stakes at hand." In particular, although girls outperform boys in all school tests, girls do relatively better on tests with low stakes, but this difference is reduced and even disappears when the stakes increase.

Another way in which changing assessment methods could differentially impact boys and girls is through the possibility for teacher bias. Ofqual's review of existing literature on teacher bias in assessment found "some evidence of teacher bias in favour of girls (or against boys)"^[23].

An example is, Marcenaro-Gutierrez & Vignoles (2015)^[24]. They studied a sample of 3,000 Spanish primary and secondary school pupils in Spain. They found that female students in maths were overrated whilst male pupils were under rated relative to their exam scores. By contrast, Spear (1984)^[25] found that science teachers graded scripts higher where they believed them to have been written by male students.

Urhahne D & Wijnia quoting Bennett et al 1993^[26] note that the behaviour of boys and girls may impact teacher perceptions. "Student gender directly affected teacher judgments of students' academic skill through their perceptions of students' behaviour. Boys, who were perceived as behaving less satisfactorily than girls, received lower teacher ratings."

However, there are also studies that have found no effect on gender. For example, Baird (1998)^[27] found that there was no benefit to blind marking of A-levels as there was "no evidence of gender bias in teacher marking." Similarly, Dhillon (2005)^[28] found that teacher estimates of A level grades "demonstrated an unprecedented degree of accuracy." There does not therefore appear to be conclusive evidence.

Stakeholder Comments

Zero Tolerance Scotland is an organisation working to end men's violence against women by promoting gender equality and challenging attitudes that normalise violence and abuse. Zero Tolerance Scotland in their response to the IRQA highlighted the need for Scottish Government to take an intersectional approach to Education Reform to ensure that no learners "fall between the cracks of policies which are seen as distinct when the lived reality is intersectional." (Zero Tolerance Scotland). In their evidence to us they highlighted the following additional points:

• Fear of violence impacts girls' ability to participate fully in education. Girls living in deprived areas are more likely to say that fear of sexual harassment holds them back at school.
• One in four female secondary school teachers had been sexually harassed or abused over the previous 12 months.
• Girls and young women of colour are more likely than white girls to believe that the Covid-19 pandemic has negatively impacted their education.
• 1 in 5 girls believe that gender stereotypes hold them back in education; but this rises to 2 in 5 for LGBTQ+ girls.
• More girls than boys attain at SCQF Level 5 and above, and more young men leave education without any qualifications.
• Gendered norms and expectations impact on boys' motivation and desire to learn. In many contexts, school activities and certain subjects are considered at odds with expressions of masculinity, making education unpopular with boys.

Teaching Unions and Professional Associations noted concern around the potential increase in workload associated with the SDA and given that women make up 65 per cent of the teaching workforce, they will be disproportionally impacted. Further consideration will also be given to the fact that more female than male teachers work part time.

Conclusions: Sex

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, ostensibly a leaving certificate has the potential to bring benefits all young people, regardless of gender.

Further work is needed to explore the potential workload impact and the potential disproportionate impact on females who make up the majority of the teaching workforce. We will therefore ensure that there is close engagement with the professional associations and unions throughout the policy development process and into implementation.

In terms of the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response, the issue of diversifying assessment methods has been considered further.

We have identified some research which indicates that there may be a differential impact on boys and girls depending on the assessment type used. With some research suggesting that boys perform better in external high stakes exams and girls performing better in internal assessment. Whilst this research is not conclusive if there are gender differences depending on assessment type, then to ensure that all young people regardless of gender have equal opportunity to demonstrate their learning, a system of assessment that incorporates both internal and external assessment is likely to be the fairest overall, as opposed to a system that relies wholly on either internal or external assessment methods.

With regard to the issue of teacher bias and internal assessment methods we will ensure that care is taken in the design and implementation of changes to assessment methods to include a robust consideration of ways to minimise the possibility of teacher bias. This will include investigation and implementation of appropriate mitigating actions including moderation processes, supported collaboration between teachers and high-quality professional learning.

Further engagement with the Gender Equality Taskforce in Education and Learning will be undertaken during the policy development process to ensure that changes are designed and delivered in in a way which will support gender equality in education.

Protected characteristic: Pregnancy and Maternity

Learners: There is currently no published data on learners in the Senior Phase who are pregnant or have very young children. We expect the numbers to be small. In 2020 there were 3,300 teenage pregnancies 69% of those were to those ages 18 or 19 at conception, under 18s accounted for 31% and under 16s for 5%^[29].

Despite the numbers being small, many research studies show that the impact of teenage pregnancy can have a large and profound impact on educational outcomes. Research by Growing up in Scotland which looked at young mothers under 20 noted that young mothers tend to be less well-educated than older mothers when their first child is born. Although young mothers do resume their education at a later stage, they remain less well educated compared to older mothers who have continued to upgrade their qualifications at a higher rate^[30].

There is also a strong correlation between deprivation and teenage pregnancy, with typically higher rates in areas of higher social deprivation^[31]. However, across all deprivation levels, teenage pregnancy rates have decreased considerably in recent years. For example, in the last decade the rate of pregnancy per 1,000 for under 20s living in the most deprived areas decreased from 75.4 in 2011 to 44.9 in 2020. Meanwhile, the rate per 1,000 fell from 18.5 to 9 for those living in the least deprived areas^[32].

Teachers: We were not able to source data on the number of teachers affected by pregnancy/maternity.

Stakeholder Comments

There were no specific comments from stakeholders on this protected characteristic in relation to the proposals.

Conclusions: Pregnancy/maternity

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it. However, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for learners with this protected characteristic.

No negative equalities issues in respect to pregnancy/maternity have been identified that relate to the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response. However, in relation to diversifying assessment methods, mitigating measures in relation to minimising teacher bias, outlined elsewhere in this EQIA could be relevant in terms of ensuring equality for all learners including those with this protected characteristic.

In terms of positive impacts, as stated above, the aim of these policies is to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and ensure that all learners including those with this protected characteristic are able to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of pregnancy/maternity is built into the policy development process.

Protected characteristic: Gender Reassignment

Learners: There is very limited evidence on the experiences of transgender learners in the Senior Phase. Research from the Scottish Funding Council in 2022 notes that in 2020-21 there was 3,265 learners enrolled in higher or further education courses of 160 hours plus in duration, who identified as having a gender identity different to that assigned at birth^[33]. We have not been able to source more recent figures.

Other sources of evidence in respect of transgender learners include an LGBT Youth Scotland survey from 2017^[34] which reported that 53% of transgender respondents rated their experience of school as 'bad' and that 96% of transgender respondents experienced homophobic or transphobic bullying during their time in education. Further that "participants reported experiencing high levels of barriers to their learning or work, with 86% (n=135) of survey respondents experiencing barriers in direct relation to their trans status or gender diverse identity. The biggest challenge concerned peer relationships with colleagues and fellow students, with many experiencing ignorance and hostility. There were also numerous issues around the provision of gender-neutral facilities and navigating administrative processes. Research participants often had very low expectations, and many felt unsafe or unwelcome within classroom and wider campus environments"

Teachers: We were not able to source figures on the number of teachers with this protected characteristic.

Impacts on the grounds of Gender Reassignment protected characteristic: This section outlines views we have heard which indicate a differential impact based on gender reassignment.

Changes to assessment methods

Some stakeholders with whom we spoke were concerned about the possibility that transgender learners could be subject to teacher bias with a move to more teacher-based assessment. We did not identify any research studies of teacher bias in respect to this characteristic. However, we will ensure that care is taken in the design and implementation of changes to assessment methods to include a robust consideration of ways to minimise the possibility of teacher bias. This will include investigation and implementation of appropriate mitigating actions including moderation processes, supported collaboration between teachers and high-quality professional learning.

Stakeholder Comments

There were no specific comments from stakeholders on this protected characteristic in relation to the proposals aside from comments regarding the possibility of bias from teacher assessment. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of gender reassignment is built into the policy development process.

Conclusions: Gender reassignment

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for learners with this protected characteristic.

No negative equalities issues in respect to gender reassignment have been identified that relate to the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response. However, in relation to diversifying assessment methods, mitigating measures in relation to minimising teacher bias, outlined elsewhere in this EQIA could be relevant in terms of ensuring equality for all learners including those with this protected characteristic.

In terms of positive impacts, as stated above, the aim of these policies is to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and ensure that all learners including those with this protected characteristic are able to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of gender reassignment is built into the policy development process.

Protected characteristic: Sexual Orientation

Learners: The Scottish Government does not have information available on sexual orientation of pupils. Data is collected on the sexual orientation of full-time, first-degree students. In 2021-22 69% of entrants identified as heterosexual; 10% identified as lesbian, gay or bisexual and 20% refused to answer, said 'other' or 'unknown'^[35].

Outcomes and experiences: In terms of the experiences of LGBT+ learners a report by Stonewall^[36] states that 42% of LGBT+ school pupils (UK wide) have been bullied in the past year, double the number of non-LGBT+ pupils (21%) and that half of LGBT pupils hear homophobic slurs 'frequently' or 'often' at school. Stonewall states that in general students intend to be more open about their sexual orientation and gender identity in higher education, with overall levels of openness increasing from 64% at school to an expected 82% at university or college.

In research undertaken by the Equality Network^[37] many respondents highlighted a problem with Scotland's schools not adequately addressing the needs of LGBT+ pupils. 18% reported discrimination or less good treatment in Scotland's education system.

Teachers: We were not able to source figures on the number of teachers with this protected characteristic but we will explore this issue as part of the next iteration of this EQIA.

Impacts on the grounds of Sexual Orientation protected characteristic

We have not identified any specific issues which would impact on learners depending on their sexual orientation so far. Although not raised by stakeholders with whom we spoke, the issue of teacher bias in respect of sexual orientation could potentially be an issue. We did not identify any studies or secondary research of teacher bias in respect to this characteristic. However, we will ensure that care is taken in the design and implementation of changes to assessment methods to include a robust consideration of ways to minimise the possibility of teacher bias. This will include investigation and implementation of appropriate mitigating actions including moderation processes, supported collaboration between teachers and high-quality professional learning.

Stakeholder Comments

There were no specific comments from stakeholders on this protected characteristic in relation to the proposals. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of sexual orientation is built into the policy development process.

Conclusions: Sexual orientation

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for learners with this protected characteristic.

No negative equalities issues in respect to sexual orientation have been identified that relate to the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response. However, in relation to diversifying assessment methods, mitigating measures in relation to minimising teacher bias, outlined elsewhere in this EQIA could be relevant in terms of ensuring equality for all learners including those with this protected characteristic.

In terms of positive impacts, as stated above, the aim of these policies is to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and ensure that all learners including those with this protected characteristic are able to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of sexual orientation is built into the policy development process.

Protected Characteristic: Race

In the Equality Act (2010) race can mean colour or nationality. It can also mean ethnic or national origins, which may not be the same as current nationality.

Learners: In 2023, 79 per cent of pupils were recorded as being white Scottish or white other British. The largest other ethnic backgrounds include White - Other (3.7%), White - Polish (2.4%), and Mixed (1.8%). The number of White - Gypsy/Traveller pupils has risen over the last five years with 737 pupils in 2011 to 1,456 in 2023, although this could be due to improved recording^[38].

Outcomes and experiences: A report by the Coalition for Racial Equality for the Scottish Government, notes that Black and Minority ethnic (BME) learners experience "variable outcomes in relation to education, with significant differences between ethnic groups in terms of attainment and post-school destinations"^[39]

This report further notes that:

• Gypsy/Traveller educational outcomes are among the worst with fewer qualifications gained, lower attendance rates, higher exclusion rates and fewer individuals progressing to positive destinations.
• High educational attainment in minority ethnic groups is coupled with a range of negative factors and experiences related to racism and structural discrimination which impact their experience in education, particularly within schools.
• High educational attainment does not translate to labour market advantage for minority ethnic people.

The Life Chance of Young People in Scotland report^[40] (2017) also states that:

• BME people with good qualifications face greater barriers to finding work which matches their qualifications compared with the white majority ethnic population.
• Compared with white young adults, BME young adults have lower rates of employment.
• Pupils from most BME groups have higher educational attainment than pupils from white groups, with BME young people having a higher rate of participation in education, training, and employment than the national average.
• BME young people are more likely to continue in education, particularly higher education, compared to their white counterparts.

Statistics from the Scottish Government show that the proportion of adults aged 16-64 with few or no qualifications at SCQF Level 4 or below, was 9.7% across the population. The proportion with low or no qualifications is higher amongst the white population aged 16-64 (9.7%) compared with the minority ethnic population aged 16-64 (9.0%)^[41]. However, it is worth noting that there are significant variations, with some ethnic minority learners attaining well above the national average, whilst other groups of learners, for example Gypsy / Traveller learners, perform less well, this highlights the importance of disaggregating data by ethnic group.

In addition, in its response to Phase Three of the Review the Coalition for Racial Equality and Rights (CRER) makes the point that high attainment by Black and Ethnic Minority learners does not prove that ethnic minority learners are not discriminated against: "There is a tendency to assume that high attainment means that a learner is 'doing well' at school, potentially masking a range of problems with racism, mental health and wellbeing, adverse childhood experiences and other issues requiring support."^[42]

Unemployment and underemployment are relatively high for BME groups, including for BME graduates. The same CRER analysis found BME graduates in Scotland are less likely to go into full time employment and are up to three times more likely to be unemployed compared to white graduates.

Learners from communities in Scotland who are currently mobile or have a tradition of mobility including Gypsy/Traveller communities, Showpeople and European Roma can face additional barriers to learning and education. A study of Gypsy Traveller children in primary schools in Glasgow and London found that they experienced wide ranging forms of racism and prejudice in school and in the local community (Deuchar and Bhopal, 2013)^[43]

Teachers: As the number of BME pupils in Scotland's schools has increased, minority ethnic teachers have remained significantly underrepresented in Scotland's schools. Minority ethnic teachers are less represented in promoted posts compared to the profession as a whole, with fewer than 1% of teachers in promoted posts identifying as being from a minority ethnic background^[44]. In September 2023, just 2% of schoolteachers recorded a minority ethnic background. The majority were Scottish white (68%)^[45].

Impacts on the grounds of Race protected characteristic: This section outlines views we have heard which indicate a differential impact based on race.

Changes to assessment methods

A key proposal within the SDA is a reduction in external examinations in the Senior Phase and an increase in internal assessment including teacher-based assessment. The IRQA also recommends removal of external examination up to SCQF Level 5. As discussed above, there is some evidence which suggests that teacher-based assessment may be more liable to bias than external assessment.

Ofqual's 2021 research found evidence that "ethnicity bias was mixed – there were findings of bias against as well as in favour of each minority group (relative to the majority group) as well as findings of no bias."^[46]

In its Phase Three response to the Review CRER stated: "Teacher involvement in the setting of predicted grades in Scotland during the Coronavirus pandemic provides some insight into this. Learners from every ethnic group, on average, experienced over-estimated grades compared with actual performance within their group in previous years. With the exception of African, Caribbean and Black young people, however, every BME group of learners had lower levels of over-estimation than peers from white ethnic groups." (CRER)

Comments on this were also received from the Education Leadership and Professional Learning subgroup of the Scottish Government's Race Equality and Anti-Racism in Education Programme, "For a better-balanced assessment system, there needs to be higher levels of racial literacy in the education workforce. This is crucial to minimise the impact of racial bias on grades and to enable the development of measures (such as blind-marking) to minimise the impact of bias. For that to happen, more time and resource is required to educators and leaders to engage in mandatory, ongoing and high-quality professional learning." (Education Leadership and Professional Learning subgroup of the Scottish Government's Race Equality and Anti-Racism in Education Programme.)

A system wholly reliant on teacher-based assessment was of much greater concern to stakeholders than a system partially based on teacher assessment. It was felt that a system based only on teacher assessment would increase the risk of teacher bias and therefore increase the risk of black and minority ethnic learners being disadvantaged. Many stakeholders thought that some form of external assessment was a necessary safeguard against bias. Stakeholders also felt that robust mitigations would need to be put in place to minimise the risk of teacher bias.

The Personal Pathway

The Personal Pathway element attracted significant concern during the IRQA. Since the Phase Two public consultation was issued, and in response to feedback during Phase Three of the IRQA, the Personal Pathway section in the SDA was amended. The focus of the Personal Pathway component in the final report makes clear that the purpose is not on the number of experiences the learner has undertaken but on what an individual has learnt through an experience i.e., the reflection. The final report also states that all learners have an "entitlement to experiences in the Personal Pathway."^[47]

Many stakeholders with whom we spoke welcomed this change of focus and indicated that this alleviated some of their concerns around the Personal Pathway element. For example, CRER stated "The changes to the Personal Pathway proposals go some way towards mitigating our concerns regarding potential unequal access to relevant experiences for Black and minority ethnic learners." (CRER)

However, in our post publication engagement we found that stakeholders still feel that there may be equalities issues associated with the Personal Pathway as they point out some learners/pupils will have access to a greater number of activities to reflect upon, than other learners. In addition, there were concerns that bias and value judgements on certain activities could create inequality.

CRER point out that Black and Minority Ethnic learners are more than twice as likely to experience poverty as a white Scottish/British learner. Higher poverty rates for Black and Minority Ethnic children have been persistent for many years in Scotland^[48].

"… the parents of Black and minority ethnic learners are more likely to be working in occupations with long or non-standard hours, making the practicalities of getting to and from clubs and activities more difficult. Slightly lower levels of car or van availability in comparison to white communities (22% of people in BME groups compared to 26% of people in white groups had a car or van available at the time of the last Census). (CRER)

Coalition for Racial Equality and Rights (CRER) said:

"A range of known barriers impact Black and Minority Ethnic learners' access to opportunities to gain awards and achievements outside of school. Racism within mainstream services targeted at young people is one such barrier... Black and Minority Ethnic households are twice as likely to experience poverty... Activities with a cost, including basic costs such as travel, may be inaccessible for many. Allied to this, the parents of Black and Minority Ethnic learners are more likely to be working in occupations with long or non-standard hours, making the practicalities of getting to and from clubs and activities more difficult."

Stakeholders with whom we spoke repeatedly emphasised that delivering upon the "entitlements" aspect of the Personal Pathway would be critical to ensuring that all children and young people benefited equally from the opportunities which the SDA presented. However, stakeholders also stressed the current challenging economic context and questioned whether resource would be available to deliver the "entitlements" aspect. Allied to this point, a number of stakeholders also indicated that the word "right" should be used instead of "entitlement", should the SDA be accepted.

The Scottish Government has committed to exploring how best to recognise wider achievement but has not accepted the recommendation to immediately introduce the Personal Pathway proposal principally due to concerns around equality. The Scottish Government response to the IRQA notes that:

Education is not just about the qualifications a young person achieves. The enduring aim of Curriculum for Excellence is that all young people develop the 'four capacities' to become: successful learners; confident individuals; responsible citizens; and effective contributors. Young people in Scotland already have the opportunity to undertake a wealth of activity that builds their skills and confidence, and this breadth of achievement should rightly be recognised and celebrated. We are also committed to continuing to explore how best to recognise such achievement with a range of stakeholders including young people. However, before considering whether or not wider achievement could ultimately be included as part of any leaving certificate, we will need to work through significant concerns raised by a wide range of stakeholders as outlined in this EQIA, that doing so risks entrenching and exacerbating social inequity.

Conclusions: Race

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it. However, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for learners with this protected characteristic.

With regard to the decision to diversify assessment methods we have identified concerns which are explored in further detail. Concern was raised by some stakeholders around the proposal to increase the amount of teacher-based assessment in the Senior Phase, due to concern about bias impacting BAME learners. Concern from stakeholders was strongest in respect to a system based only on teacher-based assessment. Most stakeholders felt that some form of external assessment was needed in addition to strong mitigation measures against teacher bias. This is in line with the Scottish Government response which proposes a diversification of assessment methods but retention of some form of external examination.

We will ensure that care is taken in the design and implementation of changes to assessment methods to include a robust consideration of ways to minimise the possibility of teacher bias. This will include investigation and implementation of appropriate mitigating actions including moderation processes, supported collaboration between teachers and high-quality professional learning.

In terms of positive impacts, as stated above, the aim of these policies is to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and ensure that all learners including those with this protected characteristic are able to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning.

Engagement with representative organisation such as CRER, BEMIS (the national Ethnic Minorities Ethnic Minorities led umbrella body supporting the development of the Ethnic Minorities Voluntary Sector in Scotland and the communities that this sector represents) and those representing Gypsy Traveller and Roma communities will be undertaken throughout the policy development process to identify any other potential opportunities to advance equality of opportunity and crucially to ensure that changes do not unintentionally create further disadvantage.

Protected Characteristic: Religion or Belief

Secondary Data: The only statistics on religion in the education sector relate to the denomination of schools. No information is collected on the religion of pupils or teachers. In 2023, 124,282 pupils were based at a Roman Catholic school compared to 580,927 pupils at non-denominational schools^[49].

Teachers: We were not able to source figures on the number of teachers with this protected characteristic..

Impacts on the grounds of religion/belief protected characteristic: This section outlines views we have heard which indicate a differential impact based on religion/belief.

We heard views from the Scottish Catholic Education Service (SCES) who indicated that they would welcome further detail on the SDA in order to be able to comment more comprehensively on the potential implications for Roman Catholic schools. SCES also noted that they would welcome the opportunity for SCES, and their partners, to be considered as national bodies involved in the collaborative development of the 'defined' projects offered initially to schools in the implementation period.

SCES offered a number of general points including:

"The current opportunities offered through such initiatives as the Caritas award would integrate well with the vision for Personal Pathways, allowing learners the scope to reflect on their Core Religious Education, charity work, ecological action, Caritas journey and involvement in liturgical and faith activities as part of a community of faith and learning."

"We would consider that many of the current initiatives in Catholic schools, such as Laudato Si' Schools (that integrates ecological education, children's rights and global development goals) would enhance such projects."

Impacts on the grounds of Religion/belief protected characteristic:

No specific equality issues have been identified during the evidence gathering process for this characteristic at this stage. Further engagement with relevant faith groups such as Interfaith Scotland and SCES will be undertaken during the policy development process.

Conclusions: Religion/belief

At this stage we conclude that the potential impact of a leaving certificate will depend on decisions taken around the content of the certificate and how to operationalise it.

However, the policy is designed to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and allow all learners to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. We therefore anticipate positive impacts for learners with this protected characteristic.

No negative equalities issues in respect to religion/belief have been identified that relate to the short-medium term actions outlined in the Scottish Government response. However, in relation to diversifying assessment methods, mitigating measures in relation to minimising teacher bias, outlined elsewhere in this EQIA could be relevant in terms of ensuring equality for all learners.

In terms of positive impacts, as stated above, the aim of these policies is to improve the Senior Phase experience for all learners and ensure that all learners including those with this protected characteristic are able to demonstrate the breadth and depth of their learning. Further engagement will be undertaken with relevant stakeholder organisations to ensure that consideration of religion/belief is built into the policy development process.