Estimating the impact of the new definition of terminal illness for disability assistance in Scotland: research

Delphi Methodology

Earlier analytical work established that there is limited existing data we could use to quantify the impact of the new guidance on the number of people who would qualify for Disability Assistance under terminal illness rules. This is due to a number of reasons, one of the most significant being uncertainty around how medical professionals will apply their judgement.

The Delphi method was identified as a suitable approach to collect and analyse the opinion of medical professionals on the impact of the new guidance on the number of people eligible for Disability Assistance because they are terminally ill.

The Delphi technique is a way of obtaining a collective view from individuals where there is little or no definitive evidence and where opinion is important. This took the form of a series of three iterative questionnaires answered by an anonymous expert panel consisting of doctors and nurses with experience of completing the DS1500 form.

After each survey, or "round", the panel's responses were anonymised and summarised and with this information the panel were invited to re-evaluate their response in light of the replies given by the other experts. Over the course of the surveys the panellists responses got more alike.

The panel consisted initially of 15 experts with experience of a variety of conditions. Over 99% of the people currently receiving PIP because they are terminally ill have one of these conditions as their main disabling condition. Some panellists dropped out over the course of the surveys, and the third survey had seven respondents. The chart below shows the number of panellists with experience of each condition from each round of the research.