AN EVALUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH GAMES 2014 LEGACY: PRE-GAMES REPORT

5. Active

5.1 The Scottish Government Legacy Plan includes the 'Active' theme. This theme is about maximising the potential of the Games and related programmes to help people in Scotland be more active; to make Scotland's places more conducive to active lifestyles and to develop high performance sport in Scotland.

5.2 Three intermediate outcomes are sought under the Active Legacy theme:

• Improve the active infrastructure (people and places)
• Increase physical activity and participation in sport
• Improve Scottish sporting success.

5.3 As discussed in Chapter 2, the key question for evaluation under the Active theme is:

• What effect have the Games had on active infrastructure, sports participation and physical activity?

The Evidence: What do we know?

5.4 The accompanying review^[34] found the evidence on the relationship between sports participation and physical activity and major sporting events to be mixed and often of low quality.

5.5 Much of the evidence available is tracking of the headline rate of adult sports participation over the event and its aftermath (a 'before and after' time series). These headline rates are typically based on population surveys, either dedicated surveys of participation in sport, or general household surveys which include questions on sport.

5.6 Commonly cited major events include the Sydney 2000 Olympics (where the evidence is mixed and inconclusive), and the Barcelona 1992 Olympics (where some evidence of increase in sports participation was found, although this has been disputed). The most recent meta-evaluation of the London 2012 Olympics reported increases in sports participation which it ascribes to the impact of the event and associated legacy programmes. The evidence review found very little research on the impact of Commonwealth Games in particular on sport participation, with the exception of two references to Manchester and Melbourne, where small declines in participation were noted.

5.7 What is clear is that increased sports participation and/or physical activity is not an automatic result of hosting a major sporting event. Changes in population levels of sports participation, and physical activity more broadly, are affected by factors at various levels: individual, environmental and structural. Only the first two are potentially amenable to change as a result of hosting a major sporting event.

• Individual/Personal: age, gender, knowledge/awareness of benefits, attitudes, skills, self-efficacy; motivation, interest;
• Environmental/community: facilities, green space, cost, weather, family & peer influences;
• Macro/structural: ageing population, urbanisation trends, decline in leisure time availability, rise in sedentary leisure alternatives; rise in car ownership and use, decline in manual occupations.

5.8 It is also important to note that while clearly linked, sports participation and physical activity are not the same thing. It is possible to be sufficiently active for health without taking part in sport, through walking or active commuting to work or school, for example. Conversely it is possible to take part in some sports without vigorously exercising.

5.9 Theories of how major events may affect sports participation and physical activity tend to focus on the impact of events on the individual-level factors. The review cites some evidence of a 'demonstration effect' - where major sporting events can inspire increased sports participation in three ways:

• Increased frequency of participation by existing sports participants
• Renewed sports participation in lapsed participants
• Existing sports participants can be inspired to try a new sport

5.10 In addition, the theory suggests that a 'festival effect' can encourage those who are not interested in sport and not very active to consider undertaking more physical activity. The wider celebrations, cultural activity and community events associated with a major sporting event can inspire some people to take part in more activity related to their interests. This 'festival effect' is thought to potentially inspire those who are uninterested in sport and unlikely to be receptive to public health messages about the health benefits of sport.

5.11 Beyond any potential impact of the event itself, a recurring theme is that legacies from major events do not happen by chance, but require careful planning and embedding in existing strategies on sport and physical activity.

5.12 The evidence review highlights two key issues related to major sporting events and their active infrastructure legacies: the long-term use of event infrastructure and the importance of grassroots sports infrastructure.

5.13 The concern with event infrastructure in the literature is a long-standing one about insufficient long-term planning for subsequent use of major stadia (the 'white elephant' issue). The evidence review concludes the post-Games usage of venues has varied considerably from event to event, though there are some indications that over time, the 'white elephant' issue has become less prevalent as awareness has grown of the importance of early planning for post-Games use and integration into the existing infrastructure landscape.

5.14 The evidence is mixed on whether grassroots sports infrastructure can be enhanced in relation to the hosting of a major event. As with other potential impacts, it is clear there is no automatic effect. Previous major events have varied in the extent to which a grassroots legacy has been specifically sought and planned for. A research study after London 2012 (cited in the evidence review) suggests there is a perception amongst sports clubs in England of a lack of support and funding to build a long term grassroots legacy.

5.15 There is not a large literature on the effect of hosting a major event on the performance of the host nation. A review of the limited wider literature on factors that influence international sporting success concluded that more than half the determinants of success identified are macro-level factors largely beyond the influence of government^[35].

5.16 The meta-evaluation of the London 2012 Olympics concluded that there is evidence that Great Britain's team performance was boosted by the UK hosting the Games. Research conducted with sport National Governing Bodies as part of the 2012 meta-evaluation indicated that performance development programmes led to more careful monitoring and improvement of all aspects of elite sport development, from talent identification and development, to elite athlete support (including wider lifestyle factors), to sports science and medicine and elite coach development.

5.17 This performance development approach, coupled with enhanced scientific research and innovation and increased funding for elite sport is considered to have contributed to the success of Team GB in the 2012 Olympics, as conventionally measured in numbers of medals won. Medal performance was at the upper end of the target range with 65 medals won in Olympic sports and 120 in Paralympic sports.

Glasgow 2014 Legacy Investment and Programmes

5.18 A number of national legacy programmes are underway to help capitalise on the Games. These are set out in Figure 4.1. More detailed information on the programmes and their early monitoring data is available on the Assessing Legacy 2014 website. Some of these programmes are also being externally evaluated, or self-evaluated by the lead organisations. Evaluation data will be available for some programmes in our first legacy report in autumn 2015.

Figure 5.1. Active Legacy Programmes

Programme	Who is delivering it?
Increase Physical Activity and Participation in Sport
Physical Activity Implementation Plan	Scottish Government, Local Authorities, NHS Heath Boards, NHS Health Scotland, local government and Education, Environment, and Sport and Transport bodies
Fit in 2014	NHS Health Scotland and Scottish Government
Sport and PE in schools	sportscotland and Education Scotland with Local Authorities and other partners
Games for Scotland	EventScotland with Local Authorities
Big 2014 Communities Programme	The BIG Lottery Fund Scotland
Mytime Active's Healthy Powerful Communities	Mytime Active
Improve the Active Infrastructure (people and places)
Community Sport Hubs	sportscotland, working with individual local authorities
Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund	sportscotland
Legacy 2014 Sustainable Sport for Communities Fund	Social Investment Scotland and the Robertson Trust
Supporting Coaches and Volunteers	sportscotland with Scottish Governing Bodies of sport
Improve Scottish Sporting Success
High Performance Sport	sportscotland

Increase Physical Activity and Participation in Sport

5.19 The key national legacy programmes designed to influence population levels of activity in adults and children include the national Physical Activity Implementation Plan (PAIP)^[36] and the Sport & PE in Schools programme.

5.20 The PAIP is a new 10 year plan which adapts the key elements of the 2010 Toronto Charter^[37] for Physical Activity to Scotland, and links this directly to the Scottish Government's legacy ambitions for the Commonwealth Games. The Toronto Charter was developed following extensive worldwide expert consultation and makes the case for increased action and greater investment on physical activity for health, environmental, economic and other wider outcomes.

5.21 The Plan represents Scotland's long term physical activity implementation policy. It adapts the Toronto Charter's seven best investments that work to promote physical activity and presents these in the Scottish context under five delivery themes: environment, workplace settings, healthcare settings, education settings and sport and active recreation.

5.22 The Sport & PE in Schools programme is a 'whole school' approach to increasing physical activity in children in Scotland, prioritising both regular physical education classes built into the curriculum and enhanced extra-curricular opportunities to engage in sport and physical activity through the Active Schools programme.

5.23 The aim of the programme is to deliver the PE commitment: that every school child in Scotland will benefit from at least two hours of PE per week in primary school and two sessions per week in secondary school. Active Schools is the national network providing opportunities for children and young people to participate in sport before, during and after the school day.

5.24 To deliver the PE programme, £5.8 million has been made available by sportscotland and Education Scotland over the two years to 2013/14 to add to the resource already invested by Local Authorities. sportscotland have invested £3.4 million through local authorities with Education Scotland supplementing that with a £2.4 million package of national initiatives to increase the support available to schools and teachers. This has supported a network of local authority PE lead officers, a programme of Professional Learning for teachers, a PE school grants fund and the roll out of Scottish Disability Sport's inclusive PE programme.

5.25 Furthermore, in December 2013, it was announced that Education Scotland and sportscotland will provide continued investment of £5.8 million over 2014-15 to 2015-16 to support schools to deliver high quality learning experiences in PE. This funding will assist Local Authorities in maintaining the quantity, and continuing to improve the quality, of PE provision in schools, ensuring that all children and young people have the opportunity to develop the fundamental competencies and skills necessary to participate in a wide range of physical activity and sport.

5.26 In addition to these key national legacy programmes, embedded in existing sport and physical activity policy, other legacy programmes are designed to build on the festival atmosphere and wider community and cultural celebrations associated with the Games. Games for Scotland is managed by EventScotland, and provides local authorities with up to £10,000 to help put on a community event, giving local people the chance to try out Commonwealth Games-themed sports and cultural activities, particularly around dance.

5.27 The Big Lottery Fund's BIG 2014 Communities Fund is a funding programme helping to create a legacy from the Commonwealth Games in communities across Scotland. The programme makes available grants of £300 to £2000 to local sports clubs, voluntary and community organisations, community councils and schools who want to take part or volunteer in physical activity or sport. The grants can be used to cover coaching costs, taster sessions and open days, equipment purchases, school-club links and outreach work, sports kit, and venue hire. BIG is investing £6.3 million in this programme.

Improve the Active Infrastructure (People and Places)

5.28 Improving the places where physical activity takes place is a key element of the PAIP, but there are also additional legacy programmes focussed on improving Scotland's active infrastructure. Community Sport Hubs provide homes for local clubs and sport organisations, based in local facilities like sport centres, community centres, the natural environment and schools. sportscotland are working with all 32 local authorities across Scotland to ensure at least 150 are in place by 2016.

5.29 The Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund is a £10 million fund managed by sportscotland. It is for community projects to help create or improve places where local people can go to get active, places like new skate parks, outdoor adventure facilities and walking routes. Grants of up to £100,000 are available to help contribute to the costs to create or upgrade a facility, space or place. In the first three funding rounds, over 100 projects were supported.

5.30 Enhancing the people side of Scotland's active infrastructure is the focus of the Supporting Coaches and Volunteers legacy programme. This programme is designed to help the Scottish Governing Bodies of the 17 sports in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games have coaches, volunteers and officials sufficient in quantity and quality to help widen and sustain participation and leave a well-defined performance pathway in their sport.

Improve Scottish Sporting Success

5.31 sportscotland provide additional funding and support to Scotland's high performance athletes to help deliver individual and team success at the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and future major sporting events. Further, they support coaches and volunteers to ensure sports participants of all abilities are supported by a range of well-trained people.

5.32 sportscotland's investment into the institute of sport network in the lead up to the Glasgow Games is designed to ensure that high performance sport has better structures and support than ever before. The sportscotland institute of sport experts are supporting all 17 Games sports and their athletes across a range of disciplines, including: sports medicine, physiotherapy, performance lifestyle, programme design, sports science, strength and conditioning, and talent.

5.33 Heading into new Olympic, Paralympic and Commonwealth Games cycles, experts at the sportscotland institute of sport will continue to work with sports and athletes to build on the momentum generated by the home Games.

What's the current position? Key data and trends since baseline

5.34 Scotland has experienced broadly stable levels of sports participation and physical activity in the adult and child population since 2008. Some small fluctuations in percentages are apparent annually, but there are few statistically significant changes since 2008. The active indicators data are available in full in Annex 2.

5.35 However, there are variations between groups and some (limited) changing trends over time. There are signs of a decline in children's sports participation in recent years, though the change since the baseline year of 2008 is not statistically significant. Further data will be required to determine whether this is a longer term trend.

5.36 Conversely, the percentage of adults walking more than 30 minutes for recreation has increased significantly since 2008. The greatest population health gains are derived from shifting inactive groups to some level of activity^[38], and walking is widely considered an ideal introduction to greater physical activity amongst sedentary groups.

5.37 The Scottish Health Survey shows that of the five domains of physical activity - housework, DIY/gardening, manual occupational work, walking and sport and exercise - the two most important categories in terms of time spent are sport and exercise and walking^[39].

Figure 5.2. Relative contribution of sport and other domains to total hours of physical activity in a week in Scotland, 2012 (percentage of mean hours per week)

5.38 Scotland's experience is typical among middle and high income countries, where there is a long term trajectory of reduced demand for physical activity in household and occupational domains^[40], a trend which is anticipated to continue^[41]. Thus, the relative importance of active travel (walking and cycling) and sport and exercise as components of overall population physical activity is likely to increase.

5.39 Broadly speaking, the age and gender patterns of sports participation and physical activity are similar for children and adults in Scotland. Among children, participation is higher among males than females. The gender gap between boys and girls sports participation has reduced from 6.4% in 2008 to 1.8% in 2012, though this is partly due to a decline in boys' sports participation.

5.40 Amongst adults, these age and gender patterns in sports participation in Scotland have largely remained stable since 2008. Sports participation and physical activity levels are higher among men and tend to decline with age. Sports participation, including walking, is high amongst adults aged 16-44 (83-84%) declining from age 45-54. The only notable age related trend since 2008 is a gradual increase in participation amongst the oldest age group, those aged 75+, from 40% in 2008 to 44% in 2012 (about half of which is accounted for by walking).

5.41 Furthermore, certain groups - teenage girls and older age groups - stand out as having particularly low levels of both sport participation and physical activity. For example, while overall, 70% of those aged 2-15 were active at the recommended level in 2012, only 45% of girls aged 13-15 reported sufficient physical activity to meet the guidelines. Amongst the population aged 16+, 62% meet the recommended physical activity guidelines, and this falls to 25% of those aged over 75. These relatively low levels of physical activity among teenage girls and older age groups are noted in other countries.

5.42 Sports participation and physical activity also show patterns by socio-economic variables (area deprivation and household income). Among adults, both sports participation and physical activity levels are highest among the highest income groups, steadily declining to be lowest in the lowest income groups. Participation and activity levels are highest in least deprived areas and lowest in most deprived areas.

5.43 An exception to this social patterning is physical activity amongst children and young people. Unlike formal participation in sport, there is no clear patterning of children's physical activity levels by area deprivation or household income. This may be due to things like costs associated with playing some sports contributing to social patterning, but this being offset by higher levels of other types of physical activity in lower income households and more deprived areas - for example, active travel to school.

5.44 PE in schools makes a clear difference to the levels of physical activity amongst children and young people. In 2012, school-based activities added 9 percentage points to the proportion of children meeting physical activity guidelines - with some indication that this contribution has increased in recent years.

Figure 5.3. Percentage of children active at the recommended level (including and excluding school based activities) 2008-2012

5.45 More advanced analysis^[42] can help us understand the inter-relationships between different variables. Results indicate that age, disability and economic status are the most important factors in levels of physical activity.

5.46 Crucially, walking acts as an important leveller in variations in participation among adults. For all the individual variations listed above (by age, gender, are deprivation and household income) when walking is excluded, participation gaps widen.

Table 5.4 Effect of walking on variations in sports participation

	% who Participate in Sport - Excluding Walking	% who Participate in Sport - Including Walking	Difference %
Age
16-24 75+	71 21	84 44	13 23
Gender
Male Female	57 46	77 72	20 26
Household Income
Highest band (£40k+) Lowest band (>£6k-£10k)	73 35	89 64	16 29
SIMD
Least deprived Most deprived	62 40	81 65	19 25

5.47 Awareness of physical activity recommendations increased between 2008 and 2011, though it remains that a minority of the population (27%) reported knowing the recommended guidelines. The Physical Activity Guidelines were updated by the UK's four Chief Medical Officers in 2011, with new guidelines for early years, older adults and on sedentary behaviour added for the first time. In addition, the core message to adults aged 19-64 was updated to recommend that over a week activity should add up to at least 150 minutes.

5.48 For the purposes of this Games legacy evaluation, we are planning new analysis to test the hypothesis of a link between major events and sports participation (the demonstration effect mentioned in paragraph 4.9). There is already some evidence that frequency of sports participation has increased in Scotland over the last five years.^[43] There are increasingly more adults participating in sport on 15 or more days in the month and a decreasing number who participate on fewer than 15 days per month. If a 'demonstration effect' operates in relation to the 2014 Commonwealth Games, we would expect this trend to continue, and possibly accelerate.

Figure 5.5. Frequency of participation by adults who took part in sport in the previous 4 weeks 2007-2012

5.49 Furthermore, attitudinal change towards being active will be captured through a new question in the Scottish Health Survey from 2013. This will ask people whether they think the Games have influenced their propensity to take part in sport^[44]. We will examine differences between sports participants and non-participants, and provide some evidence on whether any 'festival effect' reaches those who do not take part in sport.

5.50 Evidence suggests that the potential for harnessing any demonstration effect is weakened if the population hold negative views towards the event in question. Overall public engagement^[45] with the Commonwealth Games in Scotland is high and has increased year on year since 2011^[46]. If a demonstration effect occurs, we might expect there to be an association between sports participation and engagement with the Games - with engagement higher among those who take part in sport. We intend to test this through analysis of the 2013 Scottish Household Survey which includes questions on Games engagement and sports participation.

5.51 We have examined the relationship between engagement and participation using 2012 Scottish Household Survey data on attitudes towards the London 2012 Olympic Games^[47]. In 2012, 76% of adults in Scotland followed, or intended to follow, the Olympic Games^[48]. The most common method of following the Olympic Games was watching on TV, accounting for 71% of adults.

5.52 More advanced analysis^[49] gives greater insight into the factors related to engagement with the Olympic Games in Scotland. This analysis shows that men were more likely to follow the Games than women and older age groups were more likely to follow on TV than younger age groups. Sports participants twice as likely to follow the Olympic Games as non-participants.

5.53 More active engagement with the Games, attending ticketed events, for example, was lower (7% of Scottish adults). When more active engagement^[50] with the Olympic Games is examined, the relationship with sports participation is even stronger. Sports participants in Scotland were more than three times more likely to be actively engaged in the Olympics than non-participants.

5.54 It is plausible to expect these findings will be replicated in relation to engagement with the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, and that active engagement will be higher than for London 2012, given their location closer to home. Active engagement^[51] in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is growing and reached 32% in 2013.

5.55 This suggests the conditions in Scotland are conducive to the operation of a demonstration effect in relation to the Commonwealth Games. We will assess this through analysis of behaviour change over time of participants, and assess whether there is evidence of increased frequency of sports participation amongst those engaged with the Commonwealth Games.

5.56 It is important to note that the above analysis will help assess whether there has been a boost to sporting participation amongst those already engaged in sport to some extent, though this may be as little as once in 4 weeks. It is difficult to know to what extent all sports participants are sufficiently active to meet physical activity recommendations - this is likely to vary considerably between different groups. Given the small proportion of the population who are very highly active (and therefore at potential risk of injury), it is plausible that increased frequency of participation will have an overall positive effect on population physical activity levels.

5.57 However, reaching the fifth of the population with very low levels of activity will be more challenging and a focus of the long term legacy strategy efforts, requiring the actions set out in the National Physical Activity Implementation Plan. This is likely to be a group with little emotional connection to sport, and therefore unlikely to be affected by the demonstration type effects described above. Further, evidence from the GoWell East baseline survey also shows that very inactive groups in this survey include people whose health is not good enough to take part in sport.

5.58 In terms of infrastructure, indicators suggest an enhancement of the sports infrastructure in Scotland since 2008. The numbers of people employed in the sports and leisure sector has increased; volunteering in sports is stable and figures from sportscotland indicate an increase in the number of UKCC qualified coaches since 2008. Furthermore, there are increasing numbers of Community Sport Hubs and increased use of and levels of user satisfaction with local authority leisure facilities - from 82% in 2008 to 88% in 201.

5.59 Finally, the standard international measure of elite sporting success is the number of medals won in international competition^[52], and a new indicator has been included in the active indicator set to track elite performance (see Annex 1). Team Scotland is predicted to be the largest Scottish Commonwealth Games team to date with more than 202 athletes aiming for a target medal haul of more than 33, to top the total of 29 at the 2006 Games in Melbourne.^[53]

Prospective Assessment and Summary

5.60 The evidence on a link between major events and sports participation and physical activity remains inconclusive. Increases in sports participation amongst certain groups and under certain conditions do seem plausible. However, the extent to which boosts to sports participation can be sustained over the longer term is more uncertain.

5.61 Tackling population activity levels is a long term, generational public health challenge that will require concerted effort. It is unlikely that the Games will have an impact on population level participation in and of itself. Rather, the Commonwealth Games active legacy ambitions are specifically embedded in the key national programme under the Active legacy theme: the national Physical Activity Implementation Plan (PAIP).

5.62 The data also demonstrates the importance of walking for physical activity and the need to target particular groups. The PAIP includes a new Walking Strategy for Scotland that will be launched in June 2014.

5.63 In terms of infrastructure, the proportion of new build venues for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games has been less than for other major sporting events and most are already open to the public, schools, clubs and sports bodies. This bodes well for a sustainable infrastructure for sport and physical activity beyond the Games.

5.64 A prospective assessment for Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is presented in the final chapter.