AN EVALUATION OF THE COMMONWEALTH GAMES 2014 LEGACY: PRE-GAMES REPORT

7. Discussion and Prospective Assessment

7.1 The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games are on track to be delivered on time and on budget. At the time of writing, all permanent venues have been refurbished or constructed, the Athletes' Village is complete and most venues are in public use. Furthermore, 94% of publicly available tickets have been sold, over 15,000 clyde-siders are in training, the Culture 2014 programme is underway and the Festival 2014 programme is being finalised.

7.2 The Scottish Government and partners also have aspirations to bring tangible and lasting physical, social and economic benefits to the people of Scotland. There are now over 50 national legacy programmes and a further 80 programmes and projects in Glasgow City. Together these programmes, and the hosting of the Games themselves, should help generate legacy.

7.3 The accompanying evidence review^[58], suggests that hosting major events can create a legacy, but there is no 'automatic' effect. Successful legacies are well planned, well delivered, and embedded in existing strategies and policies. The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games partners, and the wider public and third sectors in Scotland have been purposively planning legacy since 2009, So, in theory, we should expect to achieve tangible outcomes.

7.4 It is too early to establish whether legacy outcomes are being achieved. Rather this chapter draws together a prospective assessment based on the accompanying evidence review on major sporting events, the early evaluation data, what we know of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games legacy investments and programmes.

Flourishing

7.5 Overall, the evidence on previous events, and the economic analysis to date, suggest that the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games should make a short-term contribution to the Scottish economy.

7.6 The early modelling work estimates that the £500 million spending on construction and refurbishment of Games venues and the Athletes' Village over the six years leading to 2014 will have supported, on average, around 1,000 jobs and contributed £52 million to Scotland's GVA in each of those years. While this public sector investment has an opportunity cost, the pace provided by the Games arguably brought forward and secured public spending.

7.7 Ticket sales and procurement data also suggest that there will be a boost to businesses and tourism in 2014 as a result of the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. It is estimated that for each £100 million of visitor spending in 2014, around 1,300 FTE jobs will be supported and will contribute £45 million to Scottish GVA.

7.8 Scale may be important for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Although the evidence suggests that the effects of hosting major sporting events are likely to be focused on a specific geographical area, this may be important for the overall economy in Scotland. The city of Glasgow accounts for 17% of national economic output and 11% of the population, so increases in output or employment in the area could have an effect nationally.

7.9 The Games have provided (and will provide) employment opportunities across a number of sectors, although this is, inevitably, short-term in many cases. Nevertheless, such short-term employment may reduce the distance from permanent labour market opportunities. The short-term nature of employment associated with both preparation and hosting is viewed both positively (as important experience and skills), and negatively (as temporary and low paid) in the literature.

7.10 There is some evidence that employment opportunities can reach the long-term unemployed, including in host areas, if effectively planned and targeted. Games partners have been working to leverage legacy from infrastructure investments and contracting in terms of employment, training and volunteering. In sum, up to 5,000 opportunities are available across national employment and training programmes for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. Additional opportunities are already secured in Glasgow. The uptake of programmes is encouraging, but it is too early to make an assessment of their value. The evaluations of these programmes will provide more information in 2015.

7.11 Early findings from the community longitudinal study in the East End of Glasgow (the GoWell East study) show that 7% of respondents aged 16-64 years old had undertaken Games-related paid employment and just over 15% Games-related training, apprenticeships or work experience in the period 2011-12. In this area, the employment rate is lower than the city average, workless households are twice as common as elsewhere in Scotland, while many of those out of work have been actively looking for work and are dissatisfied with their current situation. Partners in the area are working to ensure local people benefit from employment and training opportunities.

7.12 There is evidence that demonstrates some positive effects from volunteering as a result of hosting the Games. A small body of evidence suggests that those who gain volunteering positions at major sporting events tend to be those who already have employable skills, and also tend to be regular volunteers at other events. Early indications are that this is also the case in the Glasgow context, but there has also been a concerted effort through the Legacy 2014 Volunteer Support programme and the Glasgow Host City Volunteer Programme to target those who may face barriers to volunteering. More information will be available on volunteers and volunteer programmes in a report to be published in 2015.

7.13 The available evidence on the plausibility of a lasting economic legacy is very limited. What we can say is that it appears to depend on a step change to economic participation, productivity or international reputation at the national and city level. The evidence suggests that the Games-related activities could help to increase participation, by helping local people to gain skills and experience. The Games could, in theory, help boost productivity over the long-term by increasing business capacity and networks.

7.14 The evidence shows that some cities have seen increased business activity and tourism as a result of a boost to international reputation from hosting a successful major sporting event. However, this is not a foregone conclusion. Perceptions of Scotland and Glasgow have remained relatively stable since 2008. Given the evidence, the expectation of a successful event and the programmes underway we should, in theory, observe an improvement in international reputation. We will be tracking this through the Nations Brand Index (NBI^SM) and by monitoring online and social media.

7.15 In particular there may be scope for growing the events industry by using the Games infrastructure and developing skills base (paid and voluntary) to attract national and international events. There are early indications of success for Scotland and Glasgow, with numerous international and national events in the calendar that make use of the upgraded and new infrastructure before, and after, the Games.

Sustainable

7.16 The evidence review and the prospective assessment conducted by the GoWell East Team^[59] suggest we should expect the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games to have an impact on the physical and social environment in the area of the East End of Glasgow where much of the Games investment - and crucially - the longer-term regeneration effort has occurred.

7.17 The evidence suggests that major sporting events can accelerate and extend regeneration plans, acting as catalysts for socio-economic development. However, these need to be linked to wider, longer-term plans and have community engagement at their heart. The evidence does highlight potential problems of displacement and widening inequality among host populations, although these concerns vary widely across events. In some cases the use of vacant and derelict land and remediation of contaminated land has minimised negative impacts upon existing communities.

7.18 The Games investment in the East End of Glasgow is embedded into broader regeneration strategies and has made use of derelict and remediated land. The differences between regeneration activity in the Clyde Gateway area and other recent regeneration efforts are the scale of infrastructure development (including land and transport works), and the focus on engaging employers and linking them to local labour^[60].

7.19 The data already show changes in the levels of remediated land, a decrease in vacant and derelict land, creation of green space and construction of business space. Almost half of respondents in the GoWell East study say their neighbourhood has improved over the past three years. This is a larger proportion than in other similar deprived regeneration areas in the city where the dominant perception is of stability.

7.20 This is not, however, just about the physical infrastructure. Regeneration in Glasgow over recent years has been based on a more holistic, integrated approach and does seem to be underpinned by explicit community engagement^[61]. There are a wide range of legacy programmes underway, some targeted at the East End, some are national or city-wide but cover this area. These include employability programmes, cultural and physical activity programmes. GoWell East will examine changes in physical activity and wellbeing, experience and outcomes of employment, learning and volunteering and engagement with legacy programmes as the study progresses.

7.21 There is limited evidence on whether major sporting events can strengthen and empower communities. Thus, it is notable that the GoWell East baseline survey suggests that residents have a relatively strong sense of being able to influence decisions in the local area. More than a third of respondents agree that they can influence decisions in the local area, higher than for Glasgow as a whole. Engagement with the Games is also high in the area, with over three quarters supportive of the Games.

7.22 Finally, on the broader sustainable theme, major sporting events have set high environmental standards and have been used to showcase innovative sustainable designs and practices in the last decade. The evidence review suggests that it is not straightforward to generate buy-in and implement high standards. However, issues of sustainability have been carefully considered in the preparation for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games. There are some early signs that a knowledge transfer effect for sustainability standards may happen for major capital projects. This will be assessed again in 2015.

Active

7.23 The evidence on the extent to which an 'active legacy' might be achieved as a result of hosting major sporting events is mixed and generally of low quality.

7.24 The evidence review highlights two key issues related to legacy from major sporting events and their sports infrastructure legacies. Firstly, the long term use of major event infrastructure and, secondly, the importance of grassroots sports infrastructure.

7.25 The problems of insufficient long-term planning for subsequent use of major stadia, the 'white elephant' phenomenon, is a long-standing one in the literature. The evidence suggests that the use of established infrastructure, early planning for post-event use and early public use of facilities, should, in theory, result in the sustainable use of venues.

7.26 The proportion of new build venues for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games has been less than for other major sporting events, with 70% of venues already in place at the time of bidding to host the event. Most new and refurbished facilities are already open to the public, schools, clubs and sports bodies for use in advance of the Games. This bodes well for a sustainable infrastructure legacy in Scotland. The use, and profile of users, in Games venues is being monitored by partners.

7.27 The Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and related legacy effort has supported national infrastructure investments beyond the Games venues, including Community Sport Hubs and the Legacy 2014 Active Places Fund. These investments are additional to infrastructure projects already underway across Scotland, including the upgrading of the school estate.

7.28 However, this is not just about built infrastructure. sportscotland are supporting the Scottish sports governing bodies for the 17 Commonwealth Games sports to ensure they have the coaches, volunteers and officials with the aim of widening and sustaining participation. This is crucial to capitalise on any post-event 'bounce'.

7.29 There are some signs of progress in Scotland since the 2008 baseline year. The active indicators show that the numbers of people employed in the sports and leisure sector has increased; volunteering in sports is stable; there has been an increase in the number of UKCC qualified coaches and levels of user satisfaction with local authority leisure facilities has increased. There are also recent indications that active Scots are becoming more active.

7.30 However, we know from the evidence that a long term active legacy is not just about sport. While sport is an important contributor to activity levels in Scotland, accounting for over a third of activity, walking accounts for a quarter. Crucially, walking acts as an important leveller in variations in participation among adults.

7.31 Further, evidence suggests that simply hosting a major sporting event does not, in and of itself, lead to automatic population shifts in physical activity. Increases in sports participation amongst certain groups and under certain conditions may be plausible (the demonstration effect), but a population shift is unlikely without genuine efforts to embed legacy aspirations into long-term policies.

7.32 Understanding this broader context, the Scottish Government and partners launched a new Physical Activity Implementation Plan in March 2014 entitled 'A More Active Scotland: Building a Legacy from the Commonwealth Games'. This Plan builds on the 2009 Legacy Strategy and on the internationally renowned Toronto Charter. The plan includes a new Walking Strategy, school programmes, prevention initiatives, public education and community-wide programs.

7.33 Finally, there is not a large literature on the effect of hosting a major event on the sporting performance of the host nation. A review of the literature on factors that influence international sporting success concluded that more than half the determinants of elite success identified are largely beyond the influence of government. However, evidence from London 2012 concluded that there is evidence that Great Britain's team medal performance was boosted by the UK hosting the Games. The performance development approach, coupled with enhanced scientific research and innovation and increased funding for elite sport, is considered to have contributed to that success.

Connected

7.34 There is currently limited evidence to help us assess what the long term impact of hosting a major event and its related festivals may be on cultural engagement and the culture sector.

7.35 There is some evidence that widening the range of opportunities to engage helps expand the audience at a major sporting event to those not interested in sport. Previous major sporting events have seen almost an equal number of people participate in the cultural events as the sporting events. Given the nature and scale of the investment in cultural programming we might expect to see high, and broad, levels of engagement in 2014.

7.36 There is also evidence that public engagement and interest in a major event is crucial for the success of the event itself and for other outcomes on enhanced reputation, increased sport participation and community engagement. The signs to date are that public interest in the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games is high in Scotland, and has grown as the event draws closer.

7.37 Little empirical evidence exists on a link between major events and civic pride. The London 2012 meta-evaluation reports some evidence of increased civic pride related to the Cultural Olympiad. Wider research on civic pride suggests it can be an important element in developing sustainable, cohesive communities. We expect to address this in the Glasgow 2014 context. Questions on pride in city and neighbourhood have been included in relevant surveys.

7.38 Although Scotland already has well known international strengths in culture and festivals, there is some evidence that the scale and reach of cultural programmes associated with major Games can lead to development of the cultural and wider creative industries sector, for example through new partnerships at strategic and project level that can sustain beyond events. The Culture and Festival 2014 evaluation will be exploring this in detail.

7.39 Finally, there is very limited evidence on the value and effectiveness of learning and educational activities around major events, as they tend not to be fully evaluated. The planned evaluations of both the Cultural Programme and the official education programme, Game on Scotland, should help fill some of this gap in the evidence.

In summary

7.40 The Scottish Government (SG) and partners have designed an evaluation of Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and conducted an evidence review to learn lessons from previous events, to maximise the potential of legacy in Scotland and to provide intelligence for future bidders and hosts. SG and partners have responded to this evidence in the planning and delivery of legacy.

7.41 Given the long-term and explicit legacy planning for the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games and the evidence from previous major sporting events, legacy looks possible in Scotland and Glasgow in a number of areas. These include the regeneration of the East End of Glasgow, an economic boost in the construction, tourism and hospitality sectors and an enhancement of international reputation.

7.42 For other areas, particularly around population-level sport and physical activity, achieving legacy outcomes looks more challenging. SG and partners recognise that the Games may act more as a 'catalyst' for broader strategies, rather than have an effect in and of themselves. To address this, a new ten year Physical Activity Implementation Plan was launched in February 2014. This Plan recognises that tackling population activity levels is a long term, generational public health challenge.

7.43 There are a number of legacy outcomes for which the evidence is limited, so a prospective assessment is hard to make. In particular, the available evidence on achieving long-term outcomes from cultural and educational programmes is very limited. Evaluations of the education programme in Scotland 'Game on Scotland' and 'Culture and Festival 2014' will make an important contribution to the evidence base.

7.44 The evidence generally points to the need for community engagement and 'grassroots' involvement across the national themes, in Games preparation and in the longer term. Early results from the GoWell East study on influencing decisions in the area and support for the Games are promising and a number of legacy programmes are community-grown and community-based.

7.45 Finally, a concerted effort to maintain focus and momentum and embed the aspirations and outcomes into long term strategies will be critical in achieving many legacy outcomes. The SG and partners are now working on long term, evidence based, legacy planning to ensure this momentum is sustained post-Games.

7.46 We will continue to monitor and evaluate Games Legacy in Scotland until 2019. The next report will be published in autumn 2015, just over a year after the Games. This will include the economic assessment, the results from the second sweep of the community longitudinal study (GoWell East) and evaluation results from large national legacy programmes.