Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scotland's Strategic Framework update – February 2022: evidence paper

1. Outline of the paper

The purpose of this evidence paper is to provide an overview of the key analysis and evidence underpinning the latest refresh of the Strategic Framework.

The paper is split into two main sections. The first section establishes the current position across all four harms as previously identified in the December 2020 paper “Framework for decision making – assessing the four harms of the crisis”^[1]. The second section of the paper looks forward presenting the latest evidence underpinning the approaches proposed in the updated Strategic Framework for managing the epidemic as it moves into the next stage. It then sets out 4 plausible futures to illustrate how the future may unfold. Finally the paper considers how the epidemic could be monitored and reported in the future.