Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scotland's Strategic Framework update – February 2022: evidence paper
This evidence paper accompanies the Strategic Framework update and provides an overview of the key analysis and evidence underpinning the Framework, published on 22 February 2022.
Footnotes
2 Omicron variant - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
3 COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public
4 Self-Isolation and testing changes - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
5 Coronavirus (COVID-19): infection survey - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
6 Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
7 Coronavirus (COVID-19) state of the epidemic 18 February 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
10 Based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD): Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
12 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
13 COVID-19 Daily Dashboard | Tableau Public
14 Based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD): Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2020 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
15 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report
16 This release includes analysis of 34,199 COVID-19 related admissions and deaths where ethnic group was available. For more details on the methodology please see Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report
17 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
19 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
20 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
21 Seven-day moving averages of cases by specimen date and reporting date (left-hand axis) and deaths and hospitalisation (right-hand axis). Source: Public Health Scotland, data available at: Weekly COVID-19 Statistical Data in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot)
22 Cases data includes Lateral Flow Device (LFD) test results from 5th January 2022 to reflect the revised testing strategy. A case is now defined as a person’s first LFD or PCR positive test.
23 Seven-day moving averages of cases by specimen date (left-hand axis) and deaths and hospitalisation (right-hand axis). Data up to 12/02/2022. Source: https://www.opendata.nhs.scot/dataset/covid-19-in-scotland/resource/2dd8534b-0a6f-4744-9253-9565d62f96c2 and Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
24 Coronavirus (COVID-19) booster vaccination | The coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine (nhsinform.scot)
25 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
27 State of the Epidemic in Scotland – 21 January 2022 (www.gov.scot)
28 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report
29 Uptake rates presented in the analysis use different denominators than those in the Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Daily Dashboard and will show lower rates than the daily publication. The estimates used to calculate population denominators by ethnicity and deprivation are from the CHI registration and may over-estimate the population size as they will include, for example, some individuals no longer resident in Scotland who have not deregistered with a GP in Scotland
30 in an age-standardised population
31 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
32 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
33 From Thursday 11 November 2021, ‘booster & dose 3’ are combined under one number. Until then, the numbers reported were for booster vaccine.
34 Omicron variant - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
35 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (5 January)
36 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (20 December)
37 Omicron in Scotland - Evidence Paper (www.gov.scot)
38 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases - Our World in Data
45 SAGE 102 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 January 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
47 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
48 *S1476_SAGE_102_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
49 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
50 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
51 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
52 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 4 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
53 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
54 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
55 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 5 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
56 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk) 28 January 2022
58 CoVariants
59 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
60 Variants: distribution of case data, 18 February 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
61 Nextstrain / ncov / gisaid / global
62 CoVariants
64 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk) 28 January 2022
66 COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
68 Coronavirus (COVID-19): getting tested in Scotland - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
72 UK evaluation_PHE Porton Down University of Oxford_final.pdf
73 Lateral flow device performance data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
77 SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation (publishing.service.gov.uk)
78 Diagnostics for COVID-19: moving from pandemic response to control - The Lancet
80 20220110_Self-isolation_Scientific-Summary_Final-clean.pdf (koha-ptfs.co.uk)
82 Schools COVID-19 operational guidance - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
85 Test to release from isolation after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 | medRxiv
86 20220110_Self-isolation_Scientific-Summary_Final-clean.pdf (koha-ptfs.co.uk)
87 changes-to-self-isolation-flowchart_fp_360x268-lores-final-14jan22.pdf (nhsinform.scot)
88 Show all releases - Publications - Public Health Scotland
89 COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report (publichealthscotland.scot)
90 See Annex A for a timeline of legislative requirements and guidance.
91 Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (who.int)
92 https://www.gov.scot/news/tackling-the-threat-of-new-covid-19-variant/
93 Red list of countries and territories - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (Edit from 25 November)
94 Tackling the threat of new COVID-19 variant - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
95 Pre-departure test requirement for travel - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
96 11 countries removed from international travel red list - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
97 Pre-departure test requirement for travel - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
98 Easing of restrictions on international travellers - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
100 Omicron variant - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
101 Public Health Scotland COVID-19 & Winter Statistical Report
102 Boosting support for the vaccination programme - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
103 Evidence paper on rapid rise of Omicron cases - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
104 Self-Isolation and testing changes - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
105 Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's speech – 17 December 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
106 Limiting the spread of Omicron - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
107 New measures required to slow the spread of Coronavirus - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
108 Omicron restrictions take effect - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
109 Large outdoor events resume from 17 January - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
110 Omicron measures to be lifted - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
111 Negative test added to certification - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
112 Large outdoor events resume from 17 January - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
113 COVID vaccine for 12-15 year olds - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
114 Returning to school safely - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
115 Keeping schools safe - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
116 A&E activity and waiting times - Month ending 31 December 2021
117 Stage of treatment waiting times - Inpatients, day cases and new outpatients 30 November 2021
118 Stage of treatment waiting times - Inpatients, day cases and new outpatients 30 November 2021
119 Cancer waiting times - 1 July to 30 September 2021
121 Public attitudes to coronavirus - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
124 Confidence limits for UK and Scotland overlap
125 Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Estimates presented in this analysis relate to self-reported long COVID, as experienced by study participants who responded to a representative survey, rather than clinically diagnosed ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 or post-COVID-19 syndrome in the full population.
126 » Portman Group-YouGov research on pandemic drinking and the return to pubs
129 Scottish Health Survey 2019 - volume 1: main report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
130 Longitudinal changes in physical activity during and after the first national lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic in England | Scientific Reports (nature.com) (Evidence from UCL study suggests little difference
132 Scottish COVID-19 Mental Health Tracker Study: Wave 4 Report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
134 Public attitudes to coronavirus: April summary - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
135 Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
136 Personal well-being in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
137 ONS, Personal well-being in the UK: April 2020 to March 2021
138 Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)(1-2 February data will be published in March 2022)
139 Personal well-being in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)
140 UCL COVID Social Study Results Release 41, 9 December 2021
141 Coronavirus (COVID-19): mental health - transition and recovery plan - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
142 UCL COVID Social Study Results Release 41, 9 December 2021
143 UCL COVID Social Study Results Release 42, 14 January 2022
144 ONS, Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 21 January 2022
145 YouGov, 18-20 Jan Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
146 YouGov, 18-20 Jan Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
147 Ipsos MORI Wave 2: December 2020
149 YouGov, 1-2nd Feb 2022 data unpublished.
150 Ipsos MORI Wave 2: December 2020
152 YouGov, 18-20 Jan Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
154 COVID-19: understanding inequalities in wellbeing during the pandemic
156 Ipsos MORI Wave 2: December 2020
157 RSPH | Survey reveals the mental and physical health impacts of home working during Covid-19
158 YouGov, 1-2nd Feb 2022 data unpublished.
163 RSPH | Survey reveals the mental and physical health impacts of home working during Covid-19
164 Challenging boundaries of work space | The Psychologist (bps.org.uk)
165 https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2104/2104.10440.pdf
168 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
169 The total sample size was 1011 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 11th - 15th November 2021. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) 1 in 3 people find energy bills 'unaffordable' - CAS Launches new campaign |
172 College Statistics 2020-21 (sfc.ac.uk)
173 GradutatOutcomes Data | HESA
174 https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/graduates
175 Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
176 Scottish household survey 2019: annual report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
177 UCL Covid-19 Social Study, 9 December 2021
178 See the latest issue of modelling the epidemic - gov.scot for Scottish Contact Survey figures
180 COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on social relationships and health, University of Glasgow research
181 Scottish Household Survey 2020 - telephone survey: key findings - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
182 Creative Scotland 2020: covid-summary-final.pdf (creativescotland.com)
183 GDP Monthly Estimate: November 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
184 GDP Monthly Estimate: November 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
185 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 48 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
186 GDP Monthly Estimate: November 2021 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
187 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 48 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
188 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 48 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
189 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 47 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
190 Labour market trends: February 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
191 Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme statistics: 16 December 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
192 BICS weighted Scotland estimates: data to wave 48 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
193 Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) Wave 47, 2022
194 The figures are taken from COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports published by Google and represent 7-day moving averages to control for daily volatility. The daily estimate for the 10th February 2022 itself, show visits to work places in Edinburgh and Glasgow were 41% and 36% below pre-pandemic levels, respectively.
195 The figures are taken from COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports published by Google and represent 7-day moving averages to control for daily volatility
196 Endemic: MedlinePlus Medical Encyclopedia
197 COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless (nature.com)
198 Covid in Scotland: What happens when the virus becomes endemic? - BBC News
199 Influenza: The Once and Future Pandemic (nih.gov)
200 A human coronavirus evolves antigenically to escape antibody immunity (plos.org)
201 Nextstrain / ncov / gisaid / global / 2022-01-26
202 Nextstrain
203 https://www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
204 COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.
205 SL received support from Chief Scientist Office Project (COV/EDI/20/11), Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division as part of Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks (EPIC), and the BBSRC Institute Strategic Programme grant to Roslin Institute (BB/J004235/1)
206 Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
208 Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
209 Beyond Omicron: what’s next for COVID’s viral evolution (nature.com)
210 Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
211 Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants (who.int)
212 COVID-19 variants: genomically confirmed case numbers - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
213 Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: variant risk assessments - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
215 Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
216 S1509_SAGE_105_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)
217 COVID-19 vaccine tracker and landscape (who.int)
218 Waning immunity | definition of waning immunity by Medical dictionary (thefreedictionary.com)
219 How long does covid-19 immunity last? | The BMJ
221 How long does covid-19 immunity last? | The BMJ
225 COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 5, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
226 Pfizer and BioNTech start trials of new Omicron-specific jab - BBC News
227 Long term evolution of SARS-CoV-2, 26 July 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
228 COVID-19: endemic doesn’t mean harmless (nature.com)
231 What will tomorrow's Covid-19 vaccines be like? - BBC Future
232 COVID-19 – VLA2001 – Valneva
233 Vaxart COVID-19 Oral Vaccine — Precision Vaccinations
234 Akston Biosciences | COVID-19 Vaccine
236 The COVID-19 Therapeutics and Antivirals Taskforce - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
237 COVID-19 therapeutic agents: technical briefing 1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
238 Dexamethasone in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 | NEJM
239 Interleukin-6 Receptor Antagonists in Critically Ill Patients with Covid-19 | NEJM
241 Repurposed Antiviral Drugs for Covid-19 — Interim WHO Solidarity Trial Results | NEJM
242 Early Remdesivir to Prevent Progression to Severe Covid-19 in Outpatients - PubMed (nih.gov)
244 Interim_Clinical_Commissioning_Policy.pdf
245 Interim clinical commissioning policy: Remdesivir for patients hospitalised with COVID-19
250 COVID-19 treatments | European Medicines Agency (europa.eu)
251 MHRA guidance on coronavirus (COVID-19) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
252 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
253 Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine certification: evidence paper update - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
254 Microsoft Word - WP 2022 01 certificates (bruegel.org)
260 HM Government Social Distancing Review:Report (publishing.service.gov.uk)
261 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): How is it transmitted? (who.int)
273 COVID-19 advice - High risk groups | WHO Western Pacific
274 Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
275 Barriers to adherence with COVID-19 restrictions, January 2021
276 YouGov Daily Question, 19 January 2022
277 YouGov, 18-20 Jan Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
278 ONS, Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain: 21 January 2022
279 YouGov, 18-20 Jan Public attitudes to coronavirus: tracker - data tables - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
282 COVID-19 Vaccination in Scotland - Datasets - Scottish Health and Social Care Open Data (nhs.scot)
284 Denmark Covid restrictions lifted despite increase in cases - BBC News
285 Rules and regulations (coronasmitte.dk)
286 Majority of COVID-19 restrictions to be removed on 9 February 2022 - Government.se
287 National recommendations and rules - regjeringen.no
288 3 steps to reopen the Netherlands | News item | Government.nl
289 COVID-19 restrictions in Ireland (citizensinformation.ie)
290 Covid-19: Government plans to remove all remaining restrictions in England a month early | The BMJ
291 Minister Swann Announces Easing Of Covid Regulations | Department of Health (health-ni.gov.uk)
292 Plenary 15/02/2022 - Welsh Parliament (assembly.wales)
293 Gob.cl - Step by Step (www.gob.cl)
294 Covid-19, frequently asked questions and table of activities allowed | www.governo.it
295 Homepage - Corona Traffic Light Model (Ramzor) Website (health.gov.il)
296 National Plan (australia.gov.au), National Cabinet Statement | Prime Minister of Australia (pm.gov.au)
297 Development of packages of infection control measures - regjeringen.no
298 COVID-19 rules | NSW Government
299 Latest Information on the Coronavirus Situation in Austria
300 What are the current measures? | Coronavirus COVID-19 (info-coronavirus.be)
301 COVID-19 public health measures and advice | COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Ontario
302 Gob.cl - Step by Step (www.gob.cl)
303 Info Coronavirus Covid-19 | Gouvernement.fr
304 What do you currently need to know about corona (Englisch) (integrationsbeauftragte.de)
305 Measures against the corona virus - Berlin.de
306 Homepage - Corona Traffic Light Model (Ramzor) Website (health.gov.il)
307 Coronavirus measures in brief | Coronavirus COVID-19 | Government.nl
308 National recommendations and rules - regjeringen.no
309 gov.sg | Home (www.gov.sg)
310 COVID-19 Rules and Restrictions in Singapore (Feb 2022) - SingaporeLegalAdvice.com
311 Regulations and Guidelines - Coronavirus COVID-19 | South African Government (www.gov.za)
312 Current safety measures - Coronavirus COVID-19 Response (ca.gov)
313 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Our World in Data
314 COVID-19 certificate - helsenorge.no
315 Vaccination requirements for workers | NSW Government
316 Vaccine mandates | The Institute for Government
317 Italy makes vaccines mandatory for over-50s – POLITICO
318 Austria's Covid vaccine law comes into force amid resistance - BBC News
319 WHO Manifesto for a healthy recovery from COVID-19
320 UN Research Roadmap for the COVID-19 Recovery | United Nations
321 Recovery and Resilience Facility | European Commission (europa.eu)
322 Paul-Ehrlich-Institut - ZEPAI - Center for Pandemic Vaccines and Therapeutics (pei.de)
323 Consortium Emergen : point d’étape sur son déploiement (santepubliquefrance.fr)
324 Centre for Research on Pandemic Preparedness and Health Emergencies - CIHR (cihr-irsc.gc.ca)
325 American Pandemic Preparedness: Transforming Our Capabilities (whitehouse.gov)
326 CDC Stands Up New Disease Forecasting Center | CDC Online Newsroom | CDC
328 First lessons from government evaluations of COVID-19 responses: A synthesis (oecd.org)
330 Ministry of Health & Welfare : News & Welfare Services > Press Release View Content (mohw.go.kr)
331 Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
332 COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
333 COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
334 Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
335 Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
336 COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 7, 2021 to 2022) - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
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