Coronavirus (COVID-19) Scotland's Strategic Framework update – February 2022: evidence paper

4. Impact on society

4.1 Introduction

People’s lives have been disrupted in a large range of settings by the measures that were introduced to control the virus. These restricted access to areas of life that help to maintain personal and social wellbeing including: social interactions and gatherings, work and business, access to public services, workplaces, education settings and culture, leisure and tourism activities.

The Scottish Government has collected and analysed a range of primary and secondary data and analysis, to further understand these effects. This developed an account of the impacts from a range of triangulated sources, including: public attitudes and behaviours surveys; administrative data; new research within population subgroups and places; and people’s own accounts.

Experiences of the pandemic are varied, and some people were subject to a greater level of harm, because of their personal circumstances or personal identity, the stage of life they are at or where they live.

Research is ongoing, but some of the available information is presented below.

4.2 Personal wellbeing

There is evidence that the pandemic caused a large amount of psychological distress and worry. Public attitudes polling at the beginning of the pandemic showed a sharp rise in measures of high anxiety, and low happiness^[134]. This picture gradually improved over further time^[135] but negative impacts have been prominent for an extended period of time, and they have not returned to pre-pandemic levels^[136].

In the year ending March 2021, ratings of personal wellbeing in Scotland deteriorated. Levels of life satisfaction, happiness, and the feeling that the things done in life are worthwhile declined, and anxiety increased^[137].

By the end of November 2021, levels of depression and anxiety had improved slightly across the UK, but levels remained higher than the averages that would usually be reported^[140].

The effects of the pandemic on wellbeing have not been felt equally across all social groups. Depression and anxiety have continued to be highest among young adults, people with lower household income, people living with children, those living in urban areas, women, people from ethnic minority groups, and those with a physical health diagnosis^[141].

These differences are not narrowing as the pandemic continues, and this indicates ongoing inequalities in the impact on wellbeing^[142]. The most recent findings suggest that depression and anxiety symptoms sharply increased again in December 2021, as the Omicron variant started to spread in Scotland. This increase was most prominent amongst younger adults^[143].

Other wellbeing measures including life satisfaction and happiness also declined across the UK in early January 2022, although wellbeing overall had improved compared to a similar period last year^[144]. Worry about the Coronavirus situation had fallen in Scotland by mid-January 2022, with an increased optimism that things would get better soon^[145]. Ongoing impacts of the pandemic on wellbeing remain, particularly for the groups mentioned.

4.3 Work

The pandemic has had a significant impact on the working lives of individuals notably around job security, income, finances and workplace location. Worry about jobs and income has increased,^[146] around one in ten lost their jobs or were made redundant as a result of the pandemic,^[147] a significant amount reported lower income compared to pre pandemic levels^[148]. Just over two fifths who are working, reported that they work from home ‘all or some’ of the time^[149].

Around one in ten (11%) either lost their job or were made redundant during the pandemic this was a higher percentage amongst younger people and those from lower household incomes^[150].

For the majority (59%), household income remained the same from May 2020 to March 2021. However, a quarter of people reported their income was lower in March 2021 than before the pandemic^[151]. Since September 2021, there has been a gradual increase in concern around finances, in terms of being able to pay household bills and, to being able to provide for the household which has affected certain subgroups disproportionately^[152]. Those in households with children and aged 25-34 reported lower income than pre-pandemic levels, similarly working-age adults were twice as likely to report concerns around finances over older adults^[153]. Almost a third in the lowest (DE) socio-economic groups were not managing well financially and more likely to suffer from economic challenges due to the reduction in income as a result of furlough or unemployment^[154]. These issues also affect those living alone and disabled people^[155].

A high proportion across the UK (43%) in Dec 2020 reported changes to their work since the beginning of the pandemic, with 31% transitioning into working from home more^[156]. At the end of 2019 around 4% of the Scottish public mainly worked from home^[157].

Survey data indicates that, at present, just over two fifths (43%) of respondents who are working report working from home all or some of the time^[158]. Home working has had some benefits such as greater autonomy and flexibility, more time for family and leisure^[159] and lesser or no commute^[160]. These freedoms have had particular benefit for disabled workers, many of whom had been wanting greater remote/flexible working prior to the pandemic^[161].

Evidence suggests home working has had negative impacts on health, wellbeing and social aspects. For example, there are reports of lower physical activity levels, increase in food consumption and a rise in musculoskeletal problems amongst home workers^[162]. Just under a third self-reported working from home as worse for their wellbeing which was predominantly an issue for those in shared housing^[163]. There is evidence of higher social strain in homes^[164], and disconnection to colleagues due to absence of workplace interaction^[165].

These effects may be felt disproportionally across the population if some have adapted to working from home better than others, for example those with more adequate physical workplace or access to technology^[166].

The sectors most affected by restrictions have the highest share of employment of 16-24 year olds. For example, 33% of employment in the Accommodation and Food Services sector is in the age group 16-24, 24% in retail and 14% in Arts, respectively.

The sectors most impacted by restrictions are those with higher than average proportion of employees earning less than the real living wage (£9.50). Accommodation and food Services have a particularly high proportion, with two thirds of their employees earning less.

Workforce status

While rates of pay will differ depending on type of employment, sector, contract type and other factors, evidence strongly suggests that most employment types considered potentially precarious or flexible are associated with low rates of pay and/or pay insecurity.^[167]

Sectors with less opportunity to work from home have been hardest hit by pandemic restrictions. The Business Insights and Conditions Survey^[168] shows that the share of the workforce working from a designated workspace from 15 December to 9 January 2022) was estimated to be 61%. This share was highest in the Accommodation & Food Services sector, estimated at 77.4%. In contrast, an estimated 68.2% of workers in the Information & Communication industry sector are working from home.

4.4 Cost of living

The UK CPI inflation rate rose to 5.4% in December 2021, its highest rate since 1992 and up from 5.1% in November. There has been a broad based increase in prices across goods and services, particularly in fuel and energy costs for transport and housing, and in the latest month, the cost of food. Further price rises are expected, particularly when Ofgem update the energy price cap in April, which could lead to more households becoming fuel poor. The Bank of England forecast inflation to peak at around 6% in the first half of 2022. Furthermore, other tax increases are scheduled for April such as the rise in National Insurance Rates for employer and employee contributions, and the end of the reduced rate of VAT for hospitality. As such, cost of living challenges are intensifying and UK average weekly earnings fell 1% in real terms (adjusted for inflation) in November – the first annual fall since July 2020. Polling carried out by YouGov for Citizens Advice Scotland found 36% of people couldn’t afford their fuel bills. Of these, 80 per cent cited rising energy costs as a reason, with 65 per cent saying the rising cost of living was a problem^[169].

4.5 Education (or Children and Young People)

Scotland’s children and young people have experienced disruption to education and learning, delays to development and wider harms over three school years. Evidence is now emerging of impacts on the youngest children through to those in further and higher education.

Findings from the third round of the Covid-19 early years resilience and impact survey, published in January 2022, illustrates that Covid-19 and the measures taken to address it have had a negative impact on many young children and their families and that some of these negative effects were exacerbated when protective measures were reintroduced during the autumn and winter of 2021. There was evidence of negative impacts on relationships and development among babies and children and on concentration and learning in primary school aged children. Overall, children in low income families were most affected^[170].

The 2020/21 Achievement of a Curriculum for Excellence Level (ACEL) data published in December 2021 highlighted the impact of the pandemic on literacy and numeracy in primary schools. This year’s data show that the percentage of pupils achieving the expected CfE level in 2020/21 is lower than in 2018/19 for all stages and across all organisers. The size of these decreases range between three and six percentage points and are generally larger than previous changes at national level. The gap between the proportion of primary pupils (combined P1, P4 and P7) from the most and least deprived areas who achieved their expected level in literacy and numeracy has widened since 2018/19 and is now wider than at any point since 2016/17 (the first year for which comparable data is available). Before the pandemic, the year on year trend in the ACEL data was positive.

For young people, there has been a decrease in the percentage of school leavers who were in a positive destination three months after leaving school; 93.3% in 2019/20 compared with 95% in 2018/19 (the lowest since 2014/15 - 93.2%) . Whilst 72.2% of 2019/20 leavers were in Higher or Further Education (the highest rate since consistent records began in 2009/10), the percentage of school leavers in employment decreased from 22.9% in 2018/19 to 16.2% in 2019/20, (the lowest figure on record) and the percentage who were unemployed increased from 4.5% to 6%.

Among those in further and higher education, there is evidence of cumulative impacts on mental health due to a range of issues including isolation and lack of contact with lecturers, tutors and peers. The National Student Survey 2021^[171] showed that only 39% of students at Scottish universities were satisfied that providers had taken sufficient steps to support mental wellbeing during the pandemic.

While online learning has allowed for the continuation of many courses, some students have disengaged with online provision and others have chosen not to take up opportunities. Even though overall activity increased^[172] in the 2020-21 academic year at Scottish colleges, there was a decrease of around 8% in enrolments to their lowest level in 10-years; with much of the decrease occurring in short courses. Courses with a practical component have been particularly adversely affected, and some students have been unable to fulfil mandatory placement elements for some degrees. Among younger students in particular there are potential social skills deficits due to lack of interaction and behavioural issues may increase as a result.

Some of these changes will have knock on effects on employment opportunities for those affected. University^[173] and college statistics^[174] published in 2021 showed a noticeable movement from work to further study, with increases in unemployment. Those leaving SCQF 1-6 courses (typically further education) at College were particularly affected with over a quarter of sector leavers in 2019-20 unemployed or unavailable for work 3 to 6 months after qualifying.

There is also increasing evidence of the wider impacts on children and young people of the pandemic For example, the proportion of Primary 1 children at risk of being overweight or obesity increased by 6.8 percentage points between 2019/20 and 2020/21, having been stable for a number of years prior to this. The most substantial increase was in the proportion of children at risk of obesity. Among children living in the most deprived areas there was an 8.4 percentage point increase between 2019/20 and 2020/21, to 35.7% at risk of overweight or obesity, compared to a 3.6 percentage point increase, to 20.8%, in the least deprived areas

4.6 Loneliness

Loneliness levels have remained high throughout the course of the pandemic, with between 44% to 54% saying they have felt lonely ‘in the past week’.^[175] This is over double pre-pandemic levels, where 21% of people reported experiencing loneliness 2018^[176].

These effects of the pandemic are still being understood and further research will help to highlight the drivers of loneliness in different cases, and the specific effect that the pandemic has had.

Existing data shows that loneliness is higher amongst young adults, people living alone, those with a mental or physical health condition, people with lower household income, those living with children, amongst those from ethnic minority groups, women, and those living in urban areas^[177].

4.7 Social connections

The average number of social contacts that adult Scots have per day has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels at any point over the past 22 months. It has varied to between 2 to 8 contacts. The current average number of social contacts is around 5 per day.^[178] In 2017/2018, the average number of social contacts per day was 10.5.^[179]

Reduced social contacts often means fewer interactions with people in broader social circles, i.e. the ‘weaker’ ties (colleagues, neighbours, acquaintances, etc.). In a public health crisis, these “non-essential” contacts may be vulnerable to weakening through social distancing measures. Research from Glasgow University’s Institute for Health and Wellbeing, highlights the social value of these ‘weaker’ ties, that are usually more diverse than most people’s main social core, and help to guarantee social capital and relationships that can translate into positive education, employment, health, and other societal wellbeing outcomes^[180].

There is growing awareness that relational mechanisms, i.e. the quality and quantity of social contacts, can affect physical and mental health outcomes, as seen with GPs making social prescriptions. Social isolation borne from the pandemic and control measures is an example of how health and social harms intersect (harms 2 and 3 in the Scottish Government’s Four Harms framework).

4.8 Cultural engagement

Although a large majority engaged with culture and heritage during the pandemic, much of this activity was remote, or not in a shared space setting, or based on physical attendance.

Information about cultural participation during the pandemic is available from the Scottish Household Survey^[181]. These data were collected during October 2020 and January to March 2021. The results of the SHS 2020 telephone survey are not directly comparable to SHS results for previous years, because the data collection method changed during the pandemic.

In this research, although 86% of adults had been culturally engaged in the last year – this includes remote participation and also reading - and less than half had ‘attended’ a cultural activity. When excluding cinema, only 39% of adults had attended a cultural event or place of culture in the last year.

Cultural participation also varies by deprivation, and is lower in more deprived areas. 36% of adults living in the 20% most deprived areas had attended a cultural event or place of culture, including the cinema, compared to 53% of adults living in the 20% least deprived areas.

Research carried out in 2020 by Creative Scotland^[182], showed that most of the population had missed cultural events and venues during the lockdown and that there was an appetite for these activities. This work anticipated a slower potential recovery than other parts of the economy, and also dependent on the nature of the art forms, and the venues where work is presented.

4.9 Summary

The pandemic has disrupted social life in areas that are important for maintaining current and future wellbeing, personally, in neighbourhoods and communities, and in wider society.

Prior to the pandemic, a wide range of inequalities already existed across the Scottish population and many of these harms have been exacerbated. The impacts have been worse for the places in Scotland, and subgroups of the population who were previously disadvantaged, or at important life-stages.

There is a future scenario within the pandemic, where a small number of protective measures are needed. This situation may be consistent with the provision of a wider range of social goods and opportunities for wellbeing than were available during the period when the most stringent restrictions were in force. This may include a more permanent return to the work, education, culture and social opportunities that create and maintain social and human capital.

In this situation worry and anxiety about the virus and the future may impact people’s personal and social wellbeing, if it is disproportionate to the level of threat. This may lead to the further erosion of social relationships, social cohesion and opportunity. Messaging around the lifting of measures and restrictions should recognise the different needs and level of risk of different groups of the population.

A different scenario – with fewer or no required protective measures - may still include challenges to recover and maintain people’s wellbeing across societal wellbeing outcomes. It may also have unintended negative consequences, including those who are or live with people who are clinically vulnerable.

The pandemic has led to changes in behaviours and expectations that will have a legacy after the pandemic, and society will be different in important, and uncertain ways. This requires careful sense making of public attitudes, behaviours and expectations.

An understanding of societal wellbeing, public behaviours and attitudes towards current worries and future priorities, will help to identify where further support is needed. As well as administrative and behavioural data, it is likely that ground-level research, learning from other jurisdictions, inclusive participatory data gathering, and space for reflective planning, will help ensure a societal recovery from the pandemic.