Examining outcomes associated with Social Security Scotland spending: an evidence synthesis

2. Introduction

Purpose of this report

This report synthesises evidence in relation to the outcomes associated with Scottish Government spending on devolved Social Security Scotland benefits. It considers the available evidence on eight different but interconnected outcomes: child poverty; reducing poverty and protecting households; income inequality; health; wellbeing; education and social participation; economy and employment; and protected characteristics.

The report provides a commentary around the broader impact of social security spending, on the outcomes for benefit recipients and in creating a fairer Scotland. It also considers how the way in which social security benefit spending is delivered can amplify, or reduce, the potential impacts of the spending itself.

Findings from the synthesis brings together in one place - for the first time - existing evidence about the outcomes of spend on new and devolved benefits administered by Scotland. It also identifies opportunities to develop the evidence base further and highlights where analytical work is currently underway.

Methodology

This report focusses on evidence relating to all of the benefits delivered by Social Security Scotland, including those replacing benefits previously delivered by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), but has a particular emphasis on understanding the contribution of the ten unique benefits delivered only in Scotland. These are set out in the background section.

The evidence synthesis was undertaken between November 2023 and January 2024. The work involved a review of 138 different relevant evidence sources. These were collated with the support of Scottish Government analysts working in different parts of government and a Scottish Government library search for academic and other literature focusing on the time period 2017-2023. The review also drew on logic models for the new benefits, where available, to identify short, medium and long term outcomes relevant to the wider outcomes outlined in Section 4.

The literature search conducted by the Scottish Government Library covered a wide range of resources, including: Idox, The Knowledge Exchange database, KandE, Knowledge Network, Policy Commons, ProQuest, OCLC FirstSearch, Social Care Online, Transport Research International Documentation, British Library Catalogue, National Library of Scotland Catalogue, and Google Searches (Google Scholar, Advanced and Custom searches). Evidence sources reviewed included evaluations commissioned by the Scottish Government; benefit take up reports; official statistics; Clients Surveys and Experience Panel reports; Audit Scotland reports; annual reports; impact assessments and business cases for each of the benefits. Reports from research organisations, think tanks and academic sources including the Fraser of Allander Institute, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, and the Institute of Fiscal Studies were also reviewed.

Evidence that met the inclusion criteria for the work was then sifted and reviewed, with the quality of each source rated and the strengths and limitations of each of the sources identified. A small expert analytical working group was set up in September 2023 and met weekly to offer advice and guidance over the course of the project. The group included analysts from the Scottish Government – Office of the Chief Social Policy Adviser, Communities Analysis Division, Social Security Policy - and from Social Security Scotland. The group also consulted analysts from Public Health Scotland around the evidence on health outcomes. The evidence synthesis was also supported by a talented and enthusiastic PhD intern, Jud Lowes, from the University of Stirling.

Limitations

This evidence synthesis was completed in a short timescale, and while it sought to be comprehensive, it is not intended to be exhaustive. The review did not include a formal critical appraisal of the evidence.

The evidence synthesis does not consider factors which relate to the effectiveness of or value for money of Social Security Scotland delivery and operations, as this is partly covered by Social Security Scotland corporate reporting requirements including in its annual accounts and report. Neither does it consider how outcomes associated with social security spending in Scotland compare to those in the rest of the UK.

Finally, it should be noted that social security policy and practice in Scotland is far from static and some of the changes resulting from more recent policy changes such as the expansion of the SCP to include all children up to 16 years and the increase in its rate to £25 are not yet evidenced. This is partly due to the natural time lag between when policy changes are made and when data and evidence covering the required periods becomes available.