Exports statistics Scotland 2021

New data source: comparison with previously published estimates

A previously unused data source was included in this ESS 2021 publication.

Several sources are used to obtain business turnovers, which are used to estimate the value of exports. Prior to ESS 2021, one of the main sources of turnover was the ONS Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR).

The delay in the ESS 2021 publication timetable meant that for this publication turnover could be sourced from the Scottish Annual Business Statistics (SABS) where possible. SABS provides turnover data for the specific survey year in question, whereas IDBR turnover used in previous publications could be time lagged as it was updated from various sources. This was important to help pick up the impacts of both the pandemic and the EU exit on businesses turnover and exports during 2020 and 2021. More detail on the IDBR and SABS is provided in the methodology note.

Since ESS estimates export value as a proportion of a business’ turnover, using a different turnover value will change the resulting export value. This means that the estimated values for the year 2019 in this publication are different from those published in ESS 2019. The direction and size of the differences vary depending on the destination and industry, but overall, the revised estimates for Scotland’s total exports (international and rest of the UK) for 2019 were approximately £5 billion lower in this publication than in ESS 2019.

It is important to note that the estimates in this publication are not comparable with the previous estimates from the ESS 2019 publication for earlier years.

The estimated value for Scotland’s international exports for 2019 was similar in the two publications. However, there has been a bigger impact on exports to the rest of the UK. Using the new data source has resulted in a decrease of 10.3% in the estimate for Scotland’s exports to the rest of the UK, which dropped from £52.0 billion to £46.7 billion.

Figure 15. The biggest difference in the estimated export values for 2019 was for exports to the rest of the UK

Estimated value of Scotland’s exports for 2019, as shown in ESS 2019 and ESS 2021

The drop in the estimated export value to the rest of the UK for the year 2019 between the two publications is driven by the estimate for exports of utilities dropping by half (down £3.7 billion), from £7.3 billion in ESS 2019 to £3.7 billion in ESS 2021.

More detail on the impact of these changes on previously published estimates for the year 2019 is provided in the methodology note.