Factors Influencing Rural Migration Decisions in Scotland: An Analysis of the Evidence

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 The need for sustainable rural populations is key to the Scottish Government's target of sustainable economic growth. Migration is a major factor that can affect the sustainability of rural populations, and so the issues surrounding it need to be carefully addressed. There is a large volume of research on rural migration in Scotland, with many studies offering insights into the migration decisions of specific population groups. However, there has been no recent attempt to draw together the findings from these studies, assess their reliability, and ascertain their implications for policy development and delivery. The following study was designed in order to address this gap.

1.2 As the Scottish Government's overarching purpose, sustainable economic growth is a key concern for the Cabinet Secretary for Rural Affairs and the Environment. In 2008, he established an independent Rural Development Council ( RDC) to provide advice on a range of issues relevant to the prosperity of rural Scotland. This literature review was designed as part of a broad evidence gathering work stream, to offer analytical support to the RDC as they prepared their advice. The RDC's report, 'Speak Up for Rural Scotland,' was published for consultation on 2 August 2010 ².

1.3 An initial scoping study indicated that the volume of literature available in relation to rural migration in Scotland was too broad to be analysed meaningfully in the study's short timescale. Therefore, following discussions with policy colleagues it was decided that this study should focus on the age and life stage ³ related factors that contribute to individuals' rural migration decisions. This focus was chosen for two reasons. Firstly, several key pieces of literature identify age imbalances as a key issue for rural communities ^9,33,32, as do national statistics from General Registry Office for Scotland ( GROS) ⁴. Secondly, several studies point to the influence that policy could have on many of the factors contributing to different age groups' migration decisions ^10,8,9.

1.4 The initial scoping study also suggested a focus on individual experiences of rural migration, rather than picking out key trends. This is because the majority of the literature consists of small-scale, qualitative studies that reflect participants' opinions, memories and (occasionally) post-rationalisation. The views expressed by individuals are extremely subjective, being dependent on their personal circumstances and the rural area they live in. Indeed, one person's motivation for leaving a rural are might often be another's reason for moving in.

Demographic Background

1.5 Statistics from the General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS) show varying levels of net migration ⁵ for rural areas between 2005/06 and 2007/08 ⁶, ranging from 8,808 in 2005/06 to 15,016 in 2006/07. The average annual net migration over the three-year period from 2005/06 to 2007/08 was 12,037 for remote and accessible rural areas and 10,607 for the rest of Scotland. For more details on this, please refer to Figure 1.

1.6 As a percentage of the total population, migration has a bigger impact on remote and accessible rural areas than on the rest of Scotland. For example, in 2007/08 the net migration rate was 0.7% of the total population in remote rural areas, 1.6% in accessible rural areas, and 0.2% of the population in the rest of Scotland ²⁴. For more details on this, please refer to Figure 2.

1.7 The GROS figures also show a disparity between the net migration rates for remote and accessible rural areas ⁷, with accessible rural areas usually experiencing a greater inflow of migrants. For example, in 2007/08, the net migration rate of 0-15 year olds was 2.4% of the population in accessible rural areas, but only 1.5% of the population in remote rural areas. There are similar patterns for the 25-34 and 35-44 age groups. This is the case for all age groups apart from 16-24 year olds, where more people are moving out than are moving into rural areas. The figures show that more people in this age group are moving out of remote rural areas than are moving out of accessible areas, which indicates the difference between the two types of area and, by implication, the different factors affecting migration decisions. For details, please refer to Figure 2.

1.8 Other informative age-related trends displayed in Figure 2 include:

• a large increase in the net migration of 0-15 year olds across rural Scotland between 2005-06 and 2006-07, with only a small decrease the following year - this rise in 0-15 year olds is particularly prominent in accessible rural areas;
• higher rates of net migration amongst people aged 35 and over when compared to the rest of Scotland; and
• higher net migration for people of pensionable age in rural areas, when compared to the rest of Scotland.

1.9 Given these trends, the review has paid particular attention to the age-related factors thought to influence individuals' rural migration decisions. It has also been careful to consider each age group when providing suggestions for policy makers.

Figure 1 Net migration by Urban Rural Classification and age group, 2005-2008

Figure 2 Net migration rates as a percentage of the total population by Urban Rural Classification and age group, 2005-2008

Source: General Register Office for Scotland ( GROS)

* =rates less than 0.05%