Factors Influencing Rural Migration Decisions in Scotland: An Analysis of the Evidence

8 RESEARCH GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH NEEDS

Research Priorities

Quantitative Research Needs

8.1 This literature review highlights a large gap in statistically reliable research data in relation to rural migration. This points to the importance of undertaking more large-scale, statistically robust studies examining rural migration at a national level. Such research is crucial for picking out broad trends and for making inferences about the main 'push', 'pull', 'stay' and 'return' factors that policy could address. Moreover, such research could also illustrate how these factors vary at a more regional level, and thus allow for more targeted and effective policy-making ^30,18. In particular, it could identify key differences between accessible and remote rural areas, which are hinted at by many of the qualitative studies used here. Lastly, such research could help ascertain whether the perceptions mentioned by respondents in more qualitative studies are supported by statistically reliable data. However, the feasibility of such studies will depend on their cost relative to the value they can be expected to add.

8.2 The evidence base also suggests a need for more segmentation in research that examines rural migration decisions. This could help improve our awareness of when and why certain 'push' factors become 'pull' factors. It could also help identify the demographic characteristics of 'in', 'out' and 'return' migrants, as well as those who choose to stay in rural areas. Having such information would enable policy to target their initiatives at the most relevant population groups, and so be more cost effective in facilitating sustainable rural populations.

8.3 It would also be useful to have a better idea of the impacts that in-migration can have on rural communities, and on the migrants themselves. A better grasp of the tensions and issues that arise as a result of rural migration could allow for more finely tuned initiatives to support and encourage in-migrants, and facilitate their integration into rural areas. This could include exploring the factors that help in-migrants to feel more socially included in rural communities, which may be a key determinant for their sustainability.

8.4 This review also highlights a need to evaluate policiesthat address the key issues associated with rural migration. Therefore, there is a need for more evaluations of current and future policy developments in this area. Such evaluations will be key for building on past successes and developing more effective ways of addressing the key issues surrounding rural migration.

8.5 In all the above cases, it will be crucial for research to use a definition of rural Scotland that is compatible with the Scottish Government's Urban-Rural Classification. Within this, it will be particularly important to distinguish between remote and accessible rural areas, as this is where many of the key distinctions between rural migration issues lie.

Qualitative research needs

8.6 This review has identified an apparent shortage of up to date studies examining older people's rural migration decisions. Understanding what factors motivate older people to leave, stay, move to or return to rural areas may be crucial for future policy development, particularly given the rapidly ageing nature of many rural populations.

8.7 The findings from this literature review also highlight the importance of understanding the motivations and expectations of return migrants to rural Scotland. Although this review has pointed to job creation as a crucial enabling factor for return migration, it would be useful to know what other factors play a role in motivating people to move to rural areas, and in helping them feel satisfied with their move. Understanding these factors could help policy develop and facilitate highly effective initiatives for encouraging more return-migration.

Other Potential Areas for Future Research

8.8 The theoretical and conceptual frameworks underpinning the evidence base on rural migration, and consequently the types of rural migration investigated, appear to be quite limited in the evidence base used for this review. For example, it could be useful to undertake research based on the concept of lifetime mobility: the idea that people often make multiple moves throughout their lifetime and are motivated by different factors at different stages ³⁰. Moreover, it could be helpful to examine the multiple incidences of migration (hinted at in this review) that occur between different rural areas, rather than simply focusing on rural-urban migration ²⁸.

8.9 The initial scoping study for this review suggested additional motivations and issues that may influence the rural migration decisions of specific groups, such as women, those from different income bands, A8 migrants, people from an ethnic minority group, people from LGBT groups, and those with special needs. More research on this would be useful for developing a fuller picture of rural migration decisions. This need is reflect by some of the literature used in this review. For example, several sources suggest there could be significant gender differences in relation to rural migration choices ¹⁷³⁰, and another source suggests that socio-economic or class differences might be a useful area for exploration ¹⁶.

8.10 In addition, much of the existing evidence base seems skewed towards younger people - perhaps at the expense of older people, for whom considerably fewer studies were identified. It also appears to be skewed towards the Highlands and Islands at the expense of other rural areas in Scotland. It would therefore be useful if future research tried to present a more balanced picture of rural migration in Scotland. However, a statistically robust survey of Scotland as a whole, such as that suggested in the Research Priorities section, would hopefully rectify any imbalances.

8.11 It could also be useful to look at the impacts of UK and European policy on rural migration. Scotland-wide surveys are already examining international migration at a national level, but it would be helpful to see how this manifests itself in rural areas more specifically.

8.12 It might also be helpful to get an idea of the priorities for rural migration policy, as suggested by local residents and/or those who have left rural areas.

8.13 Finally, this review has only explored rural issues that are explicitly mentioned in the context of migration. Clearly , issues such as rural housing shortages, transport and the provision of rural services are much broader, and much may have been published on these without an explicit mention of rural migration. Perhaps, if this review prompts particular interest in a few specific issues, these could be explored in more depth by conducting broader searches that go beyond the specific context of Scottish rural migration.