Fair Start Scotland: economic evaluation

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government, 2019. Fair Start Scotland Evaluation Report 2: Overview of year 1

2. Scottish Government, 2020. Fair Start Scotland Evaluation Report 3: Overview of year 2

3. Scottish Government, 2021. Fair Start Scotland Evaluation Report 4: Overview of year 3

4. At the end of the third year, it was clarified to the providers that the 26- and 52-weeks outcomes can be standalone outcomes that no longer need to include the initial 13-week period within the 26- or 52-week period. This is likely to result in a slight increase in costs.

5. DWP, 2020. The Work Programme: a quantitative impact assessment.

6. DWP, 2016. Sector-based work academies: a quantitative impact assessment

7. DWP, 2016. Work experience: a quantitative impact assessment

8. DWP, 2012. Impacts and costs and benefits of the Future Jobs Fund

9. Fujiwara, D., 2010. The Department for Work and Pensions Social Cost-Benefit Analysis framework. Working Paper no. 86

10. HM Treasury, 2020. The Green Book: appraisal and evaluation in central government

11. Public Health England, 2017. Movement Into Employment: Return on Investment Tool: Estimation of benefits from moving an individual from unemployment into sustainable employment

12. At the time of publication, the latest available data goes up to June 2021. However, these were not used in the CBA.

13. It is important to note that, while the survey provides the best estimate given the long timeline, it is based on a very small sample relative to the management information.

14. Public finance perspective includes increase in tax revenue and reduction in healthcare costs as benefits and programme expenditure as cost. Participants' perspective includes increase in wage as a benefit and reduction in UC, increased tax, and increased travel and childcare costs as costs. Society's perspective includes increase in output and reduction in healthcare and operational costs as benefits and programme expenditure and societal impacts from increased travel as costs.

15. Cribb, J., Hood, A. and Joyce, R., 2017. Entering the labour market in a weak economy: scarring and insurance. IFS Working Papers.

16. Start refers to participants who were referred to the service and recorded a start date on Fair Start Scotland. Job start refers to participants who joined the service and were able to find a job (recorded a job start date) regardless of how long the job lasted for.

17. Percentage of Core, Advanced, and Intense participants is based on older data than the rest of the table. However, they are not likely to significantly change with the new data.

18. Job outcomes are only shown for the 2018 cohort as it is too early to capture the full outcomes for the 2019 and 2020 cohort.

19. Scottish Government, 2021. Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: statistical summary.

20. While the Work Programme also uses the DWP SCBA model, it combines it with an Intention to Treat methodology. The BCR shown for the Work Programme is based on three-year extrapolation. This is to make it comparable to the Fair Start Scotland measure, which looks at benefits over three years.

21. DWP 2020. The Work Programme: A quantitative impact assessment

22. Not all payment groups of the Work Programme are mandatory.

23. Scottish Government, 2019. Fair Start Scotland Evaluation Report 2: Overview of year 1

24. The Work and Health Programme becomes mandatory if claimant reaches 24 months in long-term unemployment.

25. Except for 2017/2018 where Work and Health Programme operated only in England and Wales

26. Early access in Work and Health Programme refers to people who may need additional support to move into employment and are in one of a number of priority groups (e.g., homeless, ex-armed forces, care leavers, refugees, etc.)

27. DWP, 2020. Work Choice statistics: number of starts, referrals and job outcomes

28. DWP, 2021. Work and Health Programme statistics to February 2021

29. Refers to the average number of unemployed people in England and Wales during years of operation (2017-2020). Retrieved for England and for Wales respectively from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycmy/lms https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycmz/lms

30. Refers to the average number of unemployed people in Scotland during years of operation (2018-2020). Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/ycna/lms

31. These numbers correspond to the years 2013-2018. Previous years are not considered as number of unemployed people with disabilities are only comparable after 2013.

32. Refers to the average number of unemployed people with disabilities in the whole of the UK, including Scotland. Since the Programme only operated in England and Wales, the percentage is likely understated. Both UK-wide unemployment figures are retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/labourmarketstatusofdisabledpeoplea08

33. This refers to the number of unemployed people in Scotland in the year 2020/2021. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/news/disabled-people-and-the-labour-market-in-scotland/

34. Scottish Government, 2009. Evaluation of the Working for Families Fund (2004-2008)

35. Scottish Government, 2005. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation/inflation-calculator

36. Scottish Government, 2021. Labour market monthly briefing: July 2021

37. On average, those on temporary contract make up 5% of the working population in Scotland. Scottish Government, 2021. Labour market monthly briefing: July 2021. https://www.gov.scot/publications/labour-market-monthly-briefing-july-2021/

38. It is important to note that the survey results, as mentioned, show that participants in the 2018 cohort (the longest observed cohort) do eventually settle and stay in one job for a long period of time (1.5 years on average over 3 years).

39. Health Foundation, 2021. Unemployment and mental health

40. Recent studies have in fact shown that being in a bad quality job is as bad for your health as being unemployed. Chandola, T. and Zhang, N., 2018. Re-employment, job quality, health and allostatic load biomarkers: prospective evidence from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. International journal of epidemiology, 47(1), pp.47-57. https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/47/1/47/4079898?login=true

41. This is based on the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale, which was not measured for participants in subsequent Waves of the survey.

42. Some of the columns don't add up to a hundred because some participants replied "I don't know" or "prefer not to say" to the question.

43. Self-efficacy refers to an individual's belief in their own ability to organise and carry out actions in order to successfully achieve a task. It is based on a person's perceptions and beliefs about themselves

44. DWP typically uses around 6 or 7 groups.

45. Having LCWRA means you will not have to work or do anything to prepare for work. Having LCW means you will not have to work, but you might need to do some work-related activities.

46. Since only 14 participants care for severely disabled persons, this dimension will not be considered for group formulation.

47. This refers to money in the bank, cash over £6,000 reduces Universal Credit amount and claimants are illegible above £16,000.

48. As mentioned previously, this amounts to £508 less in NHS costs per year for non-ESA programme participants and £1,016 for ESA programme participants.

49. Public Health England, 2017. Movement Into Employment: Return on Investment Tool: Estimation of benefits from moving an individual from unemployment into sustainable employment

50. Scottish Government, 2021. Scotland's Devolved Employment Services: statistical summary

51. Groups 12, 16, and 18 are left out because they have zero participants.