Fair Start Scotland: evaluation report 4 - year 3 overview

3. Reach of Services: April 2020 – March 2021

This chapter describes who was reached by FSS in the third year of its delivery, using various data sources including sociodemographic information on those who joined the FSS service between April 2020 and March 2021. The chapter begins by addressing the following questions:

• What were the characteristics of those who started on FSS in the third year and how does this compare with the overall unemployed population in Scotland?
• Have there been any changes in the characteristics of FSS participants over the first, second and third year?

To address the above questions, the analyses focus on the protected characteristics as defined by the Equality Act 2010 including age and gender and the FSS early entry groups. The data sources used here include Scotland's Devolved Employment Services statistical reports and the Office of National Statistics (ONS) Annual Population Survey (APS).

Further, the chapter describes additional characteristics of FSS participants including level of education, time out of work and additional information on priority family groups^[6] based on the telephone survey with a representative sample of Year 3 FSS participants. The chapter finishes with an overview of what worked well, what could be improved and what is being done to make improvements.

It should be noted that there has been a considerable increase in the amount of missing data with regards to participants key characteristics this year. This has been linked to the data being collected over the phone by providers rather than in person, with early feedback suggesting that some participants do not feel comfortable disclosing protected characteristics information over the phone. As such interpretation of data for Year 3 should be treated with a degree of caution.

3.1 What were the characteristics of those who joined FSS in the third year and how does this compare with the overall unemployed population in Scotland?

Fair Start Scotland received 14,000 referrals in the third year of the service, of which, 74% joined the service.^[7] In total, 10,357 people started on the service in Year 3.

The number of referrals was lower by 18 percentage points compared with the second year, and by 21 percentage points compared with the first year of FSS delivery. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and consequently the temporary pause in referrals from DWP between April and June 2020 were the primary reasons for this decrease compared with previous years.

Although the number of people who started on FSS in the third year was lower compared with the second year, the conversion rate of those referred who went on to start was higher by 5 percentage points than in the second year and by 16 percentage points than in the first year of FSS delivery. This means that more people who were referred to FSS started on the service compared with the first and second year of delivery.

Figure 1 shows that compared with the overall unemployed population in Scotland, the third year of FSS had:

• A lower proportion of women
• A lower proportion of minority ethnic individuals
• A lower proportion of people aged 16-24
• A lower proportion of people aged 50-64
• A lower proportion of people from rural areas
• A higher proportion of people aged 25-34
• A higher proportion of people from 15% most deprived areas
• A higher proportion of people with disabilities
• A higher proportion of people with disabilities who were long term unemployed

Source: Annual Population Survey Person dataset, ONS (Apr 20-Mar 21 dataset), FSS Management Information (MI) data including "Fair Start Scotland Year 3 Evaluation and Annual Reports: Accompanying Statistics" https://www.gov.scot/publications/fair-start-scotland-year-three-evaluation-and-annual-reports-accompanying-statistics

* APS data report 50-64 age group rather than 50+

While there are currently no reliable data sources on the proportion of the unemployed population in Scotland who are lone parents, are care experienced, are refugees or have convictions, the shares of these groups among those who joined the FSS in the third year were as follows:

• Care experienced: 4%
• Lone parents: 9%
• Refugees: 2%
• Have convictions: 9%

3.2 Have there been any changes in the characteristics of FSS participants over the first, second and third years?

Figure 2 compares the key characteristics of FSS participants across the first three years of service delivery. From this we can see that, compared with the previous two years, in the third year the proportion of women and the proportion of young people (aged: 16-24 and 25-34 years) has increased. The proportion of disabled people, those who were disabled and unemployed for 2+ years, those living in the 15% most deprived areas and those aged 50 or more has decreased in the third year compared with previous years.

Source: FSS Management Information (MI) data including "Fair Start Scotland Year 3 Evaluation and Annual Reports: Accompanying Statistics" https://www.gov.scot/publications/fair-start-scotland-year-three-evaluation-and-annual-reports-accompanying-statistics

* There was a considerable amount of missing data in the third year especially with regards to ethnicity.

3.3 Additional information on characteristics of FSS participants from third year

This section provides additional information on the characteristics of third year FSS participants based on the data provided through a telephone survey with a representative sample of Year 3 FSS participants.^[8] The telephone survey focused on collecting information on FSS participants' characteristics that were not available through Management Information data including level of education and whether participants were members of a priority family group.

The telephone survey also gathered information on the minority ethnic status of FSS participants. As there was a significant amount of missing data with regards to this characteristic in the Management Information data for the third year of FSS, the data from the telephone survey can help to provide more of a complete picture on the minority ethnic status of FSS participants.

Figure 3 shows the distribution of the highest level of qualification achieved by Year 3 participants. Around three quarters of FSS participants (77%) held National 1-5 or an equivalent qualification or above, with around one quarter (26%) having obtained the highest qualification level of Level 8+ (including degree or above, Higher National Diploma, SVQ4 or SVQ5). 12% had no formal qualification. Year 3 FSS participants were just as likely to hold any formal qualification as those in the previous years, but the qualification they held was likely to be of a higher level compared with the previous years.

Source: IFF Research telephone survey of FSS customers: H3: What is the highest level of qualification that you have achieved? Base: All 2020 cohort (663)

Around a fifth (19%) of Year 3 FSS participants were members of a priority family group, most commonly these were parents with a disability or a health condition (12%). Figure 4 shows members of priority family groups as a proportion of the Year 3 FSS participants. The makeup of Year 2 and 3 FSS participants were similar. In the second year of FSS, 21% of participants belonged to at least one priority family group, of which 13% were parents with a disability or a health condition, 11% were lone parents, 2% were members of a family with three or more children and 4% were parents from minority ethnic group.^[9]

Source: IFF Research telephone survey of FSS customers, Base: 2020 cohort (663)

Figure 5 shows the breakdown of minority ethnic groups for Year 3 FSS participants. With regards to minority ethnic status, the telephone survey indicated that the majority of Year 3 FSS participants were white (86%) and 14% were from minority ethnic groups. Compared with previous years, there was an increase in participation amongst people from minority ethnic groups of 8 percentage points compared with the first and 7 percentage points compared with the second year of FSS. This stands in contrast to the Management Information data collected by the service and could reflect a lack of willingness to disclose information to providers on the part of participants.

Source: IFF Research telephone survey of FSS customers: H4_W3. Which of the following best describes your ethnic background? Base: All 2020 cohort who agreed to provide demographic details (597).

What worked well?

The proportion of individuals referred to FSS who then go on to engage with the service has improved compared to previous years.

FSS also continues to reach participants with a broad range of social and economic characteristics, including those that may face additional barriers to employment.

Proportions of women and young people (aged 16-24) joining FSS were higher in Year 3 than in Year 2, which was identified as an area for improvement in previous evaluation reports.

Telephone survey results indicate that just under a fifth of FSS participants are part of priority family groups that have a higher than average risk of child poverty.

What were the challenges? / How could we improve?

While there has been some improvement, individuals from certain backgrounds with known barriers to employment continue to be underrepresented in FSS. Whilst recognising that SG funds specialist employability support for younger people in particular there is still scope to further improve on the proportions of women and rural residents who are engaging with FSS services. As there is conflicting evidence on the proportions of people from minority ethnic groups joining the service this is an issue that will need ongoing monitoring.

Furthermore there is an emerging pattern of declining engagement from those with the most significant barriers across the three years of delivery, including those with disabilities, the long term unemployed and those from more deprived parts of the country.

What is Scottish Government doing?

We recognise that a significant impact of COVID-19 has been the way in which it has affected the willingness and ability of more vulnerable people who may have been shielding to engage with public services during lockdown and beyond.

In addition to the new eligibility changes that we made in Year 3 and in response to the COVID-19 labour market challenges, we redefined the entry point for long term unemployment from 24 months to 12 months, thereby providing earlier access to Fair Start Scotland support for the long term unemployed.

We are also engaging with other Scottish Government teams including Health and Social Care, responsible for supporting those at highest risk from COVID-19 to better understand how Fair Start Scotland can best provide employment support to these citizens.

As part of our Continuous Improvement activity, service providers are implementing Action Plans and we are introducing "test and learn" pilots to improve engagement with underrepresented groups, including people with convictions, vulnerable women, minority ethnic groups and those with health conditions and disabilities who would benefit from specialist support. Many of these pilots are already underway and we will report on our learning once complete