Fair Start Scotland: evaluation report 4 - year 3 overview

8. Moving towards work

This chapter focuses on analysis of the number of FSS participants who started work as well as providing evidence on the characteristics of the jobs that participants have moved into.

The chapter starts by describing the MI data for job starts and for 3, 6 and 12 month outcomes, for FSS participants overall and for different demographic groups. It then moves on to describe the findings from the telephone survey on job starts and on various employment characteristics, such as type of contract or hours worked. It also describes findings from data collected by FSS providers regarding earnings in relation to the National Living Wage, as well as hours worked.

The chapter finishes by looking at the role of FSS supporting participants in overcoming barriers to work and at the Job Search Self Efficacy Index scores of surveyed participants to explore the impact of FSS on progression into and towards work.

8.1 Who started (and sustained) work? - MI data

Not enough time has passed to be able to reliably assess the employment outcomes for FSS participants who started on the service in the third year. This is because enough time must pass from when the person joined the service to be able to say if they started a job during the 12 months (and in some cases 18 months) pre-employment support period and then even more time must pass to be able to tell if sustained employment for 3, 6 and 12 months has been achieved.

For this reason, this section presents findings on employment outcomes only for those FSS participants for whom enough time has elapsed to be able to assess if they achieved a specific job outcome. This means the majority of people included in the analyses started on FSS in the first or in the second year of its delivery.

In total, 35% of those who started on FSS had started a job at the point of reporting. Further, 23% of those who started on FSS sustained employment for at least 3 months, 18% sustained employment for at least 6 months and 15% sustained employment for at least 12 months.^[16]

Figure 11-Figure 14 show employment outcomes for different demographic groups among FSS participants.

Compared with FSS participants overall, a lower proportion of participants who had a long term health condition that limited them a lot, lone parents, those with convictions, those unemployed for 2+ years and those unemployed for 2+ years and disabled started a job after joining FSS. There was no difference for women and men for job starts.

Source: Management Information (MI) data

* Please note that at the time of writing this report the near final figures for job starts were available up to the end of June 2020 (April - June 2020 quarter)

** LTHC - Long Term Health Condition

Compared to all FSS participants, a lower proportion of participants who had a long term health condition that limited them a lot, those with convictions, those unemployed for 2+ years and those unemployed for 2+ years and disabled sustained employment for 3 months.

Source: Management Information (MI) data

* Please note that at the time of writing this report the near final figures for three month job outcomes were available up to the end of March 2020 (January - March 2020 quarter)

** LTHC - Long Term Health Condition

Similar to 3 month job outcomes a lower proportion of participants who had a long term health condition that limited them a lot, those with convictions, those unemployed for 2+ years and those unemployed for 2+ years and disabled sustained employment for 6 months compared to FSS participants overall.

Source: Management Information (MI) data

* Please note that at the time of writing this report the near final figures for six month job outcomes were available the end of December 2019 (October - December 2019 quarter)

** LTHC - Long Term Health Condition

For 12 month employment outcomes, a lower proportion of those who had a long term health condition that limited them a lot, those with convictions, refugees, those unemployed for 2+ years and those unemployed for 2+ years and disabled than FSS participants overall.

Source: Management Information (MI) data

* Please note that at the time of writing this report the near final figures for six month job outcomes were available to the end of June 2019 (April - June 2019 quarter)

** LTHC - Long Term Health Condition

8.2 Who started (and sustained) work? - Telephone survey data

The telephone survey participants were asked about their work status, including whether they were in work as well as what were their hourly earnings, hours worked (full-time vs. part time), type of contract, profession, and whether the COVID-19 pandemic impacted their employment.

At the time of the survey, 38% of Year 3 participants reported that they were in work. It is worth noting that this fits well with findings on job outcome rates recorded in the management information data.

Figure 15 shows the types of occupation for those survey respondents who were in work. The types of occupation are organised drawing on the Office for National Statistic (ONS) classification starting from least skilled professions at the top and moving onto more skilled professions at the bottom. The most common profession was elementary occupations^[17] (28%), followed by sales and customer service occupation (16%) and caring, leisure and other service occupation (14%).

Source: IFF Research telephone survey of FSS customers. Taken from collating and coding answers from A5: What is/was your job title? And A6: What do/did you mainly do in your job? Base: 2020 cohort that were employed, self-employed or had worked in the last week (247).

* Please note that the categories and the associated values presented in this table are slightly different to the outline of occupations groups for those FSS who were in work presented in the Economic Evaluations, this is dues to a slightly different approach to the categorisations of occupations adopted in the telephone survey and the economic evaluation

Those survey respondents who were in work were asked about their earnings. One in seven participants (14%) was earning below the National Living Wage.^[18] The majority (76%) was earning above the National Living Wage, with 42% of participants earning between £9.31 - £15.00 per hour. Those aged 16-24 were more likely than average to earn less than £8.21 than participants overall (24% compared with 11% overall). Compared with the second year of FSS delivery there has been an increase in participants earning above the National Living Wage (from 61% in the second year to 76% in the third year).

As part of the telephone survey, respondents were asked about the number of hours they worked in the past week. This showed that of the Year 3 FSS participants 61% worked 30 or more hours, 23% worked between 16 and 29 hours and the remaining 10% worked fewer than 16 hours per week.

The telephone survey respondents were also asked about the type of employment contract they held. More than four in ten (43%) had a permanent employment contract and a third (33%) had a temporary contract. One in ten (10%) were employed on zero hours contracts and a further 8% were self-employed. Those who were white were more likely to be employed on a permanent contract than minority ethnic participants (47% compared with 30%) and men were more likely than women to be self-employed (12% compared with 4%).

Finally, the telephone survey respondents were asked about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their employment situation. One third (34%) indicated that the COVID-19 pandemic impacted their employment situation in some way with the remaining 66% reporting not being affected by the pandemic. Sixteen percent reported losing their job because of the pandemic and a further 5% reported losing their job due to the pandemic but then being employed again by the time the survey took place. Four percent reported that they were still employed but they worked fewer hours or were on furlough.

Those aged 16-24 years were more likely to have lost their job due to the pandemic (22% compared with 16% overall) and those aged 25-34 were less likely to have lost their job due to the pandemic than third year participants overall (11% compared with 16% overall).

8.3 Long-term employment outcomes (Telephone survey data)

As part of this year's telephone survey participants from earlier waves of the survey were re-contacted regarding their work status, thereby allowing for some degree of longitudinal tracking of job related outcomes for FSS participants. Full details regarding this analysis are available in the standalone telephone survey report which has been published alongside this report. It should be noted that this section of analysis utilises relatively low sample sizes and therefore results should be interpreted with caution.

Source: Telephone survey, combination of A1_W2/W3. Which of the following best describes what you are doing at the moment? And A3_W2/W3. How many hours per week do you usually work, or spend in education? Base: 2019 cohort (205)

Overall, this data suggests that for some participants job outcomes are achieved at a later stage than is currently recorded as part of routine data collection for FSS. The data also suggests an increased level of long term improvements in employment outcomes between first and second year FSS participants. This is illustrated by Figure 16 which sets out the change in work status for second year FSS participants between the Year 2 telephone survey and the current (Year 3) telephone survey. Of those FSS participants interviewed in both surveys 63% were either not in employment or working less than 16 hours per week at either time points and 18% were employed at both times. 5% were employed at the time of Year 2 survey but not at the time of the current survey and 11% were not employed at the time of Year 2 survey but were in work at the time of the current (Year 3 survey). For first year FSS participants 66% were not in employment both at the Year 1 and the current survey and 16% were in work at both times. 9% were in work at the time of Year 1 survey but not at the time of the current survey and 10% were not in work at the time of Year 1 survey but were in work at the time of the current survey.

8.4 What Types of Jobs did FSS participants Move Into? - FSS provider data

This section reports on findings from data gathered from FSS providers on characteristics of jobs that FSS participants started while taking part in the service including type of contract, working hours and earnings. The findings presented below refer to those who started on FSS during a period between April 2018 and March 2021 and as such cover the first, second and third year of FSS delivery. These findings may therefore differ slightly from those reported via the telephone survey. Further, these findings refer to the first job FSS participants started after joining the service although a proportion of FSS participants who started a job subsequently moved employment (once or several times) while receiving support from FSS.

It is important to note that the dataset used to conduct the analysis was characterised by a significant amount of missing data. Therefore, the findings presented below should be interpreted with caution.

Figure 17 illustrates that those with a limiting health condition earned National Living Wage or above less often compared with FSS participants overall. Those from minority ethnic, refugee and care experienced groups earned the National Living Wage more often than the FSS participants overall. We can also observe that over the three years of FSS delivery the proportion of participants earning National Living Wage or above has increased, reaching 84% in Year 3.

As can be seen in Figure 18, compared with FSS participants overall, women and lone parents worked full-time less often in their first job. Men, minority ethnic individuals, those with convictions and those who were care experienced worked full-time more often in their first jobs after joining FSS. We can also see that the proportion of FSS participants working full-time in their first job after joining FSS increased over the three years of FSS service delivery.

The data on jobs collected by FSS providers also asked for the type of contract, occupation and industry. However, the proportion of missing data for these categories was too significant to be able to conduct meaningful analyses.

Source: Survey of FSS providers on job outcomes characteristics for FSS participants

*Please note that this category also include the National Minimum Wage for those aged under 23. For more details see: National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk).

LTHC – Long Term Health Condition

Source: Survey of FSS providers on job outcomes characteristics for FSS participants.
* For the purpose of this analyses the full time employment pattern has been defined as working 35 hours per week or more, while working part time has been defined as working less than 35 hours per week
LTHC - Long Term Health Condition

8.5 Overcoming barriers to work

Telephone survey respondents were asked to what extent they thought the support received from FSS helped them to overcome each of the personal barriers to work they reported having. Figure 19 shows the proportion of respondents who said that the support offered by FSS helped them to overcome their personal barriers. The support from FSS was most helpful for those participants who reported not having the right qualifications, skills or experience and not feeling confident to apply for jobs as barriers to work. The FSS support helped six in ten (61%) of these participants to overcome these barriers. The support also helped over half of participants who reported having a mental health condition that made it difficult for them to carry out tasks at work (53%), those who reported not feeling mentally ready to return to work for other personal reasons (53%) and those not feeling mentally ready to return to work because of their health condition (52%).

The support from FSS was also felt to be helpful in overcoming the issue of COVID-19 epidemic making it difficult to find work. Nearly half (48%) of participants who reported this as a barrier said that the service helped them to overcome it.

Source: F1B. To what extent do you think the support you received from Fair Start Scotland helped you to overcome these barriers? Base: All 2020 Cohort who selected barrier: Not having the right qualifications, skills or experience (67) Not feeling confident about applying for jobs (20) I have a mental health condition that makes it difficult for me to carry out tasks at work (32) I do not feel mentally ready to return to work for other personal reasons (28) I do not feel mentally ready to return to work because of my health condition (19) The COVID-19 pandemic made it difficult to find work (224) Not enough suitable jobs in my local area (74) Family or caring responsibilities (48) I have a physical health condition/disability that makes it difficult for me to carry out (43) Concern that people won't employ me because of my age (17) I have a physical health condition/disability that makes it difficult for me to travel to work (14) I have a mental health condition that makes it difficult for me to travel to work (10) Other (180)

8.6 Job search skills and self-efficacy

FSS is rooted in the principles of dignity and respect, and the service model is designed to treat individuals in a way that reflects these values. This will manifest in a number of ways, one of which may be by nurturing a sense of self-efficacy in those who participate.

Self-efficacy refers to an individual's belief in their own ability to organise and carry out actions in order to successfully achieve a task. It is based on a person's perceptions and beliefs about themselves. The level of self-efficacy experienced by a person can have an impact on many areas of life, particularly those that are relevant to finding and maintaining employment.

In order to explore the effects of FSS support on participants' self-efficacy, and to establish any links to being treated with dignity and respect, the participants telephone survey included a section on standardised job search self-efficacy measures.

Respondents completed a nine-item measure of the strength of an individual's belief that they have the skills to undertake a range of job search tasks, known as the Job Search Self Efficacy (JSSE) Index.

Figure 20 shows the proportion of FSS participants who felt confident in carrying out each of the nine tasks comprising the Job Search Self Efficacy scale for participants overall, those in work and those not working at the time of the survey.

Overall, participants were confident in job search activities. However, there was some variation in the level of confidence in carrying out specific job search tasks. Nearly eight in ten participants (78%) felt confident about searching for jobs online, whereas a little over six in ten participants (63%) said they were confident to contact and persuade potential employers to consider them for a job. We can also see that those participants who were in work at the time of the survey were more confident in carrying out all of the job search tasks featured in the Job Search Self Efficacy Index than those who were not in work.

Comparing results across the three years of evaluation suggests that findings related to self-efficacy demonstrate some improvements over time. Notably, when comparing the first and third year of service delivery, Year 3 participants reported feeling more confident against each element of the JSSE index as compared to Year 1 participants. This finding may reflect other findings throughout this report that Year 3 participants may on average be closer to the labour market than previous cohorts of FSS participants.

Source: How confident do you feel about doing the following things successfully? Base: All 2020 Cohort (646)

* The Figure reports on the proportion of participants who were confident (scores 4 and 5 on a 1-5 scale) they can complete the job search related activities

What worked well?

Over a third of participants had moved into work after receiving support from FSS, with younger individuals (aged 16-34) doing particularly well compared to the overall participant population.

The majority of Year 3 participants who had moved into work were noted to be receiving the National Living Wage or above and to be working full-time and this has improved year on year. This is in keeping with SG's commitments around Fair Work.

What were the challenges? / How could we improve?

There are some groups for whom starting or sustaining work seems to be more difficult, this includes those who are disabled, lone parents, those with convictions and those who had previously been unemployed for more than two years.

What is Scottish Government doing?

We recognise that there are challenges in supporting some participants into sustained work, particularly those with convictions, who have been out of work for more than two years and/ or who have limiting long term health conditions. In addition to the specialist disability and diversity awareness training already commissioned and detailed earlier, we are undertaking a number of measures to improve our offer for these participants. For example, we are currently working with the Scottish Prison Service, Disclosure Scotland and DWP to enhance our offer for people with convictions.

We will also implement opportunities for further test and learn pilots to explore the impacts of the blended delivery approach (combining in-person and virtual means of support) on participants with differing needs, and to better understand how to mitigate the barriers to entering employment experienced by refugees, lone parents and the long term unemployed.

We will draw on and share relevant local and national labour market analysis, focusing on opportunities for the long term unemployed, improving access to permanent employment for minority ethnic participants and reviewing our in-work support offer to ensure that it is responsive to changes in labour market conditions.