Cereal and oilseed rape harvest: final estimates - 2016

2. Comparison against provisional estimates

Yields for spring barley and oilseed rape have been revised upwards since the release of early estimates in early October, and for winter barely, wheat and oats have been revised downwards, resulting in equivalent changes in production.

• Overall cereal production is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes; 21,000 tonnes or 0.8 per cent below provisional estimates.
• The estimated decrease in production of spring barley (down 15 per cent) is less than suggested by provisional estimates (17 per cent).
• Winter barley production was expected to fall by 61,000 tonnes, but has instead fallen by 77,000 tonnes compared to 2015.
• Wheat has fallen much more than expected, down 9.1 per cent rather than the 6.5 per cent initially estimated.
• Oats had a slightly smaller increase than expected, and oilseed a slightly smaller reduction.

Overall, in the past the difference between provisional and final estimates has been typically around five per cent or lower. Chart C shows the differences in yields between the two estimates over the last ten years. Yield estimates of individual cereal crops do sometimes vary by more than five per cent.

This year the revision to overall cereal yield was 0.8 per cent. In most years, the largest differences between provisional and final production estimates are for oats, with the largest difference being 17 per cent in 2012. This year the largest difference was for winter barley at 4.7 per cent.

Chart C: Cereal Production, Comparison of Provisional v Final Estimates, 2007 to 2016 (final estimates minus first estimates, as percentage difference)

Global supply of cereals is set to surpass 2.57 billion tonnes, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN^[1], a result that comes despite a decline in EU soft wheat production due to poor weather.