Firearms Certificate Statistics, Scotland, March 2014

4. Commentary

To facilitate moving to presenting the data on a financial year basis, this bulletin reports for firearm certificates as at 31 March 2014. This means any changes from the previous bulletin only covers a three month period. The data are presented on a headline basis, in the same format as how we intend to present the 2014-15 and 2015-16 data.

4.1 Firearm Certificates (Table 1 and Chart 1, 2)

• There were 26,101 firearm certificates on issue at the end of March 2014, a slight increase from the end of 2013. The number of firearm certificates on issue at the end of March 2014 is lower than the figure at the start of the series, namely at the end of 2005.

Chart 2: Number of firearm certificates on issue and number of firearms held on certificate in Scotland as at 31 December, 2005 to 2013 and as at 31 March 2014

1. Due to a change in recording practices relating to sound moderators, there was an increase of around 10,000 in the number of miscellaneous items held on firearm certificates at the end of 2013. The same change in recording practice resulted in a further increase of around 7,100 miscellaneous items held on firearm certificates at the end of March 2014. For further information please see Note 5.2.6.

• The number of items held on firearms certificate at the end of March 2014 was 91,863, an increase of 7,505 from the end of 2013. This is largely due to a change in the recording practice in relation to sound moderators. For further information please see Note 5.2.6. For 2013 and the first quarter of 2014, the increase in the number of firearms on issue are anomalous, and so should not be used in time series analysis. For further information on the number of items possessed on firearm certificates, please see Notes 5.2.8 and 5.2.9.
• Although the number of firearm certificates on issue has increased marginally in the three months period to the end of March 2014, the figures have remained relatively stable since the end of December 2005 period covered by this bulletin.
• At the end of March 2014, the number of firearm certificates on issue per head of population in Scotland was 490 per 100,000 population, an increase of two per 100,000 population compared to the end of March 2013.

4.2 Shotgun Certificates (Table 3 and Chart 3)

• There were 49,165 shotgun certificates on issue at the end of March 2014, a marginal increase from the end of 2013. This coincides with increases between end of 2012 and end of 2013. Within its historical thirty year context, the recent increases can be considered marginal after a long period of decline.
• The 49,165 shotgun certificates on issue at the end of March 2014 covered the possession of 142,142 shotguns, an increase of less than half of 1% from the end of 2013. For further information on the number of weapons possessed on shotgun certificates, please see Notes 5.2.8 and 5.2.9.
• Since the end of 2005 there has been an increase of 10% in the number of shotguns held on a certificate, while over the same period there has been a 4% decrease in the number of shotgun certificates on issue. As a result, the average number of shotguns held on each certificate issued has increased from 2.5 at the end of 2005 to 2.9 at the end of March 2014 (which has not changed since the end of 2011).

The number of shotgun certificates on issue in Scotland at the end of March 2014 per 100,000 population was 923. This is an increase of seven per 100,000 population compared to the figure at the end of 2013.

Chart 3: Number of shotgun certificates on issue and number of shotguns held on certificate in Scotland as at 31 December, 2005 to 2013, and as at 31 March 2014

4.3 Firearm Dealers (Table 4)

• There were 358 registered firearm dealers in Scotland at the end of March 2014, an increase of 2% from the 350 registered dealers at the end of 2013. This is the highest number of dealers since records began.
• The number of registered dealers per 100,000 population has been steadily increasing through the period from 2005 to March 2014, but (5.4 in December 2005 and 6.7 in March 2014).

4.4 European Firearms Passes (Table 5)

• There were 1,373 European Firearms Passes (EFPs) on issue at the end of March 2014, an increase of 2% on the 1,349 on issue at the end of 2013. Please note that the number of EFPs on issue in 2013-14 in the legacy Strathclyde Police force area is an undercount. For further information, please see Note 5.2.4.