Fisheries Management Measures within Scottish Offshore Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) - Socio-Economic Impact Assessment

4. Impacts to Commercial Fisheries

Potential Costs on the Commercial Fishing Sector

Commercial fishing takes place throughout Scottish waters by UK-flagged vessels, as well as vessels from EU Member States and non-EU countries. Within 12 NM, only UK-flagged vessels are permitted to fish. Beyond 12 NM, other countries’ vessels have access to fish in UK waters subject to being issued with a licence under the relevant agreement. Scotland is one of the largest sea fishing nations in Europe and in 2019 Scottish vessels landed 393,000 tonnes of seafish and shellfish, with a value of £582 million ^[67]. In 2019, Scottish vessels were responsible for landing 60% of the total value and 62% of the total tonnage of UK fish and shellfish landings⁶⁵.

In 2019, mackerel remained the most valuable species landed, representing 27% by value, with nephrops second at 15%. Haddock was the most valuable demersal species, followed by monkfish and cod, together accounting for 20% of the value of landings. There were a total of 2,098 active Scottish-based vessels in 2019, 1,559 of which were ten metres and under in length, and 539 vessels that were over ten metres in length. The majority of smaller vessels use pots and traps (usually called creels) to target shellfish such as crabs, lobsters and nephrops. Of the larger vessels (over ten metres), there were more of these vessels targeting shellfish on the West coast than in the islands or East coast, whereas demersal and pelagic vessels were concentrated on the East coast⁶⁵.

In 2020, landings by Scottish vessels were slightly higher in tonnage compared to 2019 (399,000 tonnes), with a value of £488 million^[68]. This represented a decrease in real value terms of 20% compared to 2019. This decrease was driven by a reduction in value of shellfish and demersal species as pelagic species increased in value. However, the lockdowns and restrictions imposed as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic impacted many fishing vessels’ ability to land and sell fish during 2020, and the fall in 2020 therefore may not indicate a change in the long-term trend.

Potential Loss in Value of Landings by Site

The estimated average annual loss in the value of landings per site as a result of each management option is shown in Table 7. The total potential impact for all sites ranges from £0.74–2.7 million per year (Option 1) to £4.8–8.0 million per year (Option 2). The overall turnover of the fishing sector in Scotland was £582 million in 2019. This impact is considered on a regional and fleet segment basis within this assessment. The corresponding loss in landings by volume is presented in Table 8.

The fishing regions most affected in terms of value of landings (Table 9) are:

• Under Option 1: North Scotland Coast (up to £726 thousand per year); Fladen (up to £535 thousand per year); East Shetland (up to £430 thousand per year); and Rockall (up to £390 thousand per year); and
• Under Option 2: Fladen (up to £2.7 million per year); North Scotland Coast (up to £1.6 million per year); East Scotland Coast (up to £1.0 million per year); and Rockall (up to £713 thousand per year).

In terms of the percentage of total landings from each fishing region that these impacts represent, the most affected regions (Table 9) are:

• Under Option 1: Hatton (up to 100% of total landings from the region affected)^[69]; Bailey (up to 56%);
• Under Option 2: Hatton (100% of total landings from the region affected); Bailey (up to 58%); East Scotland Coast (up to 11%); and Rockall (up to 7%).

The sites that account for the greatest loss in the value of landings under the Option 1 are Solan Bank Reef and Central Fladen. Under the Option 2, the sites are Central Fladen and Firth of Forth Banks Complex. For both options, in Central Fladen, the impact mainly relates to over-12 m demersal trawls. In Firth of Forth Banks Complex the impact is mainly on over-12 m mechanical dredges. In Solan Bank Reef, the impact mainly relates to over-12 m demersal trawls.

The loss in value of landings is minimal or nil for many sites under Option 1 when the potential for displacement to compensate for lost landings is taken into consideration. The fishing effort affected by the measures is expected to be able to be displaced and absorbed within the surrounding area (in most cases, the ICES rectangles within which the sites are located), without significant environmental or socio-economic consequences. These sites/gears passed the displacement test and the value of landings affected by the measures is less than 10% of the value of landings of each gear segment within the surrounding ICES rectangles. Therefore, the measures are not expected to impact on the output of the sector.

Three sites had gears which did not pass the displacement test under Option 1 – meaning the value of landings affected was greater than 10% of the value of landings from the surrounding ICES rectangles, and greater than 1% of the value of landings from the fishing region. These sites were Central Fladen (over-12 m demersal seines), Solan Bank Reef (over-12 m demersal trawls), and West of Scotland (over-12 m set nets). For these gear types in these sites, the value of landings affected is therefore included at the lower end of the cost estimate range. In practice, some effort might be displaced to other areas providing compensatory landings, but there may be environmental impacts, and other impacts in terms of gear conflict and changes to vessel costs/revenues.

N.D. = Value cannot be disclosed.

N.D. = Value cannot be disclosed.

Value of landings per region calculated from the VMS dataset for over-12m vessels only.

Potential Costs of Complying with Enforcement Requirements

The mechanisms for compliance and enforcement of management are not yet confirmed, and geofences with increased VMS polling rates within the sites are under consideration. The costs for an increased VMS polling rate could be borne by vessels or by the fisheries administrations. This is discussed further in Appendix B.

Potential Economic Impact of Management Measures

Impact of Loss of Landings on GVA and Employment

Turnover of the fishing industry in Scotland was £582 million in 2019,⁶⁵ contributing £329 million in Gross Value Added (GVA) and employing 4,886 people (headcount) (Scottish Government, 2022) ^[70] or 2,919 full-time equivalents (FTEs) (Seafish, 2021)^[71].

Table 10 shows the estimated average annual reduction in GVA (direct, indirect and induced) arising from the implementation of the management measures across all sites, for each management option.

The annual average direct GVA effect ranges from £0.3 million to £3.5 million across the two management options, with the largest effects arising from Solan Bank Reef SAC, Central Fladen MPA and Pobie Bank Reef SAC (Option 1), and from Central Fladen MPA, Firth of Forth Banks Complex MPA and Solan Bank Reef SAC (Option 2).

Taking into account knock-on effects on the supply chain (indirect GVA), and the induced GVA effects, the total effect is an impact of £0.4 million to £4.5 million on the Scottish economy (average annual reduction in direct, indirect and induced GVA).

Table 11 shows the present value of the reduction in GVA across the 20-year time horizon of the assessment. The direct GVA effect ranges from £4.9 million to £50.7 million, and the direct, indirect and induced GVA effect ranges from £6.9 million to £71.0 million (Option 1 and Option 2 in both cases, present value, 2022 prices, discounted over assessment period).

Table 12 shows the average number of jobs affected by the management measures across all sites. Under Option 1, a total of 10–34 jobs (direct and indirect) are lost per site, rising to 61–101 under Option 2. The losses of direct and indirect employment primarily arise from Central Fladen MPA and Firth of Forth Banks Complex MPA (Option 2).

Impacts on Non-UK Vessels

Impacts on non-UK vessels have not been quantified in monetary terms, although the number of vessels that might be affected and hours fishing are identified for each site by nationality in Appendix D. This has taken into consideration the likely gear type used by the vessels in question (although there are uncertainties around attribution of gear type to non-UK vessels as trip-based information is not available).

The nationalities likely to be most affected are France (5,102 hours), Germany (3,417 hours), Norway (2,488 hours) and Faroe Islands (1,664 hours) (all under Option 1). Danish, Irish, Spanish, Belgian, Dutch and Swedish vessels are also affected. If these vessels would normally land to ports in Scotland, there may be knock-on effects on the ports and down-stream supply chains.

West of Scotland MPA affects the largest number of non-UK vessels (29 vessels under Option 1, and 75 under Option 2), followed by Wyville-Thomson Ridge (13 and 37) and Faroe-Shetland Sponge Belt (13 and 16).

N.D. = Value cannot be disclosed.

N.D. = Value cannot be disclosed.

Notes: The total impact on employment has been estimated as the average (mean) number of jobs affected (rather than the sum of jobs affected), over the 20 year period. This is because it is likely that it would be the same jobs that are affected, year-on-year and hence summing the jobs would provide a misleading total.

N.D. = Value cannot be disclosed.

Non-Quantified Impacts

In addition to the cost, GVA and employment impacts, there are additional potential impacts that have not been quantified in the assessment.

The implementation of management measures restricting certain gear types from operating in the sites (or parts of the sites) may result in the displacement of fishing effort from the sites. At the lower end of the range of each option, where the fleet segment passes the displacement test, it is assumed that there is no change in output (no change to the value of landings), but the effort displaced to the surrounding ICES rectangles or wider region may result in additional seabed abrasion. Affected vessels may have to steam further to reach fishing grounds, and may be fishing on less productive grounds, having to fish more to maintain catches, resulting in potential changes to vessels cost and revenue profiles. These impacts (reflected in the range of the estimates) are likely to be greatest for Pobie Bank Reef SAC, Central Fladen MPA and North West Rockall Bank SAC under Option 1, and for West Shetland Shelf MPA, Pobie Bank Reef SAC and Faroe-Shetland Sponge Belt MPA under Option 2.

However, even under the higher end of the estimates, where it is assumed that all affected landings are lost rather than effort being displaced to other areas, it is possible that in reality some effort is displaced. In these cases, the impacts are likely to be proportional to the amount of effort displaced, with greater impacts where the displacement test is failed. Fleet segments and sites that failed the displacement test, under Option 1, were Solan Bank Reef SAC (demersal trawls), Central Fladen MPA (demersal seines), and West of Scotland MPA (set nets); and under Option 2, were Central Fladen MPA (demersal trawls and seines), Firth of Forth Banks Complex MPA (dredges), Solan Bank Reef SAC (demersal trawls), Geike Slide and Hebridean Slope MPA (demersal trawls) East Rockall Bank SAC (set nets) and West of Scotland MPA (set nets).

In sites where all mobile demersal gears are proposed to be excluded from the site or from areas within the site, this may provide an opportunity for static gears to operate in those areas. This may result in additional landings for those operators, but potentially contributes continued abrasion within the site (Rees et al., 2021^[72]) (although at a lower level than from the mobile demersal gears which have been excluded). There are twelve sites with potential for static gear to operate in areas where all demersal mobile gears are excluded^[73]:

• Central Fladen MPA*
• East Rockall Bank SAC*
• Faroe-Shetland Sponge Belt MPA*
• North-east Faroe Shetland Channel MPA;
• Norwegian Boundary Sediment Plain MPA*
• Pobie Bank Reef SAC*
• Geike Slide and Hebridean Slope MPA*
• Solan Bank Reef SAC*
• Stanton Banks SAC*
• The Barra Fan and Hebrides Terrace Seamount MPA*
• West Shetland Shelf MPA*
• Wyville-Thomson Ridge SAC