Flood disadvantage in Scotland: mapping the potential losses in well-being

4 Conclusion

4.1 Climate disadvantage is determined not only by the likelihood and degree of exposure to a hazard such as flooding, but also individual and group vulnerability with regard to such hazards. Vulnerability is a matter of how the external event converts into losses in well-being. A wide range of distinct personal, environmental and social factors are involved in the conversion of extreme weather events into losses in well-being. Different locations can require different policy interventions, depending on the specific local conversion factors that are most at play.

4.2 The results presented in this report provide a first focused look at flood disadvantage in Scotland. A flood disadvantage map associated with coastal and fluvial flooding has been produced for Scottish neighbourhoods and summarised according to local authority. This contrasts with many previous approaches where the main emphasis is on understanding detailed patterns of potential flood exposure with a less extensive consideration of how that exposure may translate into losses of well-being in neighbourhoods and their communities.

4.3 The mapping work presented in this report was undertaken with the following objectives:

• To provide information about where the main concentrations of disadvantage associated with coastal and fluvial flooding are to be found.
• To provide fine-grained information on the specific sources of flood disadvantage and socio-spatial flood vulnerability in different locations.

4.4 A flood disadvantage map associated with coastal and fluvial (river-related) flooding has been produced for Scottish neighbourhoods. It combines existing neighbourhood level estimates of 'socio-spatial vulnerability' with an estimate of flood hazard-exposure. The measure of flood hazard-exposure is based on the percentage of residential addresses within each neighbourhood that are potentially affected by coastal or fluvial (river-related) flooding. Results have been summarised according to local authority.

4.5 The results presented in this report suggest that 34% of Scottish neighbourhoods contain residential properties which are potentially exposed to some form of coastal or fluvial (river-related) flooding, covering areas where there is only a very low likelihood of flooding in any particular year (a 0.1% chance) up to those with a higher likelihood (1.0% chance). Within these potentially exposed neighbourhoods, 8.2% are estimated to be 'extremely flood disadvantaged', i.e. they typically have a high potential for losses in well-being and a high proportion of residential properties potentially affected by flood events, relative to the Scottish average. They represent 2.8% of all Scottish neighbourhoods. It is recommended that the personal, environmental and social factors affecting vulnerability in these neighbourhoods are considered further, in order to establish appropriate responses in each area.

4.6 The local authorities of Moray, Falkirk, Perth and Kinross and Glasgow City have the largest proportions of their total number of neighbourhoods classed as being 'extremely flood disadvantaged' with respect to coastal and fluvial (river-related) flooding. These local authorities may require additional support in order to build resilience within identified neighbourhoods and their associated communities.

4.7 Four case study examples have been presented to illustrate how fine-grained information may allow adaptation policy to be better targeted to the specific needs of different localities and populations. Such targeting should be part of a wider adaptation strategy which addresses the needs of socially flood vulnerable people across Scotland as a whole.

4.8 It is recommended that Scottish Government consider carrying out additional assessment work involving:

• Combination of the existing socio-spatial flood vulnerability index data with updated flood exposure model outputs, including estimates of pluvial flooding and the impacts of flood defences.
• Development of updated socio-spatial flood index data using data from the 2011 Census.
• Further consideration of dwelling type in the exposure assessment.