Scotland’s prison population: FOI release

Information requested

1. The full briefing provided to Angela Constance for her ministerial statement on Scotland’s prison population delivered on 3 October 2023.
2. The Scottish Government or Scottish Prison Service’s most recent projection of Scotland’s prison population for the future (covering any time period beyond the current date – if a specific date is required by the end of 2024, end of 2025 and end of 2026) and all the assumptions contained within the projection to come up with a figure for the future population. For example, the number of people it assumes will be remanded into custody during the time period of the projection, the number of sentenced prisoners entering custody during the time period’s projection (and the type of sentenced prisoners entering custody such as long-term, short-term, life prisoners etc.). If possible, please also break down the projected population by type of prisoner incarcerated (i.e long-term, short-term, remand, life etc.).
3. All correspondence involving the Cabinet Secretary for Justice & Home Affairs (and her office) related to using the powers of the Bail and Release from Custody Act 2023 to release prisoners early by ministerial regulation as set out in Section 11. Please provide all emails, meetings (on zoom, teams or in-person) and phone/conference calls involving the Cabinet Secretary on this matter between 1 July 2023 and the present date.

Response

Part 1 of the request

I enclose a copy of some of the information you requested (see Annex A). While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide some of the information you have requested because exemption under sections 30(b)(i) of FOISA (free and frank advice).

30(b)(1)
Exemptions under sections 30(b)(i) of FOISA (free and frank advice) apply to some of the information requested. These exemptions apply because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice for the purposes of deliberation. The exemption recognises the need for Ministers to have a private space within which to seek advice and views from officials before reaching a settled public position.

These exemptions are subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemptions. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing a private space within which officials can provide free and frank advice and views to Ministers. Premature disclosure of this type of information could lead to a reduction in the comprehensiveness and frankness of such advice and views in the future, which would not be in the public interest.

Part 2 of the request

The Scottish Government published its most recent prison population projection on 14 November 2023, covering the period from October 2023 to March 2024 (Prison population projections: November 2023 edition - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)). The report describes how the assumptions are based on various historical data types (including the number of people remanded into custody and the number of sentenced prisoners). Further information on historical remand and sentenced arrivals are available in SG’s Prison Statistics (Scottish Prison Population Statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)) and in the monthly prisons update available here (Justice Analytical Services: safer communities and justice statistics monthly report - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)). The next prison statistics annual update is scheduled to be released on 5th December 2023.

Part 3 of the request

I enclose a copy of some of the information you requested (see Annex B). While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide some of the information you have requested because exemption under sections 30(b)(i) and 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank advice and exchange of views).

30(b)(1) & 30(b)(ii)
Exemptions under sections 30(b)(i) and 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank advice and exchange of views) apply to some of the information requested. These exemptions apply because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of advice and exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation. The exemptions recognise the need for Ministers to have a private space within which to seek advice and views from officials before reaching a settled public position.

These exemptions are subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemptions. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemptions. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing a private space within which officials can provide free and frank advice and views to Ministers. Premature disclosure of this type of information could lead to a reduction in the comprehensiveness and frankness of such advice and views in the future, which would not be in the public interest.

38(1)(b)
An exemption under section 38(1)(b) of FOISA (personal information) applies to a small amount of the information requested because it is personal data of a third party, i.e. names and contact details of individuals, and disclosing it would contravene the data protection principles in Article 5(1) of the General Data Protection Regulation and in section 34(1) of the Data Protection Act 2018. This exemption is not subject to the ‘public interest test’, so we are not required to consider if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at http://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202300380070 - Information Released - Annex A to PART 1

File type

55 page PDF

File size

453.6 kB

FOI 202300380070 - Information Released - Annex B to PART 3

File type

10 page PDF

File size

128.9 kB