Just Transition Jobs Modelling: EIR release

Information requested

Information relating to information in the response to FOI 202300361360.

Request 1:
"With the right support, the number of low carbon jobs is modelled to rise from 19,000 in 2019 to 77,000 by 2050 as the result of a just energy transition, delivering a net gain in jobs across the energy production sector overall."

Can you please provide the information and models which support this statement including any correspondence used to build the models and sources of the data, where and what the nature of the jobs would be as well as income resulting from them.

Request 2:
"With research from RGU (2021) highlighting that a majority of offshore workers could be delivering low carbon energy by 2030 and that more than 90% of the UK’s oil and gas workforce have medium to high skills transferability – they are well positioned to work in adjacent energy sectors."

Please provide copies of this RGU research material to show how a breakdown of the "majority of offshore workers" including how many, what companies, what roles for the low carbon and for the traditional energy sectors and then also what the definition for "delivering low carbon energy" means in this context.

Request 3:
“The Passport involves collaboration between the energy industry and its workers, and unions participate in the project’s steering group.”

• What industry partners are on board with using the skills passport?
• How many passports are in place, if none then what is the expected rampup of skills passport holders?
• How many of these are existing off-shore O&G workers and how many are new employees coming direct into Offshore turbine/cabling?

Response

As the information you have requested is ‘environmental information’ for the purposes of the Environmental Information (Scotland) Regulations 2004 (EIRs), we are required to deal with your request under those Regulations. We are applying the exemption at section 39(2) of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002 (FOISA), so that we do not also have to deal with your request under FOISA.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption, because there is no public interest in dealing with the same request under two different regimes. This is essentially a technical point and has no material effect on the outcome of your request.

Request 1:
"With the right support, the number of low carbon jobs is modelled to rise from 19,000 in 2019 to 77,000 by 2050 as the result of a just energy transition, delivering a net gain in jobs across the energy production sector overall."

Can you please provide the information and models which support this statement including any correspondence used to build the models and sources of the data, where and what the nature of the jobs would be as well as income resulting from them.

Response:
Data in relation to the number of low carbon jobs which has been modelled to rise from 19,000 in 2019 to 77,000 by 2050 has been published within EY’s independent Analysis of Scotland’s Energy System. Further information on the methodology adopted has been included within Chapter 3 of this analysis. Specifically assumptions and approach are detailed in Sections 4 and 5 and Annexes A, B and C of this report. *chapter3.pdf (energy-system-and-just-transition-independent-analysis.co.uk)

The following supporting analysis was used for the Technological Scenario, the Societal Change Scenario and the Balanced Option Scenario: Scottish whole energy system scenarios (climatexchange.org.uk)

Under regulation 6(1)(b) of the EIRs, we do not have to give you information which is already publicly available and easily accessible to you in another form or format. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

Request 2:
"With research from RGU (2021) highlighting that a majority of offshore workers could be delivering low carbon energy by 2030 and that more than 90% of the UK’s oil and gas workforce have medium to high skills transferability – they are well positioned to work in adjacent energy sectors."

Please provide copies of this RGU research material to show how a breakdown of the "majority of offshore workers" including how many, what companies, what roles for the low carbon and for the traditional energy sectors and then also what the definition for "delivering low carbon energy" means in this context.

Response
While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. Therefore we are refusing your request under the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs. Under the terms of the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested because this report was developed by Robert Gordon’s University and Scottish Government hold only a final copy of the published report, which can also be found here: www.rgueti.com/wpcontent/uploads/2021/05/workforce-transferability-report.pdf

This exception is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exception. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exception. While we recognise that there may be some public interest in information about this research clearly we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

Request 3:
“The Passport involves collaboration between the energy industry and its workers, and unions participate in the project’s steering group.”

• What industry partners are on board with using the skills passport?
• How many passports are in place, if none then what is the expected rampup of skills passport holders?
• How many of these are existing off-shore O&G workers and how many are new employees coming direct into Offshore turbine/cabling?

Response:
The answers to your questions are as follows:

What industry partners are on board with using the skills passport?
In May 2023, OPITO shared with Scottish Government the names of 12 organisations who have supported the Skills Passport through a statement of commitment: Shell, Total Energies, Equinor, Spirit Energy, OEUK, NZTC, RMT, Unite, BP, Wood group, Ithaca Energy & CNOOC. OPITO continue to engage with stakeholders across offshore energy industries on the Skills Passport and the statement has been re-circulated for broader commitment.

How many passports are in place, if none then what is the expected ramp up of skills passport holders?
The Skills Passport solution is still being developed and is not yet publicly available. Once launched, it is expected that the current UK offshore energy workforce of circa 154,000 workers will have the opportunity to use the Passport. Based on analysis supplied by OPITO to Scottish Government, the number of potential users is expected to increase over time as the offshore workforce is projected to expand leading up to 2050.

How many of these are existing off-shore O&G workers and how many are new employees coming direct into Offshore turbine/cabling?
As the Skills Passport is still being developed, we cannot say definitively how many existing offshore oil and gas workers and new employees coming directly into offshore turbine/cabling will use the solution. However, based on analysis supplied by OPITO to Scottish Government the Passport aims to support circa 24,500 transitioning oil and gas workers to move across offshore energy industries.

Regarding your request for ‘how many are new employees coming direct into Offshore turbine/cabling’, while our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance the Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested. Therefore we are refusing your request under the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs. Under the terms of the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested because the estimates provided to us have related to the transfer of existing workers, rather than new incoming workers.

This exception is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exception. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exception. While we recognise that there may be some public interest in information about the skills passport, clearly we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

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