Estimated impact of Long Covid on Scotland's economy: FOI release

Information requested

The following information specifically related to the economic impact of Long Covid on Scotland:

1. Copies of final, or draft, reports, assessments, or studies conducted by or for the Scottish Government that estimate the economic impact of Long Covid, including loss of productivity, workforce reduction, and healthcare costs, between January 2023 and September 2024.

2. Any estimates, projections or measures produced by the Scottish Government on the economic burden or costs associated with individuals reducing their working hours or leaving the workforce entirely due to Long Covid during the same period.

3. Correspondence between relevant government departments regarding the estimation of these economic impacts and any measures or studies that have been undertaken to address them, specifically:

• Chief Economist Directorate
• Jobs and Wellbeing Economy Directorate
• Healthcare Quality and Improvement Directorate
• Population Health Directorate
• Social Care and National Care Service Development Directorate
• Social Security Directorate

Response

I enclose a copy of information relating to your request.

• '20230608 Oral PQ Jackie Baillie.pdf' - a background note prepared for an oral PQ (ref: S6O- 02357, details of the question and response are published here), which refers to long COVID and its relationship with economic activity
• '20230613 Oral PQ S6O-02357 addtional note.pdf' - an additional facts and briefing document prepared for the same oral PQ as above (ref: S6O-02357), which refers to long COVID and its relationship with economic activity
• 'RE PQ for approval.pdf' - email correspondence between officials discussing the response to oral PQ (S6O-01874), details of the question and response are published here)

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, an exemption under section 30(b)(ii) of FOISA (free and frank exchange of views) applies to some of the information requested. This exemption applies because disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and
frank exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation. This exemption recognises the need for officials to have a private space within which to discuss issues and options with external stakeholders before the Scottish Government reaches a settled public view. Disclosing these estimates of the economic impact of long COVID from a draft of a paper shared by NHS National Services Scotland, which have not been agreed or finalised, will substantially inhibit such discussions in the future, because these stakeholders will be reluctant to provide their views fully and frankly if they believe that those views are likely to be made public, particularly while these discussions are still ongoing and decisions have not been taken.

This exemption is subject to the ‘public interest test’. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is a public interest in disclosing information as part of open, transparent and accountable government, and to inform public debate. However, there is a greater public interest in allowing officials a private space within which to communicate with appropriate external stakeholders as part of the process of exploring and refining accurate estimates of the economic impact of long COVID, until stakeholder networks as a whole can adopt a position that is sound and accurate. This private space is essential to enable all options to be properly considered, so that good policy decisions can be taken based on fully informed advice and evidence, such as that provided by the long COVID Strategic Network facilitated by NHS National Services Scotland. Premature disclosure is likely to undermine the full and frank discussion of issues between the Scottish Government and these stakeholders, which in turn will undermine the quality of the decision making process, which would not be in the public interest. There is also an important public interest in avoiding the loss of stakeholder confidence in cases where they thought they were providing comments in confidence, which would be inevitable if an individual’s contribution was released against their wishes.

Further information provided out with FOISA which you may find helpful

Scottish Government considers the impact of a full range of factors that can impact economic activity levels, including illness.

Research, such as the Public Health Scotland's Scottish Burden of Disease study, provides information on the levels of illness across Scotland and is used within policy development.

You may be interested to see this experimental statistics publication from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which falls outside the timeframe of your request. The report provides estimates for the UK of the number of people of working age who are economically inactive by self-reported long COVID status.

Self-reported long COVID and labour market outcomes, UK: 2022 - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

In September 2024, the Scottish Government published an official statistics report covering the prevalence of self-reported long COVID in Scotland. It provides the most up to date summary of:

• New and previously published estimates of self-reported long COVID prevalence in Scotland, including data from various surveys undertaken by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and by the Scottish Health Survey.
• Plans for future reporting of self-reported prevalence using data from the Scottish Health Survey.

SG - Investigating the prevalence of long COVID in Scotland - Sept 2024

In September 2024, the Scottish Government published a rapid evidence review into economic inactivity in Scotland:

SG - Economic inactivity in Scotland: supporting those with longer-term health conditions and disabilities to remain economically active - Sept 2024

The review refers to long COVID, stating that the impact of long COVID on inactivity rates is unclear, partly due to data limitations in health and employment surveys. The paper draws on evidence which suggests that long COVID is not a key driver for economic inactivity. This is because the UK saw similarly high infection rates during the Covid-19 pandemic as other countries that are now not experiencing the same rates of economic inactivity.

The report cites among other evidence a Health Foundation commentary from 2022 (Health Foundation - Is poor health driving a rise in economic inactivity? - Oct 2022). This in turn cites other evidence to conclude that “overall, this (evidence) suggests long COVID is playing a relatively minor role in the increase in inactivity”.

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at https://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

FOI 202400435107 - Information Released - Annex

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