Publication - FOI/EIR release

Statistical modelling for 2024 Teacher Workforce Planning Exercise: FOI release

Published: 28 January 2025
Directorate: Learning Directorate
Topic: Education, Public sector
FOI reference: FOI/202400445131
Date received: 13 December 2024
Date responded: 16 January 2025

Information request and response under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002.

Information requested

Access to the complete statistical modelling used in the 2024 Teacher Workforce Planning Exercise, including all associated data, assumptions, and methodologies.

The information I am requesting goes beyond the extract provided and should include:

Detailed modelling data.
Underlying assumptions and parameters.
Any scenario-based projections or alternative models considered.
Supporting documentation or analyses used to inform the intake requirements for Initial Teacher Education (ITE).

This information is essential for understanding the methodology behind workforce planning decisions, particularly for addressing teacher employment stability.

If any of the requested information is exempt from disclosure, I would appreciate an explanation of the reasons for the exemption and a summary of the withheld content, as per the Act’s requirements.

Response

It is not possible to release all of the detailed modelling data due to the inclusion of personal data from the school staff census, which is exempt from release under section 38(1)(b) of the Freedom of Information Act.

Input and outputs of the model are listed in the table below, with a summary of their nature and availability.

Dataset	Source	Usage	Exemption applied	Release status
Input: Pupil projections	Pupil projections and implications for teacher resourcing needs: education workforce modelling and research - gov.scot	Used to calculate what the target PTR is for the model to maintain teacher numbers	Section 25(1)	Already published
Input: gbl_PTR_projections	Calculated from pupil projections	Relationship of pupil projections and PTR for target to maintain teacher numbers	NA	Enclosed
Input: gbl_PGDE_entries	Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - gov.scot	Intake of PGDE students each year matched with probationer teachers to calculate leaver rate of education pathways	Section 25(1)	Years prior to 2024 already published. Figures for 2024 enclosed.
Input: gbl_BEd_entries	Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group - gov.scot	Intake and subsequent years of BEd students each year matched with probationer teachers to calculate leaver rate of education pathways	Section 25(1)	Years prior to 2024 already published. Figures for 2024 enclosed.
Input: gbl_staffdetails_file	Staff census: sta.staffdetails_[yyyy]	Age and sex of teachers in posts, linked to staff posts to calculate averaged leaver rates used in projections.	Section 38(1)(b)	No
Input: gbl_staffposts_file	Staff census: sta.staffposts_[yyyy]	Current and past FTE of teachers, linked to staff details, used to calculate averaged leaver rates used in projections. Various breakdowns analysed including probationers, postprobationers, normal complement, by sector.	Section 38(1)(b)	No
Output: ITE_projections_2024_baseline	Teacher Workforce Planning model	Modelled ITE intake needs and expected throughput to workforce based on modelled or assumed reduction rates	NA	Enclosed
Output: need_breakdown_2024_baseline	Teacher Workforce Planning model	Modelled teacher need based on input parameters. For the 2024 model run this was fixed at a constant level.	NA	Enclosed
Output: Wastage_rates_2024 baseline	Teacher Workforce Planning model	Averaged leaver (or wastage) rates by sex, single year of age and sector, used in model to calculate reduction of existing workforce.	NA	Enclosed
Output: workforce_2024_baseline	Teacher Workforce Planning model	2024 FTE by single year of age, sex and sector.	NA	Enclosed
Output: workforce_projections_2024_current targets	Teacher Workforce Planning model	Modelled workforce projections showing modelled teacher numbers, ITE and leavers	NA	Enclosed

The enclosed data for PGDE and BEd initial teacher education intakes for 2024 were provisional at the time the model was run. These are not official statistics and will be superseded when the final data is published to the Teacher Workforce Planning Advisory Group page later in the year.

Output files from the model are enclosed as part of this FOI response.

As detailed in the 2024 statistical modelling paper, the reduction rate for teachers after their Teacher Induction Scheme year (i.e. % of post-probationers who do not move into a teaching post) was fixed at 10% rather than calculated as an average of recorded reduction rates, in recognition that job availability has become a greater limiting factor in recent years. Only results from the 10% model (labelled ‘SCENARIO 1’ in the enclosed files) were presented to the TWP Advisory Committee meeting on 31/10/2024 but we also enclose output from the alternative scenario (‘SCENARIO 2’ here) of using recent reductions rates, leading to higher recommendations for ITE places which were not presented. Note that the model can be run to project over a number of years based on the current policy for workforce need. This iteration was arbitrarily run up to 2029 but the years after the 2025 ITE intake targets do not form the basis for any ongoing policy decisions and were not presented to the TWP Advisory Committee or Cabinet Secretary for Education.

ITE_projections_2024_baseline

Modelled ITE intake needs and expected throughput to workforce based on modelled or assumed reduction rates.

The worksheet ‘intake’ details the modelled targets for Initial Teacher Education intake required to meet the workforce need. This forms the basis of the recommendation for funded primary and secondary PGDE places in the coming year. The model assumes that BEd pathway intakes remain constant. The worksheet ‘output’ details the predicted number of ITE graduates entering the Teacher Induction Scheme, based on five-year-averaged reduction rates in existing data.

need_breakdown_2024_baseline

Modelled teacher need based on input parameters. For the 2024 model run this was fixed at a constant level to meet the policy ask of maintaining teacher numbers.

Wastage_rates_2024_baseline

Averaged reduction (or wastage) rates by sex, single year of age and sector, used in model to calculate reduction of existing workforce.

Worksheets ‘primary_post_prob’ and ‘secondary_post_prob’ contain the five-year-averaged reduction rates of the general teaching workforce (i.e. not those in their probationary year), by single year of age, sex and sector.

Worksheets ‘primary_TIS’ and ‘secondary_TIS’ contain the five-year-averaged reduction rates of teacher induction scheme teachers entering the teaching workforce following their probationary year, by single year of age, sex and sector. As noted above, this rate was fixed at 10% for ‘scenario 1’, which formed the basis of the recommendation for 2025 ITE intake.

Worksheets ‘primary_returns’ and ‘secondary_returns’ contain the five-year-averaged number of teachers entering the teaching workforce outwith the Teacher Induction Scheme, by single year of age, sex and sector. Note that this is not a rate as there is no way to know the potential pool of qualified teachers that these are drawn from.

Note that these reduction rates are calculated and then applied by single year of age, so are weighted according to the age profile of TIS teachers. It is not possible to take an arithmetic mean of all rates in this file to calculate an average for all teachers.

workforce_2024_baseline

FTE by single year of age, sex and sector, based on data from the 2023 school staff census. This has been deemed to be disclosive data and so cells with a non-zero value below 10 have been supressed and replaced with ‘c’.

workforce_projections_2024_current targets

Modelled workforce projections showing modelled teacher numbers, ITE and leavers for primary and secondary.

For each year, the teacher workforce is split into non-TIS teachers (column B) and TIS teachers (column C). Columns D to G are the numbers to be added to (D, G) and subtracted from (E,F) the teacher workforce to get to the number for the next year.

Note that the ‘incoming’ TIS teachers includes those from both PGDE and BEd pathways.

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