Future Skills Action Plan for Scotland: evidence and analysis annex

Footnotes

1 OECD (2017), ‘Getting Skills Right: United Kingdom’.

2 OECD (2019), ‘OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2019’.

3 The 17 European Union member states using the Euro.

4 Scottish Government (2015), ‘Scotland’s Economic Strategy’, and Scottish Government (2016), ‘Scotland’s Labour Market Strategy’.

5 BEIS (2015) ‘UK Skills and Productivity in International Context’.

6 Ibid.

7 OECD (2013), ‘OECD Skills Outlook’.

8 Hahn and Truman (2015), ‘Education improves public health and promotes health equity’.

9 Brinkley and Crowley (2017), ‘From ‘inadequate’ to ‘outstanding’: making the UK’s skills system world class’.

10 See e.g. Denny et al. (2004), ‘Education. earning and skills: A multi-country comparison’.

11 Brockmann et al. (2008) ‘Knowledge, skills, competence: European divergences in vocational education and training (VET) - the English, German and Dutch cases’.

12 Hutfilter et al. (2018), ‘Improving skills and their use in Germany’.

13 See e.g. Baethge and Wolter (2015), ‘The German skill formation model in transition: from dual system of VET to higher education?’.

14 Augar et al. (2019), ‘Independent panel report: post-18 review of education and funding’, page 132.

15 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Follow-up leaver destinations – number 1 2019: summary statistics’.

16 Kuczera (2013), ‘A skills beyond school commentary on Scotland’.

17 Full-time equivalent (FTE) is the proportion of a full-time course that a student is studying. A student on a full-time full year course is 1.0, a student on a part-time course that is 60% of a full-time course is 0.6.

18 Student and learner numbers all refer to academic year. Also, they include all domiciles.

19 Scottish Funding Council (2019), ‘Tables for HE Students and Qualifiers, 2017/18’, Table 16.

20 Skills Development Scotland (2019), ‘Modern Apprenticeship Statistics, Full Year Report 2018/19’.

21 Scottish Qualifications Authority (2019), ‘Annual Statistical Report 2018’.

22 Higher Education Statistic Agency (2019), ‘Higher Education Student Statistics: UK, 2017/18’, figure 17.

23 Scottish Funding Council (2018),’College Leaver Destinations 2016/17‘.

24 Skills Development Scotland (2016), ‘Modern Apprenticeship Intermediate Outcomes 2016’.

25 Scottish Funding Council (2019), ‘Report on Widening Access, 2017/18’.

26 Ibid., page 30.

27 Ibid., section 7, page 34.

28 ONS, Labour Force Survey, Apr-Jun 2019.

29 Most recent data – Apr-Jun 2019 shows a 0.7 percentage point difference (UK employment rate of 76.1% and Scotland 75.4%).

30 Figure 4 shows employment rates for ages 15-64 as used by OECD rather than the standard ONS 16-64.

31 The Labour Force Survey shows Scotland’s employment rate (16-64) for women has been equal or higher than the UK’s in every month since Jul-Sep 2001, other than Jul-Sep 2012, Sep-Nov 2012 and Nov-Jan 2019.

32 ONS, Labour Force Survey, Feb-Apr 2019.

33 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Regional employment patterns in Scotland: statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2018’.

34 Ibid.

35 Scottish Government (2019), ’Just Transition Commission: Background report’.

36 ONS (2019), ‘People in employment on zero hours contracts’.

37 D'Arcy and Rahman (2019), ‘Atypical approaches: Options to support workers with insecure incomes’.

38 UK Government (2019), ‘Earnings and employment statistics from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information: experimental statistics’.

39 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2019), ‘Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019’.

40 Scottish Government (2019), 'Poverty and income inequality in Scotland: 2015-2018’.

41 Congreve and McCormick (2018), ‘Poverty in Scotland 2018’.

42 NRS (2017), ‘Projected Population of Scotland (2016-based)’.

43 Ibid.

44 Institute of Leadership and Management (2015), ‘Untapped Talent: can over 50s bridge the leadership skills gap’.

45 Keep (2019), ‘The impact of digital innovation on education, training and skills – some initial thoughts’, unpublished.

46 OECD (2019), ‘OECD Employment Outlook’.

47 Bell and Eiser (2013). “Inequality in Scotland: trends, drivers, and implications for the independence debate’.

48 Holmes and Mayhew (2012), ‘The Changing Shape of the UK Job Market and its Implications for the Bottom Half of Earners’.

49 OECD (2019), ‘Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2019’.

50 Fraser of Allander Institute (2017), ‘Unpicking Scotland’s recent productivity performance relative to the UK: is it all that it seems?’.

51 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Regional employment patterns in Scotland: statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2018’.

52 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Indicative APS Pay Gap’.

53 ONS (2019), ‘Annual Population Survey, January - December, 2017’.

54 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Gender Pay Gap Action Plan Analytical Annex’.

55 Ibid.

56 ONS (2019), ‘Annual Population Survey, January - December, 2017’.

57 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Regional employment patterns in Scotland: statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2018’.

58 Scottish Government (2019), ‘No-deal Brexit: economic implications for Scotland’.

59 Scottish Fiscal Commission (2019), ‘Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019’.

60 Skills Development Scotland (2019), ‘RSA Data Matrix’.

61 Skills Development Scotland (2017), ‘Job and Skills in Scotland: the evidence’, page 15.

62 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Scotland's place in Europe: people, jobs and investment’.

63 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Scottish Consumer Sentiment Indicator, 2019 Quarter 1’.

64 Scottish Government (2019), ‘No-deal Brexit: economic implications for Scotland’.

65 UK Department for Education (2018), ‘Employer skills survey 2017: Scotland toolkit’.

66 Ibid.

67 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Regional employment patterns in Scotland: statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2018’.

68 Scottish Government (2019) ‘Climate Change Bill’.

69 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Just Transition Commission: Background report’.

70 European Commission (2019), ‘Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2019’.

71 Ibid.

72 World Economic Forum (2016), ‘The future of Jobs: Employment, skills, and workforce strategy for the fourth industrial revolution’.

73 Carney (2018), ‘The future of Work’.

74 Frey and Osborne (2013), ‘The Future of Employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation?’.

75 Centre for Cities (2018), ‘The rise of the robots could compound Britain’s North/South divide – with 1 in 4 jobs at risk in cities outside the South’.

76 Scottish Government (2018), ‘Technological change and the Scottish labour market’.

77 Roberts et al. (2019), ‘The future is ours: Women, automation and equality in the digital age’.

78 Keep E. (2019), ‘The impact of digital innovation on education, training and skills – some initial thoughts’, unpublished.

79 Bakhshi and Schneider (2017), ‘The Future of Skills: Employment in 2030’.

80 TUC (2019), ‘How industrial change can be managed to deliver better jobs’.

81 ONS (2019), ‘Which occupations are at highest risk of being automated?’.

82 Holmes C. and K. Mayhew (2012), ‘The Changing Shape of the UK Job Market and its Implications for the Bottom Half of Earners’.

83 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Labour Productivity Statistics Quarter 4 2018’.

84 European Central Bank (2016), ‘The Productivity Challenge for Europe’.

85 OECD (2019), ‘OECD Skill Strategy 2019’.

86 See e.g. Blundell R. et al. (1999) ‘Human capital investments: The returns from education and training to the individual, the firm and the Economy’, table 2, and figure 5.1 of another paper from IFS authored by Dearden L. et al. (2000), ‘Who gains when workers train? Training and corporate productivity in a panel of British industries’.

87 See e.g. Blundell R. et al. (1999) ‘Human capital investments: The returns from education and training to the individual, the firm and the Economy’, page 8.

88 In the Annual Population Survey, job related training is defined as any education or training activity connected with the current job, or a job that the person might be able to do in the future.

89 OECD (2017), ‘Getting Skills Right: United Kingdom’.

90 UK Department for Education (2018), ‘UK Employer Skills Survey 2017’. This is a biannual UK-wide survey providing information from over 87,000 employer establishments across the UK on skills needs, skills use and skills development.

91 The proportion of establishments reporting skills gaps is defined as “incidence” of skills gaps. Also, the proportion of employees with skills gaps over total employment is defined as “density”.

92 In the context of skills gaps, density is defined as the number of staff reported as not fully proficient as a proportion of all employment.

93 Scottish Government (2019), ‘Just Transition Commission: Background report’.

94 Scottish Government (2017), ‘Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics: education and training strategy’.