Publication - Statistics

GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2021 Quarter 3 (July to September)

Published: 9 February 2022
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

This publication includes the updated second estimate of onshore GDP growth in real terms for the second quarter of 2021, along with additional breakdowns of GDP by categories of income and expenditure, and key household sector economic statistics.

Main results

In 2021 Quarter 3 (July-September), Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, revised down from the previous estimate of 1.0% growth published on 15 December.
In quarterly terms, the level of GDP is now 2.2% below the level in 2019 Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec), prior to the impacts of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. This has been revised from the previous estimate of 1.9% below that level.
In Quarter 3 there was growth of 1.7% in the services sector, reflecting a slowdown from the 6.4% increase in Quarter 2 experienced as the lockdown restrictions in place during Quarter 1 were gradually eased. Output in the production sector fell by 3.5% in Quarter 3, after growing by 3.6% in Quarter 2. Construction output fell by 0.7% after growing by 3.5% in Quarter 2.

Information about this release

The coronavirus pandemic has led to a number of challenges in collecting and processing the data to calculate GDP. As a result, estimates from 2020 onwards are subject to more uncertainty than usual and may be more prone to revision over time. International comparisons, and comparisons within the UK, should be made with appropriate caution for the levels of uncertainty and variations in methods in use by different statistical institutes around the world.

In recent months, the Scottish Government has developed faster monthly estimates of real terms GDP growth. The latest experimental statistics release for November 2021 were published on 26 January, and indicated that in monthly terms the level of GDP was back above the level of February 2020 by 0.6%. The next release, for December 2021, will be published on 23 February.

About the GDP Quarterly National Accounts

This publication includes the second estimate of onshore GDP growth for 2021 Quarter 3 (July to September), which uses additional data released since the GDP First Estimate published on 15 December 2021. The results in this release are comparable to the UK Quarterly National Accounts for Quarter 3 published on 22 December 2021.

In addition to the second estimate of onshore growth in real terms, the GDP Quarterly National Accounts also includes:

Total GDP in nominal (cash) terms for the onshore economy and also the wider economy including offshore activities
Onshore GDP in nominal terms broken down using all three of the output, expenditure and income approaches
Experimental statistics estimates of the expenditure approach to GDP in real terms
Household Sector income and expenditure accounts for Scotland, including Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) and the Household Savings Ratio
Public sector revenues.

Data

The publication download includes a short summary of key results from the latest statistics. Full results for all components are available in the downloadable tables below