Publication - Statistics

GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2022 Quarter 2 (April to June)

Published: 2 November 2022
Directorate: Chief Economist Directorate
Topic: Economy

This publication includes updated estimate of onshore GDP growth in real terms up to the second quarter of 2022, along with additional breakdowns of GDP by categories of income and expenditure, and key household sector economic statistics, which are used for economic forecasting and modelling.

Key results

In 2022 Quarter 2, Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have remained flat compared to the previous quarter (0.0% growth). This result is unrevised from the first estimate for the quarter published on 31 August.
Output increased across parts of the services sector and construction, but was offset by falls in the manufacturing sector and reductions in coronavirus vaccination, testing and track and trace activity following the end of restrictions.
Revised estimates of annual GDP growth show that Scotland’s onshore GDP contracted by a downwardly revised 12.8% in 2020, followed by upwardly revised growth of 7.9% in 2011. The revisions mostly reflecting updated estimates of health service activity across the UK during the COVID-19 pandemic, reported in the latest UK GDP statistics.
In quarterly terms, the level of real GDP in Scotland’s onshore economy is now estimated to be 0.9% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019 Quarter 4.
Compared to the same quarter in 2021, income from employment is estimated to have increased by 6.3%. After accounting for other income, interest payments, taxes and social contributions, total gross disposable income is up by 4.2%. Over the same period, total consumer expenditure is estimated to have increased by 11.1%, driven by high price inflation. This means that the household savings ratio has reduced to the lowest level since 2018 Quarter 4, and indicates a tightening in household finances.

Information About This Release

The coronavirus pandemic led to a number of challenges in collecting and processing the data to calculate GDP. As a result, estimates for 2020 and 2021, in particular, are subject to more uncertainty than usual and may be more prone to revision over time. International comparisons, and comparisons within the UK, should be made with appropriate caution for the levels of uncertainty and variations in methods in use by different statistical institutes around the world.