GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2023 Quarter 4 (October to December)

Key Points

• In 2023 Quarter 4, Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.5%, revised up from the first estimate of a 0.6% fall published on 28 February. This follows downwardly revised growth of 0.3% in Quarter 3.
• In the latest quarter, output fell by 0.1% in the services sector, fell by 3.0% in the production sector, and fell by 0.9% in the construction sector.
• In 2023, annual GDP grew by 0.1% compared to 2022, revised down from the first estimate of 0.2% growth.
• The household saving ratio is estimated at 8.7% in the latest quarter, up from 7.0% at the same point last year.

Introduction

This publication includes updated estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for Scotland, along with a range of additional economic statistics which are used for economic forecasting and modelling.

The coronavirus pandemic led to a number of challenges in collecting and processing the data to calculate GDP, as well as having large impacts on the economy itself. As a result, estimates for the years 2020 to 2022 in particular are subject to more uncertainty than usual and may be more prone to revision over time.

International comparisons, and comparisons within the UK, should be made with appropriate caution for the levels of uncertainty and variations in methods in use by different statistical institutes around the world. The estimates of GDP from 2020 onwards are continuing to evolve as more data becomes available, and it is likely that these results, including comparative positions relative to pre-pandemic levels, will continue to change over the next several years.

An Accredited Official Statistics Publication for Scotland

These statistics are accredited official statistics. The Office for Statistics Regulation has independently reviewed and accredited these statistics as complying with the standards of trustworthiness, quality, and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. Quarterly National Accounts Scotland was accredited in January 2014, as detailed in Assessment Report 272.

Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Scottish Government statistics are regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR). OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.