GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2024 Quarter 2 (April to June)

GDP growth in volume terms

Headline quarterly GDP figures

Scotland’s onshore GDP (i.e. excluding offshore oil and gas) is estimated to have grown by 0.4% during 2024 quarter 2 (April to June), revised down from the first estimate of 0.6% growth published on 28 August. The growth in the latest quarter follows upwardly revised growth of 0.7% in quarter 1 (January to March), and a downwardly revised fall of 0.6% during 2023 Quarter 4 (October to December).

Taken over the last 12 months, compared to the same quarter in 2023, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 0.8%.

Annual GDP growth and comparisons to pre-pandemic levels

In 2023, annual GDP is now estimated to have grown by 0.2% compared to 2022, revised up from the previous estimate of 0.1%. This follows downwardly revised growth of 5.6% in 2022 and unrevised growth of 9.2% in 2021, after the fall of 12.0% in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.

The latest estimates show that, in 2024 quarter 2, GDP in Scotland is now 1.9% above the pre-pandemic level in 2019 Quarter 4.

Users should continue to be cautious about drawing firm conclusions based on comparisons between Scotland and the UK as a whole, or other countries, which include the periods of time when the economy was most severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. This includes the estimate of the latest level of GDP compared to the pre-pandemic level, and the size of changes in GDP during 2020 to 2022 in particular. The estimates of GDP from 2020 onwards are continuing to evolve as more data becomes available, and it is likely that these results will change again in future releases. A blog by the National Statistician gave useful information on the challenges of measuring GDP for this period of time.

Latest results by industry of output

In 2024 quarter 2, output in the services sector grew by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, with output growing in seven of the fourteen subsectors. The largest positive contributions to overall growth in the latest quarter were from the professional, scientific and technical services industry (+1.8%) and the other services subsector (+5.0%). The largest negative contribution to growth in the services sector was from the wholesale, retail and motor trades subsector (-1.2%). 

Output in the production sector grew by 1.1% overall, with growth in three of the four main subsectors, including an increase of 1.5% in manufacturing and fall of 1.8% in electricity and gas supply.

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have fallen by 0.2% during quarter 2.

The downloadable GDP in volume terms tables include more detailed breakdowns of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as estimates of GDP per head and annual GDP growth back to 1963.

Estimates of GDP growth in volume terms based on the expenditure approach to GDP (consumption, government expenditure, investment and trade) are also available in the downloadable other national accounts summary tables. These figures are currently designated as official statistics in development and are principally published for use by analysts, for example as inputs to economic forecasts.

The Monthly GDP estimates give a more detailed indication of the trends for each industry sector, and include results up to August 2024 at the time of release.