Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2008-09

7 CONCLUSION

The aim of GERS is to enhance public understanding of fiscal issues in Scotland. The primary objective is to estimate a detailed set of public sector accounts for Scotland through an analysis of official UK and Scottish Government financial statistics.

Incorporating a share of the expenditure associated with the UK Government's financial sector interventions, in 2008-09, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £10.5 billion (9.1 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £9.4 billion (8.0 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a surplus of £1.3 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue. These estimates are comparable with the estimate of the UK's current budget balance published in the March 2010 UK Budget.

Not including a share of the UK Government's financial sector interventions, in 2008-09, the estimated current budget balance for the public sector in Scotland was a deficit of £10.5 billion (9.1 per cent of GDP) excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £9.4 billion (8.0 per cent of GDP) including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a surplus of £1.2 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue.

Incorporating a share of the expenditure associated with the UK Government's financial sector interventions, in 2008-09, the estimated net fiscal balance was a deficit of £15.5 billion (13.5 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £14.5 billion (12.2 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £3.8 billion (2.6 per cent of GDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included. This is comparable with the estimate of UK net borrowing published in the March 2010 UK Budget.

Not including a share of the UK Government's financial sector interventions, in 2008-09, the estimated net fiscal balance in Scotland, that is the estimated current budget balance plus estimated net capital investment, was a deficit of £14.7 billion (12.8 per cent of GDP) when excluding North Sea revenue, a deficit of £13.6 billion (11.5 per cent of GDP) when including a per capita share of North Sea revenue or a deficit of £3.0 billion (2.1 per cent of GDP) when an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue is included.

Between 2007-08 and 2008-09, Scottish revenues (excluding North Sea revenues) decreased from £45.0 billion to £43.5 billion, a decline of 3.5 per cent. The equivalent UK figures fell by 3.7 per cent. Over this period, total managed expenditure in Scotland increased by 6.0 per cent.

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