Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2021-22

Annex A Supplementary Tables

This section presents supplementary tables on public sector revenue and expenditure in Scotland.

Table A.1 below shows the population figures used in calculating per head estimates in GERS.

Note: Financial year estimates are calculated as the weighted average of the relevant mid-year estimates. I.e., the 2019-20 population is estimated as three-quarters of the 2019 population plus one quarter of the 2020 population.

Table A.2 below shows the relationship between revenue, current expenditure, and the current budget balance, and then the transition from the current budget balance to the net fiscal balance.

GDP

Table A.3 below provides the financial year GDP estimates used in GERS.

Source: Quarterly National Accounts Scotland, Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot); ONS

Note: Scottish GDP including a geographical share of the North Sea also includes a population share of UK overseas public administration and defence activity. Table E in Quarterly National Accounts Scotland provides a more detailed breakdown.

General Government estimates

The headline GERS figures cover the whole of the public sector. As such, they include revenue and expenditure associated with public corporations such as Scottish Water and the Bank of England. They are on a financial year basis.

When conducting international comparisons, bodies such as the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) present figures on a calendar year basis and covering only general government; i.e., excluding public corporations. In order to help comparisons with such figures, the table below presents the GERS net fiscal balance results on this basis. As revenue and expenditure are primarily estimated on a financial year and public sector basis, the calendar year estimates below are illustrative and have been derived by apportioning the main GERS estimates.

Confidence intervals

A number of the revenues in GERS are based on survey estimates. As such, they have an associated statistical uncertainty. The table below presents the 95% confidence intervals associated with these revenues. Other revenues are based on administrative data, or modelled data for which confidence intervals are not available. Estimates are not presented for these revenues. Expenditure is primarily based on administrative data, and therefore confidence intervals are not presented for expenditure.

Although tobacco duties and alcohol duties are both based on the Living Costs and Food Survey, the confidence interval for alcohol is larger. This is because the methodology for calculating alcohol duties uses more disaggregate survey data to reflect the different levels of duty, and revenue, received from different types of alcohol. This lower level survey data has a correspondingly larger uncertainty.

Note that the confidence intervals relate to the latest year of survey data. As GERS often uses data from previous years to estimate values for the latest year, there will likely be larger uncertainty around the latest year estimates than suggested by the table below.

1 The estimate of VAT uncertainty is a Scottish Government estimate, based on data published as part of the Scottish VAT Assignment experimental statistics publication^[29]

Amendments to the Country and Regional Analysis database

A number of significant improvements have been made to the HM Treasury Country and Regional Analysis (CRA) database in recent years to apportion expenditure more accurately to countries and regions of the UK. For the first time, CRA 2017-18 included a detailed line by line description of the methodology used to apportion spending. While many concerns in previous editions of the CRA have been addressed and are now reflected in both CRA 2020‑21 and this GERS report, a small number of supplementary amendments to the CRA 2020‑21 dataset are made in producing GERS. The aim of these refinements is to ensure that the public sector expenditure figure for Scotland captures as accurately as possible expenditure for the benefit of Scottish residents.

The amendments made to the CRA in producing this edition of GERS are shown in Table A.6. They are discussed in the detailed expenditure methodology paper available at:

Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

As the CRA for 2021-22 is not yet published, there are no formal amendments to individual spending lines in 2021-22. The 2020-21 adjustments are in effect carried forward into 2021‑22, adjusted for the spending of the responsible department. Further detail is provided in the expenditure methodology note.

Note: Amendments do not include EU Transactions

Expenditure accounting adjustments

Spending in GERS is based on the HM Treasury Total Expenditure on Services (TES) concept, which accounts for around 90% of total spending. Accounting adjustments are used to move from TES to Total Managed Expenditure (TME), the primary measure of public spending used in the UK Public Sector Finances. As discussed in Chapter 1, for the majority of these adjustments, accompanying adjustments are included in revenue estimates, and therefore do not affect the net fiscal balance or current budget balance. This is shown in more detail in Table A.10.

Some elements of COVID-19 expenditure continue to be captured through accounting adjustments. These include business support grants which are administered by local authorities as agents as central government, and therefore have not been included in local government spending.

1 The Housing Revenue Account (HRA) is classified as a public corporation by the ONS, which means that they pay dividends on their profits to local authorities. To ensure that these dividends are non-negative, the ONS imputes a subsidy from local authorities to HRAs to cover any shortfall (offset in public corporation gross operating surplus, which scores on the revenue side of the account).

2 Renewable Obligation Certificates are bought and sold by energy companies. The ONS has decided that these flows should be channelled through central government and so impute offsetting amounts of spending and income.

1, 2 See notes to Table A.7

The table below shows which parts of the Scottish expenditure accounting adjustments are included as revenues, and where they appear in the revenue tables.

Reconciliation to published Scottish Government and Scottish Local Government budgets

There are a number of differences between the figures for spending by Scottish Government and Local Authorities presented in Table 3.8 and figures presented in Scottish Government budgets and Scottish Local Government Finance Statistics. The key differences relate to accounting treatments, particularly of pensions, VAT refunds, and depreciation.

GERS uses National Accounts principles, which show actual pensions expenditure, and which shows gross expenditure before VAT refunds. Depreciation in GERS is based on the concept of capital consumption, which uses estimates of the value of assets used to provide services in terms of current asset values.

In contrast, budget documents use financial accounting principles, which include a measure of future liabilities of pension funds, and which shows net expenditure after VAT refunds. Depreciation is based on historical asset prices.

A more detailed description of the differences is provided in Box 5.2 of GERS 2013‑14.

chapter 5: Public Sector Expenditure - Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2013-14 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

Table A.10 below shows the reconciliation of published Scottish Government and Scottish Local Government Finance figures to the figures published in the CRA and GERS. This shows figures for 2020-21 rather than 2021-22, as this is the latest year for which published accounts are available for both the Scottish Government and Scottish local government. 2021-22 figures in GERS are based on provisional outturn estimates.

1 Scottish Government Budget 2022-23 Annex D

2 These are adjustments made to Scottish Government spending in HM Treasury's CRA publication. They primarily relate to spending on museums and pensions, to reflect where spending undertaken by the Scottish Government benefits residents from the rest of the UK.

3 Scottish Local Government Finance Statistics 2020-21, LA Level -3. Revenue Expenditure and Income by Service and Type. Total General Fund (excluding the Housing Revenue Account and trading with the public) employee costs, operating costs, and support services costs after statutory adjustments, less interauthority recharges (adjustments for LFR purposes).

4 As Note 3. Total General Fund (excluding the Housing Revenue Account and trading with the public) income less government grants

5 Scottish Local Government Finance Statistics 2020-21, publication tables Capital Expenditure (chart 3.1) and Financing (chart 3.5). All services total gross capital expenditure.

6 As Note 5. Total capital fund and capital receipts.

7 See Table A.8