Grangemouth industrial just transition plan: island communities impact assessment - screening

1. Objectives

The Grangemouth industrial cluster is responsible for circa 7.2% of Scotland’s total GHG emission. Our work is attempting to establish a cluster-based approach to maximise opportunities to address this significant geographic source point of emissions – supporting the industrial operators to achieve net-zero whilst also embedding wider Just Transition outcomes as critical requirements of the transition.

The overarching aim of the Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (GMJTP) is to provide strategic outline and guide decision making in support of an economically prosperous future for the manufacturing cluster, that is both compatible with net-zero targets, and improves outcomes for those living and working there.

The plan aims to develop and support the delivery of a business credible pathway to achieving net zero by 2045 in Grangemouth, in line with the Scottish Government’s wider targets for Scotland. It includes a socio-economic baseline of Grangemouth currently, a vision for the Grangemouth cluster in 2045, a proposed actions plan that could be completed to support delivery of the vision, and a monitoring framework.

The intended outcomes of the plan are guided by the Scottish Government’s National Just Transition Planning Framework. This framework outlines four areas across which Just Transition benefits should be achieved. These are : Jobs, Skills and Economic Opportunities, Community and Place, People and Equity, and Environment, Biodiversity and Adaptation. The Scottish Government has identified a range of Grangemouth-specific matters within each of these four outcomes for targeted action.

This plan has been further developed in line with the Scottish Government’s Just Transition policy, meaning it will be both co-designed and iterative. Resultantly, the plan has been developed with and will sit as the strategic guiding document for the Grangemouth Future Industry Board which consists of representatives across industry, the workforce, the public sector including both the Scottish and UK Governments as well as the wider Grangemouth community.

The plan is geographically limited to the Grangemouth industrial cluster and surrounding area. As such we do not foresee any direct impact on Island residents. Through the development and publication of this plan, we do not have any intention to suggest new policies for Island residents.

Data and Stakeholders

We have been unable to identify substantive data that would suggest any clear links between the Grangemouth cluster and island communities. We have concluded that efforts to collate or generate new datasets would be significant and yield limited tangible evidence, in contrast to the scope of the wider programme of work.

The only evidencable link between Grangemouth and the Islands is the manufacture of aviation fuel; the Grangemouth refinery is currently responsible for 100% of Scotland’s aviation fuel and this will have a clear influence on connectivity to mainland Scotland. Demand for other fuels including petrol and diesel, kerosene are sourced from other providers.

As the Grangemouth cluster transitions, cluster operators will consider the technical and commercial viability of new low carbon products including Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and future decisions here should consider how Island communities remain connected. However, the GMJTP in its current form, will not have an imminent influence on either the volume of traditional jet fuel supplied from Grangemouth or new products such as SAF or the subsequent availability to Island communities. Moreso, it will focus on supporting the decision making process in aid of achieving wider positive benefits for the region of Grangemouth.

Our stakeholders are comprised of the wider Scottish public sector including government agencies and Falkirk Council, Grangemouth community representatives, Grangemouth’s industrial leadership, the Grangemouth industrial workforce, relevant academic bodies, further and higher education and the UK Government.

These stakeholders are all represented on the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB). The Board’s make up includes an operational level Programme Board which is responsible for activity and a strategic level Leadership Forum which is attended by Scottish and UK Government ministers, CEOs, union convenors and community leaders).

When considering changes in the industrial makeup of the Grangemouth Cluster, we do not foresee any outsized impacts on the Islands if new operators move in or, old ones cease to operate.