Grangemouth Industrial Cluster - draft Just Transition plan: consultation

We are seeking views on the proposed vision and Just Transition Plan for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster (Supporting a fair transition for Scotland's core manufacturing cluster), which we have set out in the draft document. We want the views of community, business, third sector and all those with an interest in Grangemouth to shape the final publication in 2025.


Monitoring and Evaluation Framework

To achieve a Just Transition for the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster, GFIB has set out an ambitious vision for the cluster in 2045. To make this vision a reality it must be underpinned by a set of representative outcomes which reflect The National Just Transition Outcomes. These outcomes have been distilled into themes to aid the development of Scottish Government's Just Transition Plans, including for Grangemouth.

Using this as a base objective, the first step in developing a monitoring and evaluation framework for the Grangemouth Just Transition Plan is
the establishment of Grangemouth specific outcomes, of which, progress
can be tracked over time using
qualitative and quantitative data indicators. These indicators are listed against Grangemouth specific Just Transition Outcomes in Table 1.

The indicators have been chosen based on relevance, validity and practicality, including availability and re-publishing frequency. There are instances where appropriate indicators are deemed to not be currently available, or a cause-effect relationship between existing data and outcome cannot be made. In those cases, we endeavour to work on data development and remain committed to scrutinising emerging data sources for relevance. We will draw up the expertise of the members of the GFIB Programme Board to find organisations which are best suited to developing these novel indicators.

Table 1: Grangemouth Just Transition Outcomes and Indicators (indicators marked with ** denote need to develop said new indicator)

Outcome

Indicators

Jobs, Skills and Economic Opportunities (ECON)

1. Grangemouth continues to be a thriving manufacturing hub for the Scottish economy, increasing the scale and pace of innovation and acts as an anchor point for new and emerging industries of the future by driving research in new climate compatible manufacturing.

  • GVA for manufacturing sector
  • Business count by size band and type (manufacturing)
  • Business spend on R&D and innovation**

2. Grangemouth's transition to net zero supports new and existing fair and well-paid jobs across its operations and supply chain in Scotland and, the Grangemouth workforce is diverse and advances equality of opportunity for all.

  • Total employment in manufacturing and related industries in Falkirk Area
  • Average salary
  • Claimant count

3. A decarbonised Grangemouth serves a range of domestic and global net zero markets, has better leveraged public and private investment, identifying areas where it can support the reduction of regional inequality, supporting a strong, dynamic and productive economy which creates equitable wealth and high-quality employment.

  • Supply chain links (export of goods and energy)**
  • Private investment leveraged in Grangemouth economic / industrial development and transition to net zero**

4. Grangemouth retains and develops its role as an integral part of the energy supply chain, enabling wider decarbonisation of e.g. the transport and industrial sectors, through production of climate compatible fuels.

  • Tonnage of liquid bulk imports and exports (by type) at Forth Port
  • Percentage of Scottish energy market served**
  • Energy production capacity**

Outcome

Indicators

Communities and Places (COMM)

5. Where a clear connection exists, industry / industrial decarbonation supports the development of clean, safe, green, accessible and improved public and private spaces that are fit for purpose, build resilience and provide wider benefits for people, health and wellbeing, and biodiversity, in a balanced way.

  • Green/blue space access
  • Green/blue space satisfaction
  • Surveys about new GD projects e.g; 'Creating Great Places'**

6. Grangemouth has improved coordination of structural levers needed to support the transition in Grangemouth (planning; electricity supply; infrastructure) and the impacts of these developments on wider stakeholders are known and addressed.

  • Population within 500 metres of a derelict site
  • Map of electricity network, project wait times

7. Grangemouth has an enhanced relationship between community and industry, as well as other actors, with greater presence and visibility of industry activity and developments in typically non-industrial spaces. Grangemouth has an enhanced sense of pride in its industrial strength.

  • Rating neighbourhood as a good/very good place to live
  • Survey of effectiveness of GFIB as a forum for community to voice concerns regarding industrial transformation**

8. Communities are empowered. Strong community links ensure that a wide representative demographic are represented and meaningfully engaged and their views have been considered at each of the decision–making process regarding the long-term future of the industrial cluster and its impact on the wider place of Grangemouth.

  • % agreeing with statement, 'This is a neighbourhood where local people take action to help improve the neighbourhood'
  • Number of community events held by GFIB partners regarding policy affecting the area, attendance**

Outcome

Indicators

People and Equity (EQUI)

9. Health, wealth and wellbeing of the residents of Grangemouth has increased, proportionally, alongside the economic and sustainable growth of the future industrial cluster.

  • PHS data for health outcomes
  • Population prescribed drugs for mental health reasons
  • Same as Outcome 5, track access to Green / Blue Spaces

10. Costs of industrial decarbonisation are shared fairly on the basis of ability to pay.

  • Percentage households reporting financial difficulties
  • Population income deprived

11. Opportunities to leverage the industrial clusters large energy demands in support of reducing local fuel poverty are fully explored and where opportunities are identified, all responsible actors across the public and private sector are obliged maximise the success of specific projects.

  • Fuel poverty, Scottish Housing Condition Survey

12. Local residents have improved access to job opportunities existing or future stemming from the industrial cluster and are not disadvantaged by e.g. long travelling distances to gain access to required education.

  • Unemployment rate for Falkirk local authority area
  • 'Positive destinations' for School Leavers
  • Funding available for apprenticeships

Adaptation, Biodiversity and Environment (ENVT)

13. Environmental regulation supports innovation and the transition to achieving net zero and a circular economy whilst maintaining high standards and levels of protection for communities and the environment.

  • GHG emissions via SPRI
  • Business waste by type
  • Survey about industrial operators' experience with Regulatory Hub**

14. The exposure of residents and workers in Grangemouth, but particularly the oldest, youngest and those with pre-existing medical conditions, to poor air quality is minimised.

  • Air quality data for Grangemouth
  • Long-term respiratory conditions outpatients, NHS Forth Valley**

15. Existing and future infrastructure is designed and embedded in a way that improves and restores habitats and ecosystems, and increases resilience to a changing climate, to meet the objectives of Scotland's Biodiversity Strategy.

  • GHG emissions via SPRI
  • Air quality data for Grangemouth

16. As an asset of national importance, innovative and appropriate options are identified and adopted for protecting and adapting the cluster and surrounding area from the impacts of climate change.

  • Amount invested in climate mitigation and adaptation projects/companies pursuing net zero-adjacent work at Grangemouth**

We have consulted with GFIB partners to gather these potential indicators. As mentioned above, where indicators are not available in the publicly, we are determined to develop appropriate indicators and, gathering data held within GFIB partners' organisations to aid monitoring and evaluation.

Following the publication of this document the Monitoring and Evaluation approach will enter into a period of consultation. We will then collaborate with stakeholders across industry, academia and the public sector in the to build on these metrics and develop a comprehensive monitoring and evaluation framework. A final Monitoring and Evaluation framework will also take into account the actions that will need to be scheduled to achieve the ambitious visions we have set out for Grangemouth.

Consultation

Whilst this document is in consultation we are seeking feedback on the monitoring and evaluation approach, as it stands. We will consider suggested changes around the Outcomes themselves and data sources used to monitor the progress towards the Grangemouth Just Transition Outcomes.

Contact

Email: grangemouthjusttransition@gov.scot

Back to top